Gallup: Final: MON 11/05: R:49 O:48

Drudge Report ^ | 11/05/2012 | Gallup/Drudge

[Preachin']

Here is my attempt to simplify what we need to be watching for on Election Day:

First, we can start by assuming that Romney will win every state that McCain won. That will give Romney 180 electoral college points.

There are a number of states that are considered to be toss-ups to some degree. Obama won all of these in 2008:

Ohio has 18 points and McCain lost it by 4%.

Pennsylvania has 20 points and McCain lost it by 10.4%.

North Carolina has 15 points and McCain lost it by .4%.

Florida has 29 points and McCain lost it by 2.5%.

Indiana has 11 points and McCain lost it by .9%.

Virginia has 13 points and McCain lost it by 6.3%.

Iowa has 6 points and McCain lost it by 9.3%.

Colorado has 9 points and McCain lost it by 8.6%.

New Hampshire has 4 points and McCain lost it by 9.5%.

Wisconsin has xx points and McCain lost it by 13.9%.

Since the states that McCain won carry 180 electoral college points, the math tells us that Romney needs to win an additional 90 points to reach the required minimum total of 270.

That list I created above accounts for 135 electoral college points, and Romney needs to win 90 of them (assuming he holds all of McCain’s states. That means that we simply need to observe and see that Obama does not obtain more than 45 of those votes above.

I am not here to make predictions, but thought this layout may help others have a better idea of what is going on. I know there are a lot of people here that have tremendous skills at this, but this seems to simplify it for people like me that want the simple facts.

I have thick skin, and easily accept corrections to anything I have posted here.

[Preachin']

Wisconsin has 10 points....

[Shelayne]

This GOTV machine looks well-oiled!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2955364/posts?q=1&;page=51

[StAnDeliver]

"But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama"

MasterNate ignores polls he doesn't like -- even if one was 2008's Most Accurate and the other poll has been around since Moses ... Why would anyone willingly line up to be tar & feathered like Zogby is beyond me. It has to be the attention whore at the core of every Millenial KosKid.

[StAnDeliver]

"This poll is probably D+2. Gallup decided to play it safe."

Then D+2 wins it for Romney, as I said it would on Sunday.

Taking Gallup D+2 at 49-48 the election is Romney's, because Ohio GOP PV is equal to or greater than National GOP PV for 3 straight elections. No Ohio for Bobo, no path to victory...