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Just a few weeks ago, Ohio was a state that was considered almost every media outlet to be a solid lock for Obama. ThereÂ’s no need to rehash the actual headlines, but some even suggested Romney give up on Ohio and look elsewhere for a path to victory. Before the first debate, Romney was down 5.6 in RCPÂ’s Buckeye State average. Today he is down 2.5, cutting his deficit by more than half, presumably in large part due to his strong first-debate performance. Here are a few reasons why itÂ’s even closer than that: Democratic turnout advantage from 2008 probably...

~ intro paragraph snipped ~ Mitt Romney is now leading President Obama nationally in the RealClearPolitics average. He is over 50 percent in Gallup. No candidate over 50 percent in Gallup this late in the race has lost. His favorability rating (favorable to unfavorable) is higher than Obama’s. In electoral votes, when you average recent polling, he leads 206 to 201. Romney’s team is “done” ( i.e. feels it has comfortably) with North Carolina. Although polling is still mixed, the Romney team believes it is ahead in Colorado, Virginia and Florida. If you are counting electoral votes that puts Romney’s...

Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee in 24 years, when George H.W. Bush carried the state narrowly in 1988. In subsequent cycles, the Keystone State frequently felt like 'the one that got away' for Republicans; polling would look close and tightening in October, only to go blue in November, thanks to Democrats' formidable firewall in Greater Philadelphia. This year, it appeared that Pennsylvania wouldn't even be in the conversation for the GOP ticket. Barack Obama won the state by double-digits in 2008, and numerous public opinion polls showed the president maintaining -- or even expanding -- his...

SIDNEY, Ohio -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney received a warm reception on a cold evening at the Shelby County Fairgrounds Wednesday as he addressed a crowd estimated at more than 8,500 people, more than eight times the number expected to turn out. ~ snip ~ Chris Gibbs, chairman of the Shelby County Republican Party, said the event was a "huge undertaking" but was an undeniable success. "The Romney team was meticulous in organizing, and the ability to put on a production like this in such a short amount of time is fantastic," Gibbs said. Attendance far surpassed the initial...

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