Free Republic

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class. However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised. Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.” Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting. The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction. The question becomes, why the disconnect? There are two surveys that...

The economy gained 244,000 net jobs in April - the third straight month of solid gains. Yet the unemployment rate rose from 8.8 percent to 9 percent. How did that happen? It's because the government relies on two surveys for those figures, and they can diverge sharply from time to time. One is called the payroll survey. It asks companies and government agencies how many people they employ... The other is called the household survey. Government workers ask households about the employment status of adults living there. Those without jobs are asked whether they're looking for one. If they're not,...

Go Figure By ROBERT BARRO The meager expansion of payroll employment by 21,000 in February highlights the continuing sluggishness of the labor market. This slow employment growth is surprising given the many signs of expansion, including strength in gross domestic product and investment, and the moderate unemployment rate. A full explanation for the small jobs rise is unavailable, but there are some hints. One point, based on the discrepancy between the payroll and household surveys, is that the payroll numbers may be underestimating the growth of employment. Since mid-2001, the household numbers have been far stronger. A recent report (March...