Free Republic

Tropical Depression Epsilon Discussion Number 37
Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 08, 2005

 
convection has vanished and Epsilon is now a tight swirl of low
clouds. The cyclone is weakening rapidly and is forecast to become
a remnant low within the next 12 hours. The depression or the
remnant low is forecast to move toward the southwest about 5 to 10
knots steered by the low level flow until dissipation. I hope this
is the end of the long lasting 2005 hurricane season.

Additional information on this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

 
Forecaster Avila

  
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      08/1500z 26.4n  40.3w    30 kt
 12hr VT     09/0000z 26.0n  41.0w    25 kt...remnant low
 24hr VT     09/1200z 25.5n  42.0w    25 kt...remnant low
 36hr VT     10/0000z...dissipated

 
$$

Yup, looks like we can finally say goodbye to Epsilon, and to the 2005 season:

Tropical Depression Epsilon Advisory Number 37
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 08, 2005

...Epsilon weakening rapidly...this is the last advisory...
...It is about time...

 
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Epsilon was
located near latitude 26.4 north...longitude  40.3 west or about
1115 miles...1795 km...southwest of the Azores.

 
The depression is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph...11
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation

 
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Epsilon is forecast to dissipate in a day or so.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...26.4 N... 40.3 W.  Movement
toward...southwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. 
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

 
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

Forecaster Avila

 
$$

It's finally starting to weaken, and it's got a cold front moving toward it.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 35
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on December 07, 2005

 
...Epsilon begins to weaken...should dissipate within a day or
two...

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 27.8 north... longitude 39.2 west or about
995 miles...1605 km... southwest of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is moving toward the southwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr.  This
motion is expected to slow considerably over the next 24 hours. 

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Upper-level winds have become extremely hostile over Epsilon
and rapid weakening is expected over the next 24 hours.  Epsilon is
expected to become absorbed by a cold front by Friday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  994 mb...29.35 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...27.8 N... 39.2 W.  Movement
toward...southwest near 12 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 
$$

I think Epsilon has the NHC stumped. Maybe the Yakuza really is controlling it. ;)

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25
Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 05, 2005

 
satellite presentation has not changed significantly since
yesterday. The amount of deep convection in the eyewall has
continued to fluctuate and it is currently surrounding the large eye
again. Objective T-numbers for the past 3 hours have been
oscillating around 4.5 suggesting winds of 75 knots but the
subjective numbers are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale or 65 knots. Initial
intensity is set in between at 70 knots. Epsilon has ignored the
cold SSTs as well as the strong upper-level westerlies and has
maintained hurricane strength. I am am not going to speculate any
more on the future intensity of Epsilon and will just follow SHIPS
and GFDL which are the best guidance available. SHIPS model
gradually weakens the cyclone and the GFDL keeps it as a hurricane
for nearly 3 days. The official intensity forecast is then a
compromise between these two models. Both of the models either
weaken or dissipate Epsilon beyond 3 days and so the the official
forecast.

 
Epsilon is moving toward east-southeast or 105 degrees at 7 knots.
There has been no change in the steering currents and global models
insist on developing a mid-level high to the north and a cut off
low to the southeast of Epsilon. This pattern should force Epsilon
on a southwesterly track in day or so. By then...Epsilon is expected
to be a weakening tropical cyclone or a remnant low.

 
Forecaster Avila

  
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      05/1500z 33.6n  35.1w    70 kt
 12hr VT     06/0000z 33.3n  34.0w    65 kt
 24hr VT     06/1200z 32.0n  34.0w    55 kt
 36hr VT     07/0000z 30.5n  35.5w    45 kt
 48hr VT     07/1200z 29.0n  37.0w    30 kt
 72hr VT     08/1200z 26.0n  40.0w    25 kt...remnant low
 96hr VT     09/1200z 23.0n  43.0w    25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT     10/1200z 19.5n  47.0w    20 kt...remnant low

 
$$

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 05, 2005

 
...Hurricane Epsilon refuses to weaken...future intensity
uncertain...

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 33.6 north...longitude  35.1 west or about  545
miles... 880 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today and a
turn toward the southwest is likely in a day or two.   

