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Two measures of manufacturing sentiment in January matched their worst performance in a year, a sign that sputtering overseas growth as well as the rapid deterioration in commodity prices is hurting U.S. businesses. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 53.5% from 55.1% in December, a reading that was below the MarketWatch-compiled consensus for a reading of 55%. U.S. stocks SPX, -0.41% moved lower in the immediate aftermath of the report. What has been good news for the U.S. consumer — tumbling gas prices — isn’t proving to be as good for U.S. business. That’s...

By 2015 hard commodity prices will have collapsed Posted by Michael on September 16, 2012 in Commodities For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we still have a very long way to go. There are four reasons why I expect prices to drop a lot more.　First, during the last decade commodity producers were caught by surprise by the surge in demand. Their belated response was to ramp up production...

When the upswing in commodity prices eventually makes its way throughout the food system in mid-to-late 2011, food prices are sure to spike with levels potentially reaching those of 2008, announced U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) economist Ephraim Leibtag at the agency's annual Outlook Forum. And if conditions escalate rapidly, there is also the potential for food riots and other civil unrest. The USDA is predicting a 3.5 percent increase in food prices in 2011, which is about twice the overall inflation rate but less than the 2008 increase, according to a recent Reuters report. In 2008, food prices rose...

Apocalypse Avoided, For Now by: Cam Hui June 21, 2010 Last week I wrote about the possibility of another financial Armegeddon: I have become increasingly concerned about the markets and the economy, largely because of the poor behavior of economically sensitive commodity prices. If the current commodity weakness were to persist, then conditions may be setting up for a repeat of the Great Bear of 2008. In a subsequent post, I set out some goals for the bulls to achieve in order to stave off a “deflation” signal on my Inflation-Deflation Timer model which would signal the kind of waterfall...