Free Republic

The International Monetary Fund is warning that the world is in for a rough ride, with more than a third of the global economy forecast to contract over this year and next amid a cost-of-living crisis fueled by inflation and exacerbated by factors such as Russia’s war in Ukraine. For most people, it will feel like a recession. “The worst is yet to come,” said the fund’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Speaking to a packed press conference Tuesday to launch the latest World Economic Outlook, he had a grim warning on global inflation, saying it is expected to peak at...

Suddenly, Sunday, a riveting report came over cable news. The U.S. embassy was urging all Americans to "leave Afghanistan as soon as possible." Message: Get out while you can. Adding urgency was news that three northern provincial capitals, including Kunduz, had fallen to the Taliban, making it five provincial capitals overrun since Friday. The huge investment in blood and treasure by the United States over two decades to remake Afghanistan appears about to be wiped out, whole and entire, and we appear about to sustain our worst diplomatic and political defeat since the fall of Saigon. Not once in this...

The correct answer in economics begins with "It depends ..." Do U.S. consumers pay tariffs on products imported into the United States? Free traders repeat that a tariff is a tax and that consumers always pay it. Your child or grandchild will fail his Economics 101 mid-term without an understanding of the elasticity of demand and the elasticity of supply. The demand curve for a particular product can be elastic or inelastic. That is, demand can be sensitive to price or insensitive to price. You have heard of the supply and demand curves. But those curves are different for different...

The headline in Salon blared, “Fourth of July's ugly truth exposed: The Declaration of Independence is sexist, racist, prejudiced,” leading Commentary editor Noah Rothman to tweet out, “So woke, you’re on George III’s side.”But it must be difficult for the left to figure out how to square Great Britain, be it post-American Revolution or post-Brexit, since when you look deeply, you realize the that Britons had to face some tough realities—navigating Brexit being the latest. There were twin circumstances driving the decision of a majority of Britons to leave the EU—circumstances that the United States is grappling with too: immigration,...

For more than a generation, James Carville's campaign maxim, "It's the economy, stupid," has been held up as an essential truth of American politics. There's no denying that a strong economy is an incumbent president's best friend. Seventy-three percent of voters currently rate the economy as a very important issue. As a result, if the economy remains strong for another 1 1/2 years, many analysts believe President Donald Trump will be favored to win reelection. On the other hand, if a recession hits next year, we will almost certainly have a new president in 2021. However, recent data about the...

We evaluated the amount of United States government aid (total and military) as well as trade policy with the top 50 countries on the Open Doors persecution of Christians list website (https://www.opendoorsusa.org/2018-world-watch-list-report/). The primary source noted of persecution in each country in the Open Doors list was: Islamic oppression (n=33), dictatorial paranoia (n=6), religious nationalism* (n=5), communist and post-communist oppression (n=4), or organized crime and corruption (n=2). We used the Office of the United States Trade Representative website (https://ustr.gov/) and the US Agency of International Development website (https://www.usaid.gov/) as the primary sources of information supplemented by Google searches. We collected:...

Is it possible that Donald Trump is winning on trade? Last week, Trump apparently delivered two underappreciated victories as a result of his threat of stiff tariffs and renegotiated trade deals. First, Seoul has agreed to reduce long-standing non-tariff trade barriers that have reduced American exports to Korea. Though the details are still sketchy, the Koreans have agreed to buy more Ford and General Motors Co. cars and trucks and other U.S.-made products. This can only be good news for American workers. The Koreans have also agreed to increase reimbursement rates to American drug and vaccine producers. Even The...

The basic issue is a simple one; for the U.S. NAFTA has a fatal flaw. Canada and Mexico are used by China and Asian nations as a way to work-around direct trade with the U.S. and use NAFTA as a backdoor into the U.S. market. It works out great for Canada and Mexico, but terrible for the U.S. We always knew there was a generally good trade strategy visible from POTUS Trump, but it needs to be said that NO-ONE realized just how well thought out it really is. Now I know what this guy does instead of sleeping… he...

Let's look at the political angst over trade deficits. A trade deficit is when people in one country buy more from another country than the other country's people buy from them. There cannot be a trade deficit in a true economic sense. Let's examine this. I buy more from my grocer than he buys from me. That means I have a trade deficit with my grocer. My grocer buys more from his wholesaler than his wholesaler buys from him. But there is really no trade imbalance, whether my grocer is down the street, in Canada or, God forbid, in China....

One of Donald Trump's talking points and biggest applause lines is how "they" -- Japan, China and Mexico -- are "beating us in trade" and are "taking our jobs." He proposes tariffs, for example, on Chinese goods in retaliation for that country's alleged "cheating." To someone who is out of work in an industry where foreign workers do what he or she once did, Trump-like protectionism sounds appealing. But Trump actually proposes punishing the American consumer. As economist Milton Friedman says, protectionism discriminates against low prices. It is certainly true that many countries prop up or subsidize companies or even...

