Free Republic

Alarm! No problemo, says James “Bully” Bullard, President of the St Louis Federal Reserve. Bullard said that US recession fears are overblown with consumers “healthy.” Really Jim? Inflation is so bad they REAL average hourly earnings growth keeps falling and is now -3.34% YoY. Apparently, real GDP growth of ZERO doesn’t bother Bullard either. Apparently, we are still Under The Thumb of The Federal Reserve.

The US economy is out of time. As a recession approaches, we are seeing the WIRP implied Fed o/n rate (green line) declining. And with The Fed chickening-out, we saw a surge in equities (NASDAQ composite index in blue). Gasoline prices are falling too (orange line), but due to rising global economic slowdown. But notice that The Fed’s balance sheet (yellow line) is still growing despite repeated signals that Covid stimulus would be removed (I call this Quantitative Frightening). As I mentioned above, The Fed has stopped trimming their balance sheet despite signals to the market of getting rid of...

The United States of America is about to be plunged into a civil war. It will be ignited by the imminent Roe vs. Wade nullification decision by the US Supreme Court, which also just rendered a landmark decision affirming the universal right to carry a personal firearm for self-defense (striking down the New York law that radically restricted the right to bear arms). That pro-2A decision is already seeing heads explode across the anti-American, anti-liberty Left, with rabid left-wing commentator Keith Olbermann even calling for an open insurrection to demolish the US Supreme Court and seize total control over the...

In a normal year, America’s heartland would be brimming with lush, green wheat crops – but this is not a normal year. According to reports, western Kansas is a wasteland of parched, dead fields. Wheat crops have been decimated, which means the American food supply will suffer yet another major blow. “There’s nothing out there,” says Vance Ehmke, a wheat farmer from Lane County. “It’s dead. It’s just ankle-high straw.” Ehmke’s farm is one of many that, after being planted several months ago, now looks like a dust bowl. Rows of brown, shriveled plants nest in hardened dirt that is...

What a legacy for Biden/Pelosi/Schumer/Powell, the four horsemen of the inflation apocalypse. As inflation soars, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index plunged to its lowest level in history. The good news? The University of Michigan Buying Conditions for housing only fell to its lowest level since 1982. The four horsemen of the inflation apocalypse.

The kids running Washington DC are not as sharp as pistols (which they want to take away) when they do the DC stomp. Thanks to massive Fed monetary stimulus still stalking the housing market, US new home sales rose +10.7% MoM (from April to May), but were down -5.9% YoY (from May 2021 to May 2022) as mortgage rates rose. Median price of new home sales rose 42% since May 2021, thanks to Fed stimulypto. And Federal government stimulus spending. Yes, like the predators from the movies, The Fed’s balance sheet is still stalking markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The talk of a gasoline tax “holiday” out of Washington DC is pure Kabuki theater. It is purely a sign of the times with Biden still trying to blame Putin for rising gasoline prices and inflation and ignoring his anti-fossil fuel policies that helped drive energy prices AND inflation through the roof. Daily regular gasoline prices have dipped below $5.00 to $4.94 while diesel fuel, the lifeline of the shipping industry, rose slightly to $5.80. I guess the folks shipping food and other goods don’t get a holiday. Note that the implied Fed target rate has fallen a bit as...

Slippin’ Into Darkness! Despite what Biden and his muppets say, there is a good chance that the US will slip into recession over the next 24 months. And with that, we are seeing a slight drop in US mortgage rates. Inflation is surging, and The Fed seems intent on “inflation fighting” but may have to pause that fight the impending recession. This is called a “U-turn” although Powell didn’t mention that is his testimony yesterday. According to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed dropped below 6% to 5.88%. Europe is signaling their u-turn to recession fighting as 10-year sovereign yield...

I need help from my very enlightened freepers who have infinite knowledge and wisdom to help a woman out. I have a Harvest Right freeze dryer that needs a gasket and an oil/ water separator filter. I need to know the manufacturer and there is nothing on the pump to indicate who made it. Just the words Harvest Right. I called Harvest Right and they don't sell replacement parts and refused to tell me the make and model number. I can't afford a new pump and I'm very disappointed with the company. I can buy a whole new $3500 unit...

Although mortgage rates have been rising quite fast, The Fed’s balance sheet is only being reduced quite slowly, leading to a continuation of the hot, hot, hot housing market. But the expectation of Fed rate hikes is causing mortgage rates to soar and borrowers are trying to get buy housing before The Fed chokes off rates. Mortgage applications increased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 17, 2022. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase...

