Keyword: prognostication
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A powerful winter storm system is set to impact much of the country, bringing multiple hazards including heavy snow, dangerous ice, and severe thunderstorms. This system will be accompanied by an intense cold blast that could send wind chills plummeting below -20°F in some areas. What makes this storm different: Multiple precipitation types creating hazardous conditions Significant temperature drops of 10-20 degrees below normal Potential for heavy snow accumulation Dangerous wind chills Risk of severe thunderstorms in warmer sectors Stay tuned for updates as this system develops. While timing and exact impacts may change, this storm system has the potential...
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Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before the polls close across the U.S. And he says it's 'literally closer than a coin flip,' as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to a close Tuesday. After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the majority of match ups. The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris's 50.015 percent,' Silver said on Tuesday morning. According to his model, Harris won the Electoral...
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A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll. With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit. But the transformation in the presidential contest goes well...
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The first Emerson College Polling national survey following President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 50% to 46%. Five percent of likely voters are undecided. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Harris continues to lead by four, 52% to 48%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris and Trump’s support evenly decreases by two points, Harris to 48% and Trump to 44%. Four percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This month’s national poll included only those who indicate they are very likely to vote, previous polls included all registered voters. Registered voters were...
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Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) reportedly remains interested in launching a 2024 presidential bid on a “No Labels” ticket if President Joe Biden, 81, has a “health scare.” If he enters the race, Manchin would siphon votes from Biden, potentially dooming the president’s reelection campaign. Democrats have raised concerns for months about Biden’s 2024 chances due to poor polling about his age and physical stamina: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: A majority of Democrats are “concerned” about Biden’s ability. YouGov: Fifty-five percent say Biden’s health and age “severely” limit his ability to do the job. NBC News: Most registered voters have “major”...
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As the guy who predicted here that Newt would pull out a narrow win in Florida, I have to admit I was wrong. Dead wrong.This doesn't change the fact that I was dead right about Newt's upset win in South Carolina. All the pundits were predicting a close election or a narrow win for Newt. I was alone in predicting a blow-out. The only thing I was wrong about is UNDER estimating his margin of victory. Not to make excuses, but I had sources on the ground in South Carolina. In Florida, I was limited to looking at news, polls...
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This is just, of course, a prediction on my part but here's why: 1. As a former governor, he has executive experience and, from what I understand, he was a pretty good governor. After 4 years of Obozo's incompetence, the American people are longing for a competent administrator. 2. Unlike Romney, who still refuses to disavow Romneycare, Pawlenty came out of the gate admitting he was wrong on Cap and Trade. That was a smart move, and it takes takes that monkey off his back. And two other competing governors, Daniels and Huck, are out of the race. 3. Unlike...
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2004-2009 Pompous Prognosticators Revisited The experts go into denial as the credit crisis unfolds By Nick Barisheff In 2001, Colin Seymour published an article entitled 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators. In it, he documented the many Depression-era assurances given by politicians, economists, financial experts and the media to the public, protesting that everything was fine and there was nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, the stock market would decline by 92%, the US dollar would be devalued by 40%, real estate would drop 30% and unemployment would soar to 25%. Today, we have a similar situation. Politicians, economists and the media...
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= events = earnings Feb 27 8:30a GDP-Prel. 8:30a Chain Deflator-Prel. 9:45a Mich Sentiment-Rev. 10:00a Chicago PMI Mar 1 8:30a Personal Income 8:30a Personal Spending 10:00a Construction Spending 10:00a ISM Index Mar 2 Auto Sales Truck Sales Mar 3 10:00a ISM Services 2:00p Fed's Beige Book Mar 4 8:30a Initial Claims 8:30a Productivity-Rev. 10:00a Factory Orders Mar 5 8:30a Nonfarm Payrolls 8:30a Unemployment Rate 8:30a Hourly Earnings 8:30a Average Workweek 3:00p Consumer Credit Mar...
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Predicting the future can be tricky. That is because many of us have a hard enough time understanding the present. One hundred years ago this week, the New York Times wrote an end-of-the-year editorial summing up the most important events of 1903. It was a long, rambling essay that took up most of a page and attempted to cover every aspect of life from foreign affairs to industry and the labor movement. One section was titled, "Invention and Discovery." The author meandered for awhile about the discovery that year of radium and its possible benefits to mankind. Then, near the...
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12 Realistic, Pessimistic Predictions for the first two years of the Bush AdministrationFirst posted on December 13, 2000. PRE-ELECTION UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 25, 2002 Yesterday's (9/24) posting about a documentary of what happened in the Florida Presidential election, Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election, prompted me to examine and update my "realistic, pessimistic predictions". Though the huge impact of the September 11 attacks and subsequent related events couldn't be predicted in December 2000, I think I did reasonably well with these. (And some of them were admittedly minimal-brainers.) So, herewith for perusal and comment, a complete update. (This has been my profile...
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Dales' Baseball Predictions American League East 1) New York Yankees (Last year: 95-65) Although I am penning the Yankees in as the division champions, I look at them going into this year as having a high probability of having a season much like the Braves did last year- underwhelming and vulnerable, even if they manage to hang on. Where many see one of the league's best rotations, I see an again corps with real questions at the fourth and fifth starter positions. Clemens wasn't as good as most thought last year, which is offset by the fact that Mussina was...
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