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  982 mb...29.00 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.6 N... 35.1 W.  Movement
toward...east-southeast near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

 
$$

This discussion is a hoot. :)

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21
Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 04, 2005

 
after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images
indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more
symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday.
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this
basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are
no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain
the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the
facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the
best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water
...High shear and dry air.

 
Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong
mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global
models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge
which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward.
There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion.
Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward
the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be
highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I
heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?

 
Forecaster Avila

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      04/1500z 34.3n  39.2w    75 kt
 12hr VT     05/0000z 34.3n  37.2w    60 kt
 24hr VT     05/1200z 34.0n  35.0w    50 kt
 36hr VT     06/0000z 33.5n  33.5w    40 kt...extratropical
 48hr VT     06/1200z 32.0n  33.5w    30 kt...remnant low
 72hr VT     07/1200z 29.0n  36.0w    25 kt...remnant low
 96hr VT     08/1200z 25.5n  39.0w    25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT     09/1200z 21.5n  44.0w    25 kt...remnant low

 
$$

Epsilon just won't quit, will it?

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 21
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 04, 2005

...Epsilon regains hurricane strength...but forecast to weaken...

 
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 34.3 north...longitude  39.2 west or about  725
miles...1170 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is moving toward the east near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near  85 mph...140
km/hr...with higher gusts. A gradual weakening should begin later
today.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles...35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to  85 miles...140 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  979 mb...28.91 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...34.3 N... 39.2 W.  Movement
toward...east near 12 mph.  Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. 
Minimum central pressure... 979 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

  
$$

Good tip. I ran it through, then corrected some misspellings and other errors:

tropical weather summary (text)

---

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011328
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU DEC 1 2005
 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
 
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the most active on record.
Twenty-six named tropical storms formed...breaking the old record
of 21 set back in 1933. Thirteen storms became hurricanes...
breaking the old record of 12 set back in 1969. Seven of the
hurricanes became major hurricanes...Category Three or higher on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale...including three...Katrina...
Rita...and Wilma...which reached Category Five intensity. This is
the first time since 1851 that three Category Five storms have been
known to occur in a season. The season also included three
depressions that did not reach tropical storm strength.

In contrast...based on the average for the last 40 years...in an
average season there would have been 11 named storms...6 hurricanes
...and 2 major hurricanes.

These numbers could change...as Cindy may be upgraded to a hurricane
at landfall in Louisiana...and Emily may have briefly reached
Category Five strength.

Arlene formed on 8 June near the northeastern coast of Honduras and
became a tropical storm on the 9 June about 170 miles
west-southwest of Grand Cayman Island. Arlene moved slowly
northward with steady intensification and crossed western Cuba near
Cabo Corrientes with winds of 50 mph. The storm continued northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico where it reached its peak intensity
of 70 mph. Thereafter...Arlene weakened and made landfall near
Pensacola Florida with 60 mph winds. The cyclone continued to
weaken as it moved northward farther inland and was absorbed by a
frontal system on 14 June over southeastern Canada. One student
died in a rip current triggered by Arlene at Miami Beach Florida.
The damage caused by Arlene was minimal.

Tropical Storm Bret originated from a tropical wave and a weak area
of surface low pressure that crossed Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico from 24-27 June. On the 28th...the
associated area of disturbed weather became better organized over
the Bay of Campeche. A tropical depression formed later that day
about 60 miles northeast of Veracruz Mexico. The cyclone quickly
strengthened into a tropical storm. Bret moved west-northwestward
and made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan early on 29
June with maximum winds of 40 mph in a very small area near the
center. The system dissipated over the mountains of Mexico later
that same day. Bret produced flooding in the state of Veracruz...
where there was 1 confirmed death. However...several persons...in 2
vehicles that were swept away by floodwaters in Naranjos Veracruz
...were reported missing.

