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Kremlin Risks Having Russians View Conflict in Ukraine Not as Russia’s War but as Putin’s
Window on Eurasia ^ | Mar 5 2022 | P. Goble

Posted on 03/05/2022 4:50:07 PM PST by CondoleezzaProtege

Vladimir Putin clearly hoped that his invasion of Ukraine would solidify the sense of “’us versus them’ between Russia and the West that he has used to “perpetuate the legitimacy” of his regime by producing “a spirit of patriotism and unity in the face of foreign threats,” Gulnaz Sharafutdinova says.

But the opposition to the war among Russians is now sufficiently widespread and strong that there is a very real risk that they will no longer accept the conflict in Ukraine as “Russia’s war” but instead see it as “Putin’s war,” with potentially devastating consequences to the Kremlin.

The professor at the Russian Institute of the Royal College in London says that the invasion was obviously intended to solidify among Russians the sense of their exclusion from the international community that Putin has been talking about; and it has certainly done that. But the war has had other consequences as well.

Given problems at home and the end of the post-Crimea euphoria, Sharafutdinova continues, talk about foreign interference and the need to confront the West was “the only way this leadership could stay in power. The path of war … can thus be seen in hindsight as a way the Russian leadership chose to preserve the political status quo.”

A war is “the ultimate way of constructing a world based on ‘us versus them,’” she says. It is the most powerful means to bring Russian national identity to the fore and making it the dominant position from which ordinary Russians assess their lives and surroundings.” Rulers can use it to justify their position by appealing to “war-time patriotism.”

Sergey Bodrov, a Russian TV hero, says of the current situation: “you cannot speak badly about your own during the war. Never. Even if they are wrong … This simple rule is old and primitive but it works. When the war ends, then yes, you can say this was wrong … and we shouldn’t repeat it.”

For the present, this logic still works for many Russians, Sharafutdinova says. But continuing anti-war demonstrations may change that, with ever more Russians taking their lead from these and from the Internet rather than state television. If that happens, what today is viewed as “Russia’s war” could soon be viewed by the Russian people as “Putin’s” alone.

If that happens, the political consequences are likely to be profound.


TOPICS: History
KEYWORDS: gobblingschwabsballz; paulgoble; putin; russia; ukraine; war

1 posted on 03/05/2022 4:50:07 PM PST by CondoleezzaProtege
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Propaganda language has recent changed “Russian army” to “Kremlin forces”.


2 posted on 03/05/2022 4:53:08 PM PST by Fido969 (45 is Superman!)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Finally an intelligent approach to this situation.


3 posted on 03/05/2022 4:53:18 PM PST by Kevmo (Give back Ukes their Nukes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Puma today announced the suspension of all product deliveries and operation of all stores in Russia

If adidas does the same, the gopniks will storm the Kremlin


4 posted on 03/05/2022 4:54:40 PM PST by Meet the New Boss (In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege
Old Saying: Don't believe a thing you read and only half of what you see.

There is more to this than we can see. It is a situation that if you turn over one rock, there is another and another to be turned over.

5 posted on 03/05/2022 4:57:24 PM PST by Parmy
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

There’s always wheels within wheels, but sometimes a flower is just a flower.

I buy that Putin has bitten off a really tough piece of gristle and leather. But if anything, Biden and the west will posture this. The narration has been a lot of bald faced lies about the invasion and “who is the real enemy,” and deflection extreme cancel culture actions to deflect from people seeing their dirty hands in this mess.


6 posted on 03/05/2022 4:57:58 PM PST by Bayard
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

I realize this suits your narrative

But that is a tiny pro Uke blog

By Paul Goble

A former state and CIA ia anti Trump globalist


7 posted on 03/05/2022 5:02:56 PM PST by wardaddy (Free Republic has gone insane but it's fun)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Now that they can’t use their MaterCards, the Russian people are more likely to see that the globalists are their enemy. And a heinous enemy at that.


8 posted on 03/05/2022 5:10:34 PM PST by BenLurkin ((The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire. Or both.))
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To: Parmy

Unfortunately, you have to be inquisitive enough to turn over that first rock and nowadays, that is a real deterrent.


9 posted on 03/05/2022 5:13:37 PM PST by hardspunned (former GOP globalist stooge)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

[Given problems at home and the end of the post-Crimea euphoria, Sharafutdinova continues, talk about foreign interference and the need to confront the West was “the only way this leadership could stay in power. The path of war … can thus be seen in hindsight as a way the Russian leadership chose to preserve the political status quo.” ]


That is complete bullshit cribbed from Hollywood productions. War abroad requires peace at home. That is why after being bushwhacked and then defeated by the Japanese during the Russo-Japanese War, the Russians backed off instead of trying to take Tokyo and execute the Emperor. If they had put their backs into it, Russia could have conquered Japan.

Russia’s problem was internal turmoil. In fact, that internal turmoil continued to cause problems while it fought WWI, leading ultimately to the October Revolution. Putin is looking abroad precisely because his enemies at home are prostrate at his feet, not because they are lunging for his throat.


10 posted on 03/05/2022 5:19:21 PM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

“....
Russians backed off instead of trying to take Tokyo and execute the Emperor. ....”

Pretty tough to do from the other side of the world using a mostly single track rickety Siberian railway, after the Battle of Tsushima with your fleet at the bottom of the sea and no money to build a new fleet!


11 posted on 03/05/2022 5:30:30 PM PST by Reily
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To: Reily

[Pretty tough to do from the other side of the world using a mostly single track rickety Siberian railway, after the Battle of Tsushima with your fleet at the bottom of the sea and no money to build a new fleet!]


Russia’s economy was over 3x the size of Japan’s at the time. If the Russians had wanted to, they could have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)#1%E2%80%932008_(Maddison)

It would have taken them some time, but that’s the way military expeditions are. It took 4 years before the US was in a position to attack Okinawa, which is a significant distance from mainland Japan. Once the Russians made the decision to devote the resources necessary, they could have streamrolled the Japanese possessions in Manchuria and Korea, then used them as a springboard to attack the Japanese mainland. Russia’s problem was unrest at home, which broke out right after its decision to end hostilities with Japan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution


12 posted on 03/05/2022 5:42:14 PM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege
Putin really didn't do enough propaganda preparation for his own people, which also indicates he expected this to be a brief war.

As casualties mount, his position will become harder and harder sustain. The Russians are willing to make enormous sacrifices for their country, but not for one man's ego.

13 posted on 03/05/2022 7:39:29 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

It is absolutely Putin’s war. I’m sure the majority of Russians think this was a really stupid idea.

The Russians weren’t doing too badly, their standard of living had gone way up since the fall of the USSR and so did their freedom.

Now they’re losing both... again.


14 posted on 03/05/2022 8:24:36 PM PST by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how they control you. )
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

This is Putin’s war.

He deserves to die for imposing it.

So many innocent people being killed and hurt - it can’t be tolerated.

He needs killing.


15 posted on 03/06/2022 3:29:43 AM PST by BeauBo
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To: Zhang Fei

3X the capacity on the other side of the world with a soda straw means of getting its clout there! They might as well not have had it!


16 posted on 03/06/2022 7:37:12 AM PST by Reily
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To: pierrem15; CondoleezzaProtege
As casualties mount, his position will become harder and harder sustain. The Russians are willing to make enormous sacrifices for their country, but not for one man's ego.

This isn't about Putin.

This is about the Techno Oligarchs showing the world who's Boss.

After they cancel a world nuclear power and get away with it, do you actually believe they'll stop there?

You display an astonishing naivete for someone who has been on FR this long.

17 posted on 03/06/2022 9:23:31 AM PST by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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