Update to the "12 Realistic, Pessimistic Predictions"

12 Realistic, Pessimistic Predictions for the first two years of the Bush Administration

Yesterday's (9/24) posting about a documentary of what happened in the Florida Presidential election, Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election, prompted me to examine and update my "realistic, pessimistic predictions". Though the huge impact of the September 11 attacks and subsequent related events couldn't be predicted in December 2000, I think I did reasonably well with these. (And some of them were admittedly minimal-brainers.) So, herewith for perusal and comment, a complete update.

(This has been my profile for two years. In December 2002, I'll remove them and try to come up with 12 realistic, but not necessarily pessimistic, predictions for the next two years.)

1. The Cabinet appointees for the Department of the Interior and the head of the Environmental Protection Agency will immediately be characterized in the liberal media as "anti-environment". Comparisons to James Watt will be made frequently. STATUS: VALIDATED.
(09/25/2002): This is still a sticky point for the Administration, but that's not unexpected. Norton has done a pretty good job of avoiding the slings and arrows; Whitman has made some missteps.

2. Any appointees from minority groups for any positions (with the possible exception of General Colin Powell) will be characterized by the liberal media as "attempts to show inclusiveness" (especially if Bush appoints a black woman Democrat). Stories will focus on the makeup of the Cabinet, attempting to show that it is made up predominantly of white male conservatives, or "dominated" by them, and linking whoever possible to the previous Reagan-Bush administrations. STATUS: Partially validated, but the initial Cabinet had less "Reagan-Bush" era people than I expected and less has been made of Condoleeza Rice's race (though not her gender) than I expected. Still, the previous administration experience of Cheney, Chavez (now gone), Norton, Powell, and Rice has appeared in the media. Update: The Washington Post has claimed that second-tier positions are being staffed with mainline conservatives.
(09/25/2002): No real change here, but there was a recent article indicating that the science committees for HEW are being reorganized or eliminated to better reflect Administration philosophy. In some cases, the study committee chairman, rather than being given free rein to choose other members of the committe, are being given lists of people that they can choose from.

3. One of the first actions of Congress in 2001 will be to pass a law banning partial-birth abortion, which will be characterized by liberals and the liberal media as "vague". Planned Parenthood and other groups representing abortion providers will call the law an attack on all abortion procedures, including the use of RU-486. A few scattered abortion providers will quit, which will be widely publicized. Liberal politicians and the liberal media will accuse President Bush of being a "typical conservative... kowtowing to the Religious Right... not moderate." They will overlook the fact that numerous Democrats in the House and Senate voted for the law. STATUS: INVALIDATED. This was not an early action of Congress.
(09/25/2002): No change here. I think that the Jeffords flip had a big effect on this.

4. A foreign policy crisis (top potential areas being the Mideast, Taiwan/China, the Balkans, perhaps southern Africa due to AIDS) will cause the new Bush team to act carefully and deliberately. The liberal media will call Bush "ineffective", and will bring up the pre-election questions about his fitness to be President, particularly in areas of foreign policy. Some mention will be made about the difficulty of filling positions due to the post-election battle and delays. STATUS: INVALIDATED. The China spy plane crisis shows a Bush Administration foreign policy team that is effective and focused.
(09/25/2002): The spy plane crisis was certainly minor in light of 9/11. The Bush team was perhaps the best that could have possibly been assembled to deal with the attacks, the aftermath, and now the necessity of kicking Saddam Hussein out of power.

5. In late spring 2001, a study of disputed ballots in Florida will be released, purporting to show that Gore actually won in Florida by approximately 1000 votes. This study will overlook issues such as the non-count of military absentee ballots. Nonetheless, it will be heavily promoted in the media. STATUS: Many counts are in progress at this time.
(09/25/2002): Again, 9/11 eclipsed this in a major way. There were a number of counts, some indicating a Bush win, some a Gore win, but the most prominent count effort didn't evaluate a winner or loser. Perhaps the most telling report indicated that voter error led to far more disqualified votes by Democrats than Republicans. If that's the case, Democrats should attempt to do a better job of instructing their constituents on how to vote, not just how to get to the polls.

6. A tax-cut package of some kind will be passed. Liberal Democrats will talk about "squandering the surplus". Budget projections (from liberal sources) will indicate the return of budget deficits in the near-future. Bush's tax cut will be compared to the Reagan tax cut, and the dire consequences of that cut, such as cuts in public health agencies, will be promoted heavily. STATUS: VALIDATED. Both Houses of Congress have agreed on a $1.35 million tax cut package, and spending to increase at a rate of 4.9%. Liberal analysts see a return to potential deficit spending.
(09/25/2002): The slow recovery of the economy has current deficit projections high. Dems are blaming this on the tax cut. Of course, it's impossible to count revenue in the future until it happens. When the economy revs up again, the projected deficits will shrink rapidly and the media will profess surprise. So will the Dems.

7. The first Bush initiatives on educational policy will be immediately characterized as "ineffective and short-sighted" or "heavy-handed"(=testing and accountability) in the liberal media. Any proposed school voucher programs will be attacked as "unfair". STATUS: Update: School vouchers withdrawn, testing stays, haven't seen comment yet.
(09/25/2002): The education bill that finally passed has quite a bit of testing in it. Vouchers are still an issue, but not in the bill.

8. Conservative Republicans in Congress will draft legislation reminiscent of some features of the 1994-1996 "Republican Revolution" legislation vetoed or logjammed by Clinton. Due to the balance of the Congress (particularly the Senate), most of these will be passed as last-minute riders attached to budget bills. Bush will veto some, but not all, of this legislation. Conservative Republicans will call him a traitor to the Republican Party. Democrats will attack the legislation that he does sign as "radical". STATUS: Western Congress members have asked for a rollback of 11th-hour Clinton administration land actions (such as new national monument designations.)
(09/25/2002): INVALIDATED. I think that the pragmatism of Hastert and the non-leadership of Lott has limited any such initiatives.