Donald Trump has been savaged by economists and media aligned with establishment candidates for tough positions on trade—including a 45 percent tariff on imports to force China to the negotiating table. Actually, he's got it right. Establishment Democrats and Republicans embrace free trade because it puts free markets first with benefits any decently trained economist should extoll. Unfortunately, trade with China and many nations is hardly market-driven. It hurts U.S. growth and victimizes America's families. Obama's six-year expansion has averaged 2.2 percent annual economic growth and added 13.6 million jobs. Coming off a similar bout with double-digit unemployment, Reagan delivered...

I am about as huge a free trader as anyone you'll read or meet. Because it is in fact yet another less government issue. The less government gets in the way of peoples trading freely - the better it is for everyone. '"Trade Wars' actually aren't about trade — they are about government trade policy. "If peoples are trading freely, there isn't a 'War' there's commerce. The 'Wars' only happen when governments get involved, placing tariffs, regulations and subsidies in the way of the flow. "It becomes a regulatory arms race. A government imposes another subsidy or tax. So several...

Monday was a federal holiday. By that we mean government bureaucrats had the day off - the people who pay them did not. For people addled by Political Correctness (PC) - it was “Indigenous People Day.” For We the Sane - it was Columbus Day. Columbus is of course Christopher Columbus. The Italian man funded by Spaniards who in 1492 established the European New World connection that led to us today. (The Vikings got here first - but their imprints eventually withered away.) Columbus set off to find…a new route to the East Indies (the Old World’s name for much...

Both parties agree we can expand opportunity in our country by expanding American exports. In fact, the U.S. is negotiating a number of important trade agreements right now. And to make sure they’re successful, my colleagues and I have called for Congress to put in place trade promotion authority. TPA, as it’s called, is important for a number of reasons, but for starters it empowers Congress by giving it a real say in the negotiating process. Now, nothing prevents a president from negotiating a trade agreement. But an agreement can take effect only if Congress approves it. So the administration...

Mid-April seems like an odd confluence of events. Not only is Tax Day upon us, but it also marks the annual commemoration of the Battles of Lexington and Concord, known as Patriots’ Day. The stark contrast between the two is an annual reminder of the ongoing struggle between two opposing forces—one which seeks to relish, in an ever-increasing way, the dominion it has over how we live our lives, either by substituting its judgment for that of our own or by thinking it can spend our money better than we can. The other force, of course, is freedom. The freedom...

Ian Fletcher is an economics consultant in private practice in San Francisco.  He was previously head of government relations for the American Engineering Association.  Fletcher outlines an analysis of a Natural Strategic Tariff as a corollary to the Gomory-Baumol multiple equilibrium model of international trade. Yes.  Yes.  I know.  Econo-speak.  Gomory-Baumol probably have replaced, on the merits, Ricardo's more simplistic ideas about trade.  Of course, Ricardo is cited by the pseudo-academics that like to avoid thought.The Natural Strategic Tariff is a controversial idea that would certainly be shouted down with "protectionist" accusations.  But take a look and feel free to...

...The globalization paradigm has turned out to be very convenient for politicians. It allows them to blame foreigners for economic woes. It allows them to pretend that by rewriting trade deals, they can assuage economic anxiety... But there’s a problem with the way the globalization paradigm has evolved. It doesn’t really explain most of what is happening in the world. Globalization is real and important. It’s just not the central force driving economic change. Some Americans have seen their jobs shipped overseas, but global competition has accounted for a small share of job creation and destruction over the past few...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Thursday night's victories for Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama in the Iowa presidential caucuses will bring increased attention to the candidates' trade proposals as they head off to New Hampshire for round two of the primary season. The loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs in states with early primaries will probably influence voters and may have longer-term implications in the race. Anxiety about the state of the U.S. economy, including a weak housing market and slowing jobs growth -- especially following Friday's anemic employment data -- is likely to influence voters' view of the U.S....

Tuesday, December 26, 2006 Everybody knows that the loss of huge portions of their home U.S. market to imports has decimated U.S.-owned automakers Ford and GM (as well as Chrysler, which is no longer U.S.-owned, but shares many of Detroit’s biggest problems). What everybody doesn’t know is that literally dozens of U.S.-based manufacturing industries have suffered the same kinds of losses since the late 1990s. The clear bottom line, as revealed by the U.S. Business & Industry Council’s latest annual survey of domestic manufacturing’s competitiveness: The United States is a military superpower, but is steadily becoming an industrial also-ran. The...

China to cut tariff on cars, auto parts from July 1 Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-06-15 17:29 China will further cut import taxes on some cars and auto parts as of July 1, the Ministry of Finance announced Thursday. With the approval of the Chinese government, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, has decided to lower the tariffs on cars, SUVs (sports utility vehicles or cross-country vehicles),and mini-buses from 28 percent to 25 percent, said the ministry. Meanwhile, the import taxes on auto parts, such as auto bodies, under-pans, medium and low emission gasoline engines, will be reduced to 10...