Free Republic

Six weeks ago this column observed that with the price of gold having passed $1,500, the U.S. economy was already in the midst of a downturn, and that it would be foolhardy to wait for always backward looking and unreliable government statistics to reveal what gold already had. Though unemployment figures are as unreliable as the rest, Friday's anemic report points to a slowdown in economic activity that the dollar's fall in concert with gold's spike foretold. The reason why is very basic. Contrary to the popular view among economists that currency devaluation is necessary during periods of economic hardship,...

The US has entered a second recession. It may not be as bad as the first. Economists say that the Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until July 2009. That may be the way that the economy was seen through the eyes of experts, but many Americans do not believe that the 2008-2009 downturn ever ended. A Gallup poll released in April found that 29% of those queried thought the economy was in a “depression” and 26% said that the original recession had persisted into 2011. It is any wonder that many Americans believe that the economic downturn...

You know that $400,000 house you want to buy; offer them $350,000. If they don’t take it now, they will soon enough. This chart from Business Insider shows what the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index looks like on a graph chart: bad. National home prices are back to their 2002 levels, according to the index data released May 31. As of March 2011, US home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter after falling 3.6% in the fourth quarter in 2010. Home prices are down 5.1% from the first quarter last year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller report. “This month’s report...

A double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the economy's soft patch could become protracted. "The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.The U.S. economy grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and these fresh signs suggest the recovery is still struggling to...

U.S. single-family home prices dropped in March, dipping below their 2009 low, as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand, a closely watched survey said Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' expectations. The price index was below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis. The glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand have kept the housing market on the ropes even as other areas of the economy start to...

Caixin Online May 13, 2011, 12:35 a.m. EDT Chimerica’s slippery slope to stagflation Commentary: U.S., China are heading to another double-dip scare By Andy Xie BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — The global economy is heading toward another double-dip scare, possibly in the third quarter, in what could be a repeat of summer 2010. Financial markets may stumble in a few months, and that could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to introduce a third round of quantitative easing or an equivalent, which would be another step down the path toward stagflation. In this scenario, China’s current monetary-tightening policy would be...

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The evidence of a double-dipping housing market and economy are becoming undeniable, even to those who cling perilously to the notion that government intervention has been a salve instead of a poison. The main evidence presented on the part of the “permabulls” of a healing economy is that corporate earnings have been good. However, S&P 500 earnings from multinational corporations have been significantly boosted by a U.S. dollar DXY +1.28% that has lost nearly 15% of its value in the past 12 months. So earnings look great, but they don’t buy you very much, while...

From CoreLogic (via PragCap): CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its February Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the seventh month in a row. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.7 percent in February 2011 compared to February 2010 after declining by 5.5 percent* in January 2011 compared to January 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.1 percent in February 2011 compared to February 2010 and by 1.4* percent in January 2011 compared to January...

PHILADELPHIA - This may not sound new because we've been talking about it in Philadelphia in connection with its Deferred Retirement Option Plan, or DROP. That has cost the pension fund millions and been abused by elected officials. But now we're looking at it happening in New Jersey. Several high-ranking political leaders found a loophole allowing them to retire and then go back to work, collecting a pension and salary at the same time. Gov. Chris Christie says he will try to close the loophole. But we don't know how many people or even who is doing this. It comes...

Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington. Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the low point of the Great Recession. The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March – the tenth largest drop on record. Part of that drop is attributable to rising fuel and food prices. A separate Conference...

The Truth About The Economy: We're Heading Back Toward A Double Dip Robert Reich Mar. 31, 2011, 10:31 AM Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington. Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the low point of the Great Recession. The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March – the tenth...

The Housing Double Dip Gets Worse AGAIN Joe Weisenthal Mar. 29, 2011, 9:10 AM Courtesy of the Case-Shiller survey, more proof that the housing double dip is getting worse. On a year-over-year basis, house prices fell 3.1% vs. the 2.4% decline in January.

The U.S. economy faces numerous obstacles that threaten to derail the recovery. But economists are most fearful of one major headwind: oil prices. More than two-thirds of the 23 economists surveyed by CNNMoney identified high oil prices as the most serious risk facing the economy. As uprisings spread across the Middle East and North Africa, prices have soared about 15% in the past two months, pushing gas prices higher. And as the situation in Libya escalates, economists are growing more jittery about oil prices, even in the face of other threats to the economy, like the crisis in Japan, cuts...

U.S. stocks plunged deep into the red, joining a global market selloff that started in Tokyo as Japan's nuclear crisis deepened and worries escalated over the human and economic toll of last week's earthquake. The selloff came after news of two more explosions at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant that released large amounts of nuclear material into the atmosphere. Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned of "substantial" radiation leaks. The Nikkei Stock Average plunged more than 14% at one point in afternoon trade before recovering slightly. It was still its worst drop since 2008. The fall came on top of Monday's...

Technically a housing double dip won't happen until national home prices fall below the 2009 low, as David Blitzer explained on CNBC this morning. But today's Case-Shiller chart sure looks like a double dip. In fact, 11 of the cities in Case-Shiller's 20-city index are at new lows for the cycle. These include Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa. In the coming year, Case-Shiller expects more cities to decline, sinking the national index to a brand new low. CLICK ABOVE LINK TO VIEW THE CITIES AND THE PERCENT DROP

Outgoing White House economic adviser Larry Summers warned Wednesday that failure to pass a new tax cut compromise would significantly raise the risk of a double-dip recession. "To pass this bill in the next couple of weeks would materially increase the risk that the economy would stall out and we would have a double dip," he told reporters at the White House.

The US economy added a worse-than-expected 39,000 jobs in November, as the unemployment rate edged higher, underscoring the weakness of a labour market recovery that is struggling to gain traction. snippet... “Any thought that the Fed would scale back its QE2 purchases of Treasuries in the coming months has to be dashed by this report,” said John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics. snippet... “Today’s numbers underscore the importance of extending expiring tax cuts for the middle class and unemployment insurance for those Americans who have lost their jobs,” said Austan Goolsbee, head of the White House’s Council...

The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’. “The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como. “More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency...

13 Signs That The Double Dip Is Now Toast Joe Weisenthal Nov. 8, 2010, 10:09 AM In early September, we identified 9 signs that the double dip was almost certainly toast. Since then, markets have rallied massively, and the economic news has only improved. Whether you're looking at financial markets or real-world economic activity, there are signs all over the place that the nail is being hammered right now in the coffin of the double dippers. Yes, the US still has serious structural problems but for now, things are looking up. Click here to see the signs >

Double Dip Delayed, Not Derailed; Understanding Consumer Spending by: Michael Shedlock October 29, 2010 The BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6. How sustainable is that? The answer is not very. This is likely the last hurrah for inventory replenishment even without factoring in upcoming cutbacks at the state level. Not a V-Shaped Recovery In terms of real final sales, this "recovery", is the weakest on record. Dave...