Free Republic

Will the U.S. economy be able to beat inflation without going into a recession? That may be the question investors are asking themselves as more economic data is pointing to a softening economy. Recession fears started to percolate in early August, when July jobs data showed the unemployment rate growing to 4.3%. The increase in unemployment triggered the recession-indicating Sahm rule and a deep stock-market selloff over the next two trading days. “The unemployment rate is increasingly more of a watch point for investors,” Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told MarketWatch. Although the...

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban warned Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that Vice President Kamala Harris’ capital gains tax plan would “kill the stock market.” Cuban said, “What I told them is if you tax unrealized gains, you’re going to kill the stock market, and it’s going to be the ultimate employment plan for private equity because companies are not going to go public because you can get whipsawed.” He added, “Based off the unrealized gains, I would have had to borrow money and I effectively would have been in hawk just to pay my tax bill instead of trying to...

U.S. stocks tumbled to their worst day since an early August sell-off after another report raised worries about the economy's health.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris visited Pittsburgh for the Labor Day holiday with President Biden. There, she declared that United States Steel should remain domestically owned and operated, yet another high-profile critic of US Steel’s proposed sale to Japan’s Nippon Steel. “US Steel is a historic American company, and it is vital for our nation to maintain strong American steel companies,” Harris told the audience at Union Hall in Pittsburgh, where US Steel is headquartered. She said, “I couldn’t agree more with President Biden — US Steel should remain American-owned, and American-operated. And I will always...

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett advises buying gold amid record-high prices. Hartnett said potential Fed rate cuts could stoke fresh inflation, which would be bullish for gold. Gold's year-to-date rally of about 20% is outperforming US tech stocks. Investors should buy gold even as the metal hovers around record-high prices, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. In a note on Thursday, Hartnett said investors should "do what central banks are doing… buy gold." That's because interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months pose a risk to stoking a rebound in inflation next...

during the Bush administration, Democrats accused the BLS of cooking the books to make Bush look good. Then under Obama, the accusation switched. It switched back again under Trump. Today, the estimate of new jobs created dropped by 818k. Biden and Harris cooked the books. This isn’t any different than Enron. They cooked the books during an election year to make themselves look good. The BLS went along with it. Shame on them. I was listening to the Joe Rogan/Peter Thiel podcast driving from Grand Marais to Duluth. I have to hop on a plane to Detroit. My mom is...

We’ve got about 75 more days left until the election, and who knows what the hell will happen that will change everything? If the last 25 years have been any indication, something will happen, and it’s going to be weird. We only have black swans anymore. We need to be looking for the white swan among the black flock. What can happen? Well, there’s the Democratic National Convention. It’s going on as I write this and we might see total chaos. The Democrats, on the streets, inside the arena, and aboard the abortion/castration RV, could show America their true colors...

US stocks closed at session highs on Monday after posting their best week in a year as the markets continued to rally in a sharp turnaround from their early August sell-off. The S&P 500 rose nearly 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite increased roughly more than 1.4%. Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks led the gains, as the S&P 500 stretched its daily wins to eight, its longest streak since November of last year, according to Bespoke Investment data. The Nasdaq also logged its an eighth consecutive session win as shares of chip...

After experiencing its worst crash yesterday since Black Monday in 1987, Japan’s stock market has all but recovered, rising by more than 10 percent today — its biggest single-day gains in history. Nearly all markets in Asia are on the up. But while the FTSE 100 looked set for a rebound, stocks continue to slump today as worries about the US economy intensify. We’re still in the thick of the turbulence. The dust hasn’t settledOverall it’s been a miserable couple of days for investors. All eyes were on Wall Street’s opening this morning, with particular attention…After experiencing its worst crash...

Japan down 12.4%. No Japan trades for the last 10 minutes. South Korea halted trading. Now trading resumed, at down 9.6%.

