The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats. Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting. That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020. More important, it’s significantly less than this point...