9. Senator John McCain will continue to push campaign finance reform legislation. Congress will resist, but will eventually pass something. Bush will sign it with McCain prominent in attendance. The media will promote this is a victory over arch-conservatives. STATUS: March: Senate passes McCain-Feingold bill. On to the House. Bush indicates that he may sign it.
(09/25/2002): ALMOST RIGHT. Well, we all know what happened here. McCain/Feingold passed, though it's likely some provisions will be ruled unconstitutional; Bush signed it quick and silently, denying McCain any time in the media spotlight to gloat.

10. Senator Strom Thurmond dies, and the Democratic governor of South Carolina appoints a Democrat in his place. Senate Democrats, armed with a one-vote majority, rescind all of the power-sharing arrangements (including equal funding for committee members) agreed to at the beginning of the 2001 Congress. STATUS: Strom's heart is still beating.
(09/25/2002): The Jeffords flip made this prediction irrelevant but correct: the Senate Democrats did rescind the power-sharing arrangements and have blocked much of the Bush agenda. Time will tell of these tactics will benefit the Republicans or Democrats in November.

11. Hollywood and media liberals will create an anti-Bush media campaign, starting late in 2001, publicizing the uncertainties of the election. There will be a made-for-TV movie about the election in Palm Beach. Early in 2002, PBS will air a multi-part documentary entitled "The 2000 Election" (or similar), discussing biased facets of the election: voting irregularities, the death and subsequent election of Mel Carnahan, the close race between Cantwell and Gorton in Washington. (Multiple voting in Wisconsin will be mentioned for one minute.) This media campaign will be part of the preparation for the 2002 elections to attempt to regain Democratic control of the House and Senate. Any incidents of supposed censorship or muzzling of entertainment will be highlighted. STATUS: Oliver Stone is planning "Am-Bushed", a film about election irregularities in Florida (02/28/2001 update).
(09/25/2002): Never heard anything else about Stone's project, and 9/11 probably dampened enthusiasm for anything major. The documentary described at the outset of this posting is as close to correct for this prediction as I'm going to get.

12. New liberal talk radio shows will appear that will attempt to emulate the Limbaugh formula in reverse mode. These shows will meet with minimal success because liberals don't call in to radio talk shows. STATUS: Haven't found any yet.
(09/25/2002): Still haven't.

12. New liberal talk radio shows will appear that will attempt to emulate the Limbaugh formula in reverse mode. These shows will meet with minimal success because liberals don't call in to radio talk shows. STATUS: Haven't found any yet. (09/25/2002): Still haven't.

Try NPR...

I would say that this was VALIDATED when Bush took so much heat about non-engagement in the Israel/Palestinian problem.

I thought it was cool the way Bush hesitated and drew fire away from Sharon while the IDF was cleaning house on the terrorists

You were closer on 10 than you think. I don't know if you remember the reports of capitol hill gossip at the time, but a huge part of the reason Jeffords defected is he thought Strom wouldn't make it, and wanted to cut the best deal for himself he could. If Strom died Jeffords had no leverage to cut a deal. (The other reason he defected is Vermont has gone left. Jeffords defection was a very shrewd, very calculated political decision in his own self interest, and anybody who thinks anything else is an idiot.)

You did pretty well. My non-existent hat is off to you. Plese let me know when you post your new ones.

Ditto for me. As for liberal talk radio, it's called NPR. Just as an example, I heard a guest the other day who had served on the Inspection teams that verified Soviet compliance with certain arms treaties and verified the removal of nukes from the soil of the European satellites. The host and the other two guests fawned over him until he ventured that as an experienced inspector he could not imagine any way in which we could conduct meaningful inspections with Saddam in charge and he would have to go. Then they immediately went into "Inspections, Not War" mode and bashed him for the rest of the show. And trust me, liberals will call a talk radio show, as long as it's on NPR and they can claim to be a proud American while telling lies about the USA devouring the Third World.

NPR's also the only place where I could hear somebody promo an upcoming interview with a movie director, focusing on how he financed his latest film by starring in gay porno films. SHUDDER!!! The promo (and the show) were both aired in the 10-11am hour in the summer, so I could imagine NPR-listening soccer mom's driving their SUVs off the road in an effort to change the station.

12. New liberal talk radio shows will appear that will attempt to emulate the Limbaugh formula in reverse mode. These shows will meet with minimal success because liberals don't call in to radio talk shows. STATUS: Haven't found any yet. (09/25/2002): Still haven't.

Status: Partially VALIDATED. Of course, many people on FR and in the world haven't noticed Phil Donahue, due to his conspicuous lack of success. Even though he isn't in the talk radio format, none the less, he counts as a liberal show that has failed. I think Point Counter Point is also in this category.

Congratulations on reviewing your predictions, which not many would have had the courage to do.

I also agree that the Jeffords switch was due to Strom's perceived frailty, and so I am willing to give you that one.

Some of your predictions would have held if 9/11 hadn't happened...the harping on the Florida recount, for example. There are smatterings of that strategy left in the rantings of Gore and McAuliffe.

On the other hand, I think you did underestimate what a shrewd poitician President Bush actually is.

Congratulations on reviewing your predictions, which not many would have had the courage to do.

I was prompted by the "nearness" of my documentary prediction when I found out about the documentary that was just made. I'll make a small prediction that somehow this is going to be on TV (or at least a part of it) before the November elections.

On the other hand, I think you did underestimate what a shrewd poitician President Bush actually is.

It wouldn't pay to do that. Which prediction specifically underestimated his shrewdness (the campaign finance reform prediction, perhaps?)

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