President Elect's first computer analysis of the 2004 presidential race predicts that if the election were held now, Republican candidate George W. Bush would defeat Democratic candidate John Kerry. According to the computer, which takes into account current poll data, past elections, and state voting tendencies, Bush would win 283 electoral votes from 31 states, while Kerry would win 255 electoral votes from 19 states and DC. If "on the edge" states are not included, the count is Bush: 205, Kerry: 183, toss ups: 150