Free Republic

House Republicans struggling to preserve their majority are facing a wave of Democratic money and enthusiasm in suburban districts across the country, as well-educated and moderate voters consider new checks on President Trump. An analysis of the types of districts in play shows that two-thirds of the Republican-held seats that a top election handicapper sees as vulnerable are in suburban areas. That has Republicans on defense in an area where Trump has bled support, even in the 2016 election he won. The Cook Political Report lists 64 Republican-held seats as either pure toss-ups, or leaning slightly toward Democrats or Republicans....

Republicans are performing critical triage to their midterm spending strategy as they seek to hold on to their House majority in a difficult midterm year. The House GOP’s campaign arm pulled the plug on its remaining ad buys last week for the Pittsburgh media market, where Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) is desperately fighting to hang on to his seat in a race against Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.). It’s grim news for Rothfus, who has largely been seen as a dead man walking since redistricting left him with a Democratic-leaning district and a difficult opponent in Lamb. For the GOP, it’s...

The majority of the 99 seats in the House of Representatives identified by the Cook Political Report as “competitive” in 2018 are in eight states: California, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Michigan. Of the 435 seats in the lower chamber of Congress, 336 are not competitive–180 held by Democrats, 156 held by Republicans, according to the Cook Political Report’s ratings. Only 15 of the 99 competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, while 84 are held by Republicans. The simple math–24 more non competitive seats are held by Democrats than are held by Republicans–and the Republicans...

The majority of white Americans and swing voters in 2018 swing districts say that change has made life “worse” in the U.S. In the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly 60 percent of white likely voters who see changes in their neighborhood from mass immigration said that immigration made their community “worse.” Only 15 percent of these voters said immigration has made American life “better.” These likely voters live in swing districts which could be swayed towards either the Republicans or Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections. Likewise, the majority of swing voters in swing districts say immigration has been a...

They were among the most powerful and, in many cases, most popular political figures in their states, proven Republican vote-getters who coalesced remarkably early around one of their own for the presidency: George W. Bush. And so, from Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania to John Engler in Michigan to his own brother Jeb, in Florida, Mr. Bush could count on the company of an important Republican governor when he campaigned in the biggest battleground states. These governors and others like Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin helped define Mr. Bush's very candidacy, vouching for his character, policies and record on the network talk...

President-elect Donald Trump will host a new round of rallies in the coming weeks to celebrate his 2016 election win, according to one of his top aides. George Gigicos, the head of the Trump advance team, spoke to reporters in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York City Thursday, where he said their team is working on "the victory tour now." He asked Trump's former campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, who was behind him, to ask when the tour would be happening. She came forward to reporters and said, "'Thank you tour.' It's not a 'victory tour,'" to which Gigicos...

In the last week since Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a stunning electoral blowout, there have been calls from many on the left to abolish America’s unique presidential election system.It still hasn’t been settled whether Trump or Clinton won the popular vote, but many Democrats are upset about the possibility that their candidate may have won more total votes, yet lost the election.Progressives are taking aim at the Electoral College and want to replace it with a national popular vote. This would both remove the indirect mediation of the electors’ votes, and more damagingly, eliminate the power of states...

The winner of the U.S. presidential election will be determined by about 17 swing counties, with a total of about 500,000 swing voters between them. The American public has heard that 12 swing states will determine who will be the next president. But a book, Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, by Hamline University Professor David Schultz, who also edits the Journal of Public Affairs Education, predicts a very small number of America’s 3,142 counties and county equivalents will tip the balance. In Ohio, it’s Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati; In Pennsylvania, the key counties are Bucks and Chester...

Would have gone but just learned about it People lining up at six in the morning

The winner of the U.S. presidential election will be determined by about 17 swing counties, with a total of about 500,000 swing voters between them. The American public has heard that 12 swing states will determine who will be the next president. But a book, Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, by Hamline University Professor David Schultz, who also edits the Journal of Public Affairs Education, predicts a very small number of America’s 3,142 counties and county equivalents will tip the balance. In Ohio, it’s Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati; In Pennsylvania, the key counties are Bucks and Chester...

Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her campaign on Friday, working to ensure a victory that is decisive enough to earn a mandate for her presidency and a surge of voters to help Democrats win congressional races. Emerging from a nine-day absence from the trail, Mrs. Clinton seized on the momentum of her performance in the final presidential debate, choosing Ohio — a battleground state where she has struggled the most against Donald J. Trump — as her first stop on a four-day swing. With new polls showing Mrs. Clinton closing in on Mr. Trump in the state, her...

Hillary Clinton and her entire team is in a pure panic about what is happening in Ohio, which everyone knows is a significant swing state. Trump is up 5 points in the latest poll, which prompted Hillary’s campaign to send out an email literally begging for money. You can see a copy of the email below. They are clearly growing more and more desperate by the day as Trump continues to pick up steam. Here is what the email said… Friend — According to a Bloomberg News poll just released, if this election were held today, we’d lose Ohio to...

Washington (CNN)With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states. Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.

The winner of the U.S. presidential election will be determined by about 17 swing counties, with a total of about 500,000 swing voters between them. The American public has heard that 12 swing states will determine who will be the next president. But a book, Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, by Hamline University Professor David Schultz, who also edits the Journal of Public Affairs Education, predicts a very small number of America’s 3,142 counties and county equivalents will tip the balance. * In Ohio, it’s Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati; * In Pennsylvania, the key counties are Bucks...

Hillary Clinton’s prospects for a landslide victory have slid. Democrats’ attempts to take back the House remain a steeply uphill battle. And Americans are still worried about the threat of terrorism.This is HuffPollster for Friday, September 9, 2016. FLORIDA, OHIO, NORTH CAROLINA REMAIN CLOSE CONTESTS - National polls have shown Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump eroding slightly in the first week of September, and now it looks like a trio of crucial swing states might be following suit. Florida - A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found Clinton and Trump tied at 47-47 in a two-way race, and 43-43 in...

You've probably seen the above map already, or ones very much like it, showing Hillary Clinton's prohibitive lead in the Electoral College. In my previous Wargaming column from four weeks ago, Clinton's worst-case scenario gave her a squeaker 273-265. And that, I must reiterate, was her worst-case outcome as of just four weeks ago.But then Donald Trump went to Mexico in what might prove to have been a game-changer. It is already at the very least a direction-changer -- if the massive new WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is to be believed.Let's look at the maps based on that poll of nearly 75,000...

Donald Trump cannot win this election unless he wins a state that Mitt Romney lost in 2012. If you haven't heard me say this before: Welcome! Thanks for reading. I keep coming back to that point because it is the simplest way of thinking about this election. For all of the polling that's sprinkled down over the past year-and-a-half, for all of the demographic breakdowns and discussions of who and what is doing well where and why, that's the only thing that really needs to be tracked. Is Trump winning a state Romney lost? And if the answer is no,...

Statistics site 538 adjusted its swing state forecast for Ohio Monday, and the results are looking better for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Trump overcame a 5 point deficit mid-August to lead Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by three points in the state, according to the latest Ipsos poll published in September. Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/05/nate-silver-trump-improving-in-ohio-hillary-slipping/#ixzz4JQZrW0e1

While Clinton continues to have a structural advantage in the electoral map, there is no doubt Donald Trump is surging and his positive momentum is beginning to have an effect in several state primaries. Keep in mind, this map is also created based on polling averages which likely are using an outdated turnout model and are assuming democratic voters will turn out as strongly for Hillary as they did for Obama. There are many signs this will not be the case. Given this inherent bias, Clinton leaning states currently amount to 229 electoral votes, whereas Trump leaning states amount to...

Donald Trump now needs a swing of only 3 to 4 percentage points in key battleground states to win this election. The rule is simple: Throw lots of mud and see what sticks. It works. For instance, Trump just called for a “special prosecutor” to investigate the Clinton Foundation: It made for a good headline . The key issue here is how Trump is polling in context. He has just gone through almost a month of terrible campaign news. Yet he remains within a 4-point swing of winning in battleground states. That should be terrifying for Team Clinton. No wonder...