The US is a movin’ on up to the high side ... of energy prices. Today, WTI crude oil futures broke through the $110 barrier. The WTI Crude crack spread, the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it, is up 535% under President “I HATE OIL!” Biden and diesel fuel is up 121%. WTI crude is up 1% today. “Crack? I thought crack was something that Hunter did!” – Joe Biden

Rising energy prices, rising home prices, rising mortgage rates, declining hope. But as The Federal Reserve begins to withdraw it Covid stimulus, existing home sales declined -3.39% in May from April. But like Covid itself, The Fed’s outrageous monetary stimulus is still in place, helping caused median home prices to rise 14.8% YoY. And inventory for sale is rising, but still remains low. Jointly, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell are “Mr Freeze.”

I run the coffee and doughnuts after the 9:00 AM Mass here in Phoenix, AZ. On Monday morning I go to our doughnut supplier, a Kroger-owned supermarket, and submit my order for 12 dozen doughnuts, describing how many and what kind. The ladies in the bakery apologized as they informed me that they would not be able to fill my order as described due to a "doughnut shortage". A doughnut shortage?! Is nothing sacred? Here we are fiddling with baby formula and right under our noses I am told that there will be no chocolate doughnuts, no cake donuts, and...

How crazy was The Federal Reserve’s overreaction to the government shutdowns surrounding the Covid epidemic? While most analysts talk about California, I am going to discuss … Cleveland Ohio as an example of how The Fed can destroy markets. The Case-Shiller home price index for Cleveland rose 31.5% since January 2020 just before The Fed unleashed its massive monetary stimulus on an unsuspecting city. But as The Fed starts to tighten monetary policy after Yellen’s too loose for too long policies followed by Powell, foreclosure rates are soaring in Cleveland. In fact, according to Attom Data, 5 of the top...

I know that video clip going around looks awful, but let me give some context here. There has been extreme heat and humidity in Western Kansas and cattle have died. This is normal, and 10,000 head total statewide is not a “mass die-off that will cripple the beef supply.” Not even close. There are roughly six million cattle in Kansas. Of those, over two million are “on feed” in confinement feedlots in the western half of the state. In the former United States, something like 125,000 head of cattle are slaughtered per day, Monday through Friday, with a reduced kill...

US Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chain, Janet Yellen, admitted on ABC’s This Week that US inflation is “unacceptably high”and prices are likely to stick with consumers through 2022, and that the US economy is likely to slow down. “We’ve had high inflation so far this year, and that locks in higher inflation for the rest of the year,” she said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “I expect the economy to slow,” she said, adding: “But I don’t think a recession at all inevitable.” US inflation accelerated to 8.6% in May, a fresh 40-year high that signals price pressures...

Where is Stanford’s John Taylor when we need him? Even since the housing bubble burst and ensuing financial crisis on 2007-2008, The Federal Reserve under Ben “The Savior!” Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell let their zero/low interest rate policies be too low for too long that anyone with common sense knew would lead to serious problems when The Fed was forced (this time by inflation) to end the massive OVER monetary stimulus. We are now living through The Great Reset of the US economy. Since Biden was sworn-in as President (or El Presidente) in January 2021, 30-year mortgage rates...

We’ve got a line on The Federal Reserve. They don’t seem to care about housing and the mortgage market. Monthly mortgage payments are soaring as home prices soar AND mortgage rates soar. Mortgage rates have soared with Fed noose tightening. Something has to give. Otherwise, winter is coming. The theme song of The Federal Reserve thinking that rising prices can be tamed by raising rates is “Dear Mr Fantasy.”

Alarm! As The Federal Reserve tightens the monetary noose (Fed Chair Powell said Fed ‘acutely focused’ on returning inflation to 2%), the US economy is slowing. In fact, May’s Industrial Production report is half of what was expected. Industrial production declined to 0.20% MoM versus the expected 0.4%. At the same time, capacity utilization rose slightly to 79%., but still below expectations. Mortgage rates are rising rapidly, but the growth has cooled slightly as the economy cools. Bitcoin is getting demolished by The Fed’s reaction to inflation. And “It’s Not Always Sunny In Philadelphia.” Since the Philadelphia Fed’s Business General...

I couldn’t sleep at all last night … after The Fed cranked up their target rate 75 basis points. The odds of a recession grew to 71.7% as The Fed hikes rates. The NASDAQ index tanked -4% today on the fallout from yesterday’s Fed actions. Do I detect a trend in The Fed’s latest Dot Plot?? So, will The Fed continue to go head-over-heels on monetary tightening?