Kazimierz Woycicki, a specialist on Eastern Europe at the University of Warsaw, says that there are six possible scenarios for Russia’s future. From Moscow’s perspective, four are disastrous; and two are more hopeful although apparently in the Polish scholar’s view less likely. The four negative scenarios, he suggests, include “the territorial disintegration of the Russian Federation,” “the gradual but peaceful falling apart of Russia,” “the Balkanization of Russia,” and “the fall of Russia under the influence of China” (k-politika.ru/mrachnye-prognozy-v-polshe-raspisali-shest-scenariev-budushhego-rossii). The two more positive ones at least from the perspective of the Russian leadership at the present time, Woycicki argues, are...