Excuse the points of discontinuity in the graph, but it is appropriate considering how these pollsters are thinking. I swear if you did a graph of their brainwaves it would be a four-cusped hypocycloid.
Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
GALLUP: R 49% O 48%
(Excerpt) Read more at DrudgeReport.com ...
Still, Romney up!
I don’t buy the landslide talk from either side. Going to come down to a couple swing states.
Sadly, I had called it at 9 AM CST
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955125/posts#31
1% is enough according to one of Nate Silvers recent articles:
Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.
But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.
Still not too bad. Thu and Fri were good Obama days.
Romney wins by 1%, he wins the election.
Is this Gallup faking it or is it the Sandy/christie/media/bls bump?
No matter what Gallup does Romney will win and we’ll save our country from this communist Obama.
China makes most of our stuff: Obama makes U.S. uncompetitive
The U.S. economy is crap . We can’t even make most of our own stuff we use as China is making that and beating us. Obama has been president for 4 years so it’s that piece of crap’s fault.Obama’s socialism has destroyed the U.S. economy . We have much more coal, oil, shale oil , natural gas etc. than China but Obama is restricting energy production which could have created cheap energy for manufacturers . Instead China is building 1 coal power plant per week and makes most things we use ( more every day but the media lies and says the economy is great). 17 million more people on food stamps, 8 million more on disability , 20 million more unemployed. millions of manufacturing jobs lost , 50% college grads can’t find jobs, other good jobs replaced with fast food jobs and part time jobs all this with 6 trillion $ in debt it added on us . after election Obama ‘s EPA plans to almost completely shut down coal,oil, natural gas etc. Don’t you democrats and other voters for Obama get it socialism never works
I couldn’t care less about national polls to be honest. Good to gauge movement but hardly indicative to the swing states.
Seriously, why do you keep bringing up Nate Silver?
The guy is a partisan hack and said Obama had an 80% chance of being re-elected. He makes PPP look good.
I still think all the pollsters have basically got together and done a big ole C YA, none of them want to be out on a limb.
Bottom line number in Gallup:
O still can’t crack 50%.
Its over. He certainly is not going to get 48% - he’ll get less as losing candidates usually do.
How much we’ll have to wait to find out tomorrow night.
Again, Williard Mitt Romney WILL be our President!
Excuse the points of discontinuity in the graph, but it is appropriate considering how these pollsters are thinking. I swear if you did a graph of their brainwaves it would be a four-cusped hypocycloid.
As Rush is saying the Dems are VERY over sampled. The polls really are Romney/Ryan 51 and Obama/Bite me 35%. Just vote.
I think this is great news. I assumed Obama would get his 47% that Romney talked about plus 1% for their efforts. This leaves the remaining 3% divided up as 2 for Romney and 1 for Obama for total of 51% to 49%. 2% is enough for electoral win.
From what I understand NEVER in Gallup’s history of polling has a candidate been ahead as late as October 25 and lost the election.
So essentially Mr Silver is predicting a Popular/Electoral Vote split. Interesting prediction.
It’s turnout folks! I hope all of us in swing states are making sure all of our like-minded family/friends and co-workers are getting to the polls!
Because smug numbers guys annoy me to no end. I have done modeling in the accounting world for 30 plus years and I have learned to be very humble about projections. Nate has no such humbleness and it grates at me.
In the past you could at least get a clue from the last poll of these companies if the Republican is winning.
O will NOT get 48% tomorrow night - losing candidates always perform worse relative to their final result.
Now its true PEW shows Obama at 50% but this is a poll that is heavily D+ oversampled - D+6 and an outlier and so it can be tossed out.
Ras and Gallup understate Romney’s winning margin - it probably be 53% 46% 1% which is about right where it should be.
I guess it's good they still have Romney up but I'm not buying that Obama got a 4-6 point bounce just because he put his arms around Chris Christie and pretended to care (for just a day) about a hurricane.
I figure the Democrat machine that can generate votes with walking around money, late poll shenanigans, multiple voters, and use of false media reports and exit polling are good for at least 1% point.
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