Tropical Storm Cindy formed on 3 July in the extreme western
Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan-Belize border. The cyclone
moved northwestward across the Yucatan peninsula before emerging
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on 4 July. Once over the warm
gulf waters...the depression strengthened into a tropical storm
early on 5 July as the cyclone turned northward. Despite the very
warm water ahead of Cindy... only slow intensification occurred due
to moderate wind shear until just before landfall when more
significant strengthening occurred. Cindy made landfall at near
hurricane intensity early on 6 July over southeastern Louisiana
just to the southwest of Grand Isle. Cindy turned northeastward and
passed over the New Orleans area and merged with a frontal system
over northern Georgia later that day. Extratropical Cindy moved
northeastward along the Appalachian Mountains and across New
England and southeastern Canada before dissipating over the Gulf of
St. Lawrence on 11 July. The main effect from Cindy was heavy
rainfall that caused flooding across southeastern Louisiana...
southern Mississippi...much of Alabama...the Florida panhandle...
and Georgia. As an extratropical low... Cindy also produced locally
heavy rainfall across much of the eastern U.S. Along and east of
the Appalachian Mountains. Cindy caused one death in Georgia due to
flooding. Damages caused by Cindy were minimal.

Hurricane Dennis developed on 4 July from a tropical wave near the
southern Windward Islands. The depression moved west-northwestward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea...became a tropical
storm on 5 July...and strengthened into a hurricane early on 6 July
about 245 miles east-southeast of Jamaica. Dennis intensified over
the next 2 days and became a major hurricane on the 7 July... and a
strong Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph on 8 July just
south of central Cuba. Dennis passed over Cabo Cruz cuba early on 8
July with winds of 135 mph... and then made landfall along the
south-central coast of Cuba that afternoon near Cienfuegos with
winds of 145 mph. Considerable damage occurred across central and
eastern Cuba...including widespread utility and communications
outages. After making landfall...Dennis passed very near Havana and
weakened to a Category 1 hurricane before emerging over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico early on 9 July. Although Dennis
re-intensified into a Category 4 hurricane early on the 10 July
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...it weakened to Category 3
strength before making landfall over the western Florida panhandle
near Navarre Beach late on 10 July. Dennis weakened to a low
pressure area over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and eventually
dissipated over southeastern Canada on 18 July. 

Forty-one deaths were reported in association with Dennis...22 in
Haiti...16 in Cuba...and 3 in the United States. Considerable storm
surge related damage occurred near St. Marks Florida...well east of
the landfall location. Heavy rainfall and flooding occurred across
much of Florida and extended well inland over portions of the
southeastern United States. The damage associated with Dennis is
estimated at $1.84 billion.

Emily formed from a tropical wave on 11 July about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Moving westward...the
depression became a tropical storm the following day. On 14 July...
just as Emily was passing through the southern Windward Islands...
it abruptly strengthened and became a hurricane very near Grenada
...and later that day became a major hurricane in the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Over the next few days it moved west-northwestward
across the Caribbean...reaching a peak intensity of 155 mph...just
below the Category 5 threshold...when it was south of Hispaniola.
Emily passed to the south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...and
then struck Cozumel and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico on 18 July
with maximum winds near 135 mph. Emily crossed the Yucatan and
weakened...but became a major hurricane again in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Emily made its final landfall on 20 July in
northeastern Mexico about 75 miles south of the Texas border...
with maximum winds near 125 mph. Emily then weakened and dissipated
the following day over northern Mexico. 

Five deaths have been attributed to Emily... 1 in Grenada and 4
in Jamaica. However...a final count of the casualties is not yet
available. Damage assessments are also ongoing and estimates are
not yet available.

Tropical Storm Franklin formed from a tropical wave and became a
tropical depression on 21 July near the central Bahamas. It became
a tropical storm that evening...but tropical storm-force winds
remained east of the Bahamas. Franklin turned toward the north and
then northeastward during the next two days while strengthening to
its peak intensity of 70 mph on 23 July. During 23-26 July...
Franklin moved erratically toward the east-northeast in the general
direction of Bermuda... and winds weakened to 40 mph by 25 July due
to northwesterly wind shear. The closest approach to Bermuda by
Franklin was about 185 miles to the west on 26 July...and no
tropical storm-force winds occurred on Bermuda. Franklin then moved
slowly in a general northward direction on 27-28 July while its
winds restrengthened to near 60 mph. On 28 July... a frontal system
moved off the east coast of the United States and accelerated
Franklin toward the northeast. Franklin began to weaken after
passing north of the gulf stream early on 29 July... became
extratropical late on 29 July... and merged with a frontal zone
while passing south of Newfoundland on 30-