Free Republic

Americans have reached consensus on the need to act in response to climate change with one conspicuous exception: Republicans. A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll identifies that sharp break in the evolving pattern of public opinion as scientists have amplified their warnings of rising global temperatures and linked them to a range of natural disasters. Overall, 66 percent of Americans now say they've seen enough evidence to justify action, up from 51 percent two decades ago. That figure incorporates 85 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of independents, 71 percent of women, 61 percent of men and strong majorities...

As in 2016, the divergence between Rasmussen and all the other polling outfits is striking: Rasmussen's last pre-election poll published Monday has an astonishing +1 advantage for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot (46-45). If Rasmussen's results are a remotely accurate prediction of today's outcome, it would be time to hide the razor blades and other sharp instruments in liberal households, because the disproportionate concentration of Democratic voters in urban centers means that normally Democrats must be up around +7 on the generic congressional ballot to win the House even narrowly.

You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points. But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys. Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come...

With just two days to go until the polls closed on the midterm elections, Republicans were working hard to get out their base and liberal media were working hard to get out the Democratic Party’s base. During the Sunday edition of ABC’s Good Morning America, they touted President Trump’s job approval rating slipping to 40 percent. Despite that good news to them, co-anchor Dan Harris was seemingly dismayed as he turned to Clinton lackey George Stephanopoulos, asking: “why is this not a blowout?” Stephanopoulos gave Harris a couple of reasons for why Republicans were still in the game this close...

Three days before the election in 2016 every major pollster in the nation predicted Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. Three days before the election in 2016 President Trump was at that time as risky a bet for conservatives & Republicans as he was for working class Democrats. They had all been let down by an establishment system that claimed to put them first but had seldom delivered in the previous number of years. Three days before the election in 2016 nearly every major media pundit believed the never-Trump split in the Republican Party would...

The exclusive ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights poll shows McSally with a seven-point lead with 52% of the vote compared to Sinema's 45%. On the flip-side, a CNN poll also released Wednesday had Sinema with 51% of the vote compared to McSally's 47%.

Portland Press Herald October 25, 2018 Data company predicts Brakey will win U.S. Senate seat – but makes a King-sized mistake The firm projects winners based on Google searches for candidates. A global data company is trying to make a splash with a study that predicts the outcome of next month’s U.S. Senate elections based on Google searches for each candidate’s name. When it comes to Maine’s Senate race, the marketing data firm, SEMrush, makes a bold prediction: that Republican Eric Brakey will win, with 54 percent of the vote. But SEMrush forgot something important: the incumbent, Sen. Angus King....

New WSJ/NBC News poll finds President Trump’s job-approval rating at 47%, the highest mark of his time in office.

PHOENIX - A new poll of Arizona's contested Senate race shows frontrunner Republican Martha McSally increasing her lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. In the latest ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll, McSally has a six-point edge on Sinema, 47 percent to 41 percent. Eight percent said they had yet to decide on a candidate.

Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) holds a slim but statistically insignificant lead over Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in the Nevada Senate race with a month left until Election Day, a poll released Tuesday found. An NBC News/Marist poll shows Heller leading 46-44 percent among likely voters. The difference falls within the poll's margin of error of 5.5 points. Heller is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection next month. The poll found that independents favor Heller, 42-39 percent. The incumbent is also the preferred candidate among likely male voters by a 16-point margin. Rosen holds an 11-point...

Polls this year show that Democratic voters have become "energized" enough to swing control of at least one branch of Congress in the coming midterm election. But data from past midterm "waves" suggest that Democrats could be headed for a disappointing November.

A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment. Arizona Kyrsten Sinema: 47% Martha McSally: 45% Indiana Joe Donnelly: 43% Mike Braun: 41% Missouri Claire McCaskill: 43% Josh Hawley: 43% North Dakota Kevin Cramer: 53% Heidi Heitkamp: 41% Tennessee Marsha Blackburn: 48% Phil Bredesen: 43%

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- During a week in which Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh defended himself before the Senate against sexual assault allegations, a growing percentage of Americans now have an opinion about whether he should be confirmed. Currently, 46% of Americans are in favor of the Senate confirming Kavanaugh and 45% are opposed, with 9% having no opinion. Three prior polls conducted between July and mid-September showed close divisions of opinion, but with more than twice as many as now having no opinion.

If the FBI finds no corroboration of the charges, 60 percent believe that Kavanaugh should then be confirmed, according to a weekend Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of 1,330 registered voters. In terms of the overall needle, after the testimony was heard, 37 percent say confirm the nomination, 44 percent say reject it, and 18 percent remain undecided, with Democrats going one way and Republicans the other. But once the voters are told that the named witnesses deny any knowledge of the allegation, this shifts to 57 percent who favor confirmation — and that goes up to 60 percent, if the FBI...

The NY Times and Siena College are polling the "tossup" Midterm districts. Of the polling done in September so far, 7 REPs are leading, 3 DEMs are leading and 1 tied race out of 11 districts polled (DECENT RESULTS FOR REPUBLICANS!) 5 more districts are being polled right now. Results can be viewed in Real Time. Republicans are leading in 3 of the 5. What is shocking to me is the very low response rate. For example, in Colorado 6, there have been 489 responses out of 26,456 phone calls. That is less than 2% taking the poll. How can...

Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday. It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections. The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year. Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar...

Arizona's Senate race is in a dead heat, with Rep. Martha McSally (R) narrowly leading Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) by 1 point, according to a new poll. A Gravis Marketing poll found McSally ahead of Sinema 49 to 48 percent, a lead within the survey's 3.3-point margin of error. Three percent of voters are still undecided. Monday's survey is the first one this year where McSally, who recently won a competitive three-way primary, is polling slightly ahead of Sinema, who didn't face a fierce primary fight.

Exit poll projects center-left party will win Swedish election, far-right party with white supremacist roots coming in second. STOCKHOLM (AP) — An exit poll indicated that Sweden's first general election since the Scandinavian country accepted a significant number of asylum-seekers was likely to have the center-left party governing now as its winner, but an anti-immigrant party with white supremacist roots placing second in balloting Sunday. Public broadcaster SVT said immediately after polls closed that its exit poll indicated the ruling Social Democrats would remain Sweden's largest party, but making its worst-ever showing with 26.2 percent of the vote. The exit...

According to a new poll, California's two biggest statewide races in 2018 are tightening, as the leads for front-runners Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein have been cut to single digits. The poll, conducted by Probolsky Research between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2, found that Lt. Gov. Newsom leads Republican businessman John Cox 44 percent to 39, with 17 percent of the poll's participants saying that they are undecided. Additionally, the poll found that Sen. Feinstein leads progressive challenger Kevin de León 37 percent to 29, with a whopping 34 percent of participants undecided.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The rallying cry from some liberals to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement isn’t a likely winner this election year, as a new poll finds only a quarter of Democrats support eliminating the agency that carried out the Trump administration’s policy of separating immigrant children from their parents. Some potential Democratic presidential contenders, such as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, backed getting rid of ICE in response to the separations. Others, including Sen. Kamala Harris of California, urged a rethinking of the agency, but stopped short of calling for its abolition. President Donald Trump has seized on...