Two new surveys say most Americans think the recession has already begun. This must come as a shock to our mendacious media sacrificing fresh mountains of newsprint to gaslight Kackles over the 50-yard line come November. Meanwhile, nearly 70% of Americans report that inflation—which that same media told us was long gone —continues making life a struggle, with little prospect of saving for the future or getting out of debt. The numbers come from two surveys by left-wing Guardian-Harris polling, and another from payment network Affirm, who sampled 2,000 Americans. Nearly 60% say we’re already in recession, and on average,...

Since the end of 2023 Berkshire has sold 505 million Apple shares — 115 million in the first quarter and another 390 million in the second quarter. As of June 30, that represents a 55.8% reduction in Berkshire’s Apple holdings since the beginning of the year, Reuters noted.

It's the economy, stupid, and former President Donald Trump leads Democrat candidate, Vice-President Kamala Harris, when it comes to economic confidence by leaps and bounds. According to polling by the Wall Street Journal that was taken July 23-25, Trump lead Harris on confidence regarding the handling of the economy by 12 points, with Trump at 52 percent to Harris's 40 percent. As Charlie Kirk points out in his tweet, combine that with the fact that a New York Times/Siena College Poll taken July 22-24 found that a whopping 50 percent of Americans think economic conditions are "poor." Since these were...

The first Monday in August has arrived with panic sweeping through the finance sector, as nearly $2 trillion was wiped out of the S&P 500 at market open. Investor anxiety over a looming global recession triggered a selloff that sent U.S. stock futures plummeting and raised urgent questions about the Biden’s administration’s economic policies. As trading began on August 5th, a staggering $1.93 trillion was wiped out from the S&P 500, with stock index futures taking a massive hit. S&P 500 futures fell more than 4.4%, while Dow futures were down 3%, translating to a loss of 1,212 points. The...

We have to hope that the Federal Reserve realizes that today’s stock market weakness is unlikely to be a passing fad given the poor underlying world economic and political fundamentals. Maybe then the Fed will do the right thing and start cutting interest rates aggressively to provide long-overdue support to a weakening U.S. economy.

“The global economy is becoming unburdened by what has been.” — Jordan Schachtel on “X”. That two-by-four upside our country’s head you’ve been waiting to get whomped with? Looks like it’s landing now. We got a banger in 2008, but it didn’t make a much of an impression. Maybe you don’t even remember these people, but then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke came in like a code blue squad and hooked up the banks to an IV-drip speedball of cocaine and heroin, i.e., “money” that didn’t actually exist (a.k.a. “liquidity,” hallucinated capital), and that crew kept...

U.S. stock-market futures fell late Sunday, after a volatile week on Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq fall into correction territory. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid more than 250 points, or 0.7%, as of 11 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, as S&P 500 futures fell 1.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 2.4%. Each had improved slightly late Sunday from their session lows. Crude oil futures were up slightly amid heightened concerns over escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Cryptocurrencies fell, led by bitcoin, which retreated 8% and slipped below the $55,000 level after topping $65,000 on Friday, while ether ETHUSD sank...

US stocks tumbled across the board on Friday after the July jobs report showed more cooling in the labor market, fueling concerns the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest-rate stance might end in recession. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 2.9% after the jobs report's release. That plunged the tech-heavy index into correction territory, more than 10% below its recent high in early July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slumped nearly 2.4%, or close to 1000 points, as a flight from stocks accelerated. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank 2.5%. Stocks kicked off August with a sell-off after a clutch of...

ISM Manufacturing PMI retreated to 46.8 in July, the 48.8 consensus, from 48.5 in June. That marks the 20th time in the last 21 months in which economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted (Note a reading below 50 signals economic contraction). The index now has been in contraction terrain for four straight months.With new orders falling further into contraction, "demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed generally accommodative," said Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Employment: 43.4 vs. 49.3 prior. Prices: 52.9 vs. 52.1. New orders: 47.4 vs. 49.3. Production: 45.9 vs....

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased to an 11-month high last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market, though claims tend to be volatile around this time of the year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 for the week ended July 27, the highest level since August last year, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 236,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have been on an upward trend since June, with part of the rise blamed on volatility related to temporary...