There are a few reasons why I don't think Bush would nominate Gonzales to the SC next week (to replace O'Connor or Reinquist). 1) It would shift the court from a 2/7 female/male split to a 1/8. This would be bad politics, because, for better or worse, those two seats are "female" seats (just like Thomas's seat is the "African American" seat and for decades we had a "Jewish" seat). 2) It would anger the conservative base to a degree I don't think we've seen before. If Rove's goal was to lose Congress in 2006, then this would be one...