Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Gallup: Final: MON 11/05: R:49 O:48
Drudge Report ^ | 11/05/2012 | Gallup/Drudge

Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer

GALLUP: R 49% O 48%

(Excerpt) Read more at DrudgeReport.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; gallup; obama; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-105 next last
Sadly, I predicted it. Some of this is special sauce and some of this is THU and FRI, post Sandy
1 posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Still, Romney up!

I don’t buy the landslide talk from either side. Going to come down to a couple swing states.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 10:12:45 AM PST by TigerClaws
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Sadly, I had called it at 9 AM CST
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955125/posts#31


3 posted on 11/05/2012 10:13:14 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

1% is enough according to one of Nate Silvers recent articles:

Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.

But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/


4 posted on 11/05/2012 10:13:42 AM PST by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Still not too bad. Thu and Fri were good Obama days.

Romney wins by 1%, he wins the election.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 10:15:35 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Is this Gallup faking it or is it the Sandy/christie/media/bls bump?

No matter what Gallup does Romney will win and we’ll save our country from this communist Obama.

China makes most of our stuff: Obama makes U.S. uncompetitive

The U.S. economy is crap . We can’t even make most of our own stuff we use as China is making that and beating us. Obama has been president for 4 years so it’s that piece of crap’s fault.Obama’s socialism has destroyed the U.S. economy . We have much more coal, oil, shale oil , natural gas etc. than China but Obama is restricting energy production which could have created cheap energy for manufacturers . Instead China is building 1 coal power plant per week and makes most things we use ( more every day but the media lies and says the economy is great). 17 million more people on food stamps, 8 million more on disability , 20 million more unemployed. millions of manufacturing jobs lost , 50% college grads can’t find jobs, other good jobs replaced with fast food jobs and part time jobs all this with 6 trillion $ in debt it added on us . after election Obama ‘s EPA plans to almost completely shut down coal,oil, natural gas etc. Don’t you democrats and other voters for Obama get it socialism never works


6 posted on 11/05/2012 10:15:38 AM PST by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I couldn’t care less about national polls to be honest. Good to gauge movement but hardly indicative to the swing states.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 10:16:19 AM PST by smith288 (Peace at all costs gives you tyranny free of charge)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Raycpa

Seriously, why do you keep bringing up Nate Silver?

The guy is a partisan hack and said Obama had an 80% chance of being re-elected. He makes PPP look good.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 10:18:41 AM PST by Shadow44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I still think all the pollsters have basically got together and done a big ole C YA, none of them want to be out on a limb.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 10:18:45 AM PST by sunmars
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Bottom line number in Gallup:

O still can’t crack 50%.

Its over. He certainly is not going to get 48% - he’ll get less as losing candidates usually do.

How much we’ll have to wait to find out tomorrow night.

Again, Williard Mitt Romney WILL be our President!


10 posted on 11/05/2012 10:19:18 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Photobucket

Excuse the points of discontinuity in the graph, but it is appropriate considering how these pollsters are thinking. I swear if you did a graph of their brainwaves it would be a four-cusped hypocycloid.

11 posted on 11/05/2012 10:19:44 AM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

As Rush is saying the Dems are VERY over sampled. The polls really are Romney/Ryan 51 and Obama/Bite me 35%. Just vote.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 10:20:46 AM PST by Singermom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I think this is great news. I assumed Obama would get his 47% that Romney talked about plus 1% for their efforts. This leaves the remaining 3% divided up as 2 for Romney and 1 for Obama for total of 51% to 49%. 2% is enough for electoral win.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 10:22:02 AM PST by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Raycpa

From what I understand NEVER in Gallup’s history of polling has a candidate been ahead as late as October 25 and lost the election.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 10:22:37 AM PST by Outraged At FLA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Raycpa

So essentially Mr Silver is predicting a Popular/Electoral Vote split. Interesting prediction.

It’s turnout folks! I hope all of us in swing states are making sure all of our like-minded family/friends and co-workers are getting to the polls!


15 posted on 11/05/2012 10:24:34 AM PST by SuperGater
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Shadow44
Seriously, why do you keep bringing up Nate Silver?

Because smug numbers guys annoy me to no end. I have done modeling in the accounting world for 30 plus years and I have learned to be very humble about projections. Nate has no such humbleness and it grates at me.

16 posted on 11/05/2012 10:25:35 AM PST by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Democrat_media
Who knows. I guess tomorrow we will see if it has come to the point that they only tell you if a dem is winning.

In the past you could at least get a clue from the last poll of these companies if the Republican is winning.

17 posted on 11/05/2012 10:26:54 AM PST by Lady Heron
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Raycpa

O will NOT get 48% tomorrow night - losing candidates always perform worse relative to their final result.

Now its true PEW shows Obama at 50% but this is a poll that is heavily D+ oversampled - D+6 and an outlier and so it can be tossed out.

Ras and Gallup understate Romney’s winning margin - it probably be 53% 46% 1% which is about right where it should be.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 10:27:23 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Just seems odd that Gallup would be the one major pollster showing Romney +5 to +7 for over a week and then suddenly suspend polling operations on account of a hurricane and not report again until the day before the election - only to basically mirror the Romney +1 that the competition is reporting.

I guess it's good they still have Romney up but I'm not buying that Obama got a 4-6 point bounce just because he put his arms around Chris Christie and pretended to care (for just a day) about a hurricane.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 10:31:12 AM PST by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

I figure the Democrat machine that can generate votes with walking around money, late poll shenanigans, multiple voters, and use of false media reports and exit polling are good for at least 1% point.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 10:31:21 AM PST by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Would like to see the differences by day. I wonder which candidate (if either) gained momentum on Saturday or Sunday. My guess is Romney did, but that is just a guess.

I know one thing. If conservatives show up and vote tomorrow. We win.

If they stay home in protest, we lose. Period.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 10:31:32 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Is this registered voters or likely voters? Gallup publishes both. If it’s likely voters, it’s bad news; if it’s registered voters, the election is in the bag for Romney.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 10:32:16 AM PST by dangus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

I’m telling you, all those pollsters have got together and deicded to put it at a tie so none of them lose face. Its smells, it totally does.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 10:32:39 AM PST by sunmars
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Bottomline.

Romney leads in both Gallup and Rasmussen on final day. While Romney has all the enthusiasm.

Who’d you rather be? I’ll take being in the lead.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 10:32:47 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

If you can GET your arms around Chris Christie you deserve something.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 10:34:46 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Gallup is almost always right, except for Dewey-Truman and Ford-Carter they’ve picked the winner:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx


26 posted on 11/05/2012 10:35:17 AM PST by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

This poll is probably D+2.

Gallup decided to play it safe.

If its R+1 or R+2 tomorrow, Romney should skate safely home with plenty of electoral votes to spare.

Which brings us to the main question: will this election be closer to 2008 or closer to 2010?

I’m betting it’ll be closer to 2010.


27 posted on 11/05/2012 10:35:20 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

This actually mirrors the Susquehanna PA poll, which took 2 points off of Romney and added them to Obama this weekend.

I can see Obama gaining 2 points from the undecideds last week. But what could make 2 points worth of voters who had said they were voting for Romney previously change their mind? I can only assume Obama’s running effective negative ads in some states. I haven’t seen many Obama ads in PA.

To me this is close enough that an unexpected Tea Party surge could come in and close the deal for Romney. What worries me there is a last-minute surge of Obama-mania, from the braindead folks who barely even knew there was an election coming up until the last few days. If they haven’t been paying attention, they’ll go in tomorrow and just vote for the bigger brand name, Obama.


28 posted on 11/05/2012 10:35:42 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: sunmars

At what Romney margin DO they lose face? 1,2,3,4,5,10,any?


29 posted on 11/05/2012 10:36:51 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

what do the internals tell you?


30 posted on 11/05/2012 10:38:05 AM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Look folks, A one percent Gallup lead is better then a tie!!! Now for the real skinny. Polls, this time around, do not mean anything. These pollsters have weighted these polls so skewed with false Democrat percentages, they are useless. There are significantly more folks that identify themselves as Republicans then there are folks who call themselves Democrats.

Simple facts: Rally Crowd size, Romney wins, Energy/Enthusism, Romney wins, voter turnout Romney wins and yes...even with the Rasmussen/Gallup numbers, Romney still wins. If fact: Lots of you naysayers are going to be dumbfounded on the positive results for Romney/Ryan tomorrow evening. I am a “demographic” fanatic....and study the numbers below the top, Romney blows Obama away!!!

And....even if that is not true.....life is going to miserable for Obama with the House remaining Pubbie and the strong possibility the Senate turning Republican. However, we will have a triple win tomorrow night of massive proportions.....so give up on the negative and...live on the positive. ABO!!! And.....should Romney not be successful, we must continue the fight. Benghasi, Libya will cripple Obama...he will be a real lame duck from day one!!!


31 posted on 11/05/2012 10:38:48 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Well the silver lining in this is that every Romney voter is going to show up on Tuesday. If Gallup still had Romney up by 5 or more, we could have some people staying home thinking Romney had it in the bag. But with a one point difference, this should fire up everybody who wants to see Obama gone.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 10:39:02 AM PST by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
How does Gallup go from 51%-46% to a dead heat?

Are most of the pollsters calling it this way because none of them has any idea what's really going on?

Or, do I smell Chris Christie smirking somewhere after he did everything he could to make Obama look good during a disaster to open the door for 2016? Hopefully, that fat sack of poop doesn't want to be anything more than Governor of NJ.

33 posted on 11/05/2012 10:39:50 AM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sunmars

Agree that it stinks but not IMHO because they got together to rig the outcome, but rather because they are all motivated by the same thing: to tilt the results as far as possible in favor of Obama, who is their guy, but to end up with “the race suddenly tightening” enough that they will salvage their credibility for the next election cycle.


34 posted on 11/05/2012 10:40:48 AM PST by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

My Final: R-53%, O-46%, Others-1%


35 posted on 11/05/2012 10:40:59 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

Chill!

ALL the polls are based on D+2 electorate coming out, which is why its so tight.

If its really R+1 or R+2, things begin to look dramatically different.

We won’t know how high GOP turnout is going to be! This is a turnout election and the Romney Campaign will have to get all its voters out to the polls.

The only way Romney can lose if he doesn’t attend to his GOTV operation.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 10:41:54 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Gallup has only been wrong on picking the winner twice.

Dewey over Truman and Ford over Carter.

Bulk of undecideds go to challenger.

I rather be RR than OB.


37 posted on 11/05/2012 10:42:53 AM PST by Reaganez
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
If its really R+1 or R+2, things begin to look dramatically different.

And how dramatic if Ras turns out to be correct:

Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)
38 posted on 11/05/2012 10:45:24 AM PST by DaveInDallas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Democrat_media

Whose bright idea was it to save Chinese Communism by importing cheap products made with slave labor?

If China were the Southern States - the Federal Gubmint would prohibit Interstate commerce; the Unions would be in an uproar and there would be a civil war!!!


39 posted on 11/05/2012 10:47:14 AM PST by sodpoodle (Life is prickly - carry tweezers.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

There’s no way it’s like 2008 or 2010. Too many Obama-maniacs in 2008 and in a mid-term election with no “sexy” national candidate, the intelligent voters who pay attention to how politics affects their lives, a.k.a. the conservatives easily ruled the day.

This is looking much more like 2004, a close election where just one state like Ohio switching would have given the win to Kerry. I certainly wouldn’t predict beyond what Krauthammer and Hannity are saying, a narrow 270-290 Romney win.

However, I’m afraid that, just as in 2004, negativism against the incumbent won’t be enough to carry the day. The opposition party also needs a candidate they admire on his own merits. Romney was nowhere near that 3 months ago. He improved with the first debate, but did no better than treading water since then.


40 posted on 11/05/2012 10:47:44 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

If that latest Rasmussen Party ID affiliation is correct, this is going to be a MASSIVE BLOWOUT!!

Republicans UP 3% - DUmmies DOWN almost 2% from the 2010 elections

And we ALL KNOW what happened then! This has GOT to be a 55-45 BLOWOUT or BETTER!

I want to do some SERIOUS channel surfing tomorrow when the poll results start rolling in, to experience the SHOCK AND AWE the Media Morons are gonna hopefully get!


41 posted on 11/05/2012 10:51:02 AM PST by RogerWilko
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

I didn’t get that impression from the campaign events over the weekend.

We are a divided country in many ways but more people want change than the status quo this year.

That desire for it is the only reason Americans are ready to fire the President. Its all about the economy, stupid.

If it had been in good shape, Obama would have been easily re-elected.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 10:52:40 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I don’t know why everybody is wiggin’ out over this. The trend is our friend, Romney is ahead of Obama. Barry has never reached 50% in one of these polls. He’s not gonna win this election.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 10:53:04 AM PST by Bridesheadfan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Raycpa
Nate has no such humbleness and it grates at me.

Excellent comment. A big problem for Silver is that he doesn't note that his "Obama 83% likely to win" should read, even with his flawed model, "Obama 83% +/- 15%". He does not note that there is variance in his model.

And while PECOTA is a good model for baseball forecasting, you can grab any issue of Baseball Prospectus and see how far off many of his estimates were.

I don't think he's insincere, but I do think his models have flaws and he refuses to acknowledge those flaws; instead projecting an aura of certitude that you can't do in mathematical modeling.

44 posted on 11/05/2012 10:54:17 AM PST by Numbers Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I don’t know why everybody is wiggin’ out over this. The trend is our friend, Romney is ahead of Obama. Barry has never reached 50% in one of these polls. He’s not gonna win this election.


45 posted on 11/05/2012 10:56:56 AM PST by Bridesheadfan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

What is nuts about the Rasmussen and Gallup polls is that they are not sampling based on there own party identification polls. Gallup has R+3 and Rasmussen R+5.


46 posted on 11/05/2012 10:59:22 AM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Right in line with what I expected. Sandra gave Obama a large bounce, we musn’t kid ourselves. I am heartened to see that R maintains at least a minimal lead in this one, because it tells me that in all likelihood, Obama’s bounce was short lived, and the current reality, at this very moment in time, is more favorable to Romney that even this poll suggests, because a lot of the “bounce” is still in there.


47 posted on 11/05/2012 11:00:29 AM PST by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
What is nuts about the Rasmussen and Gallup polls is that they are not sampling based on there own party identification polls. Gallup has R+3 and Rasmussen R+5.

And I think it's Ras that shows more Republicans voting for Obama this year compared to 2008. Not bloody likely.
48 posted on 11/05/2012 11:02:34 AM PST by DaveInDallas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Love your country
VOTE ROMNEY/ RYAN


49 posted on 11/05/2012 11:04:02 AM PST by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
Romney wins by 1%, he wins the election.

Somebody forgot to consider voter fraud

50 posted on 11/05/2012 11:07:03 AM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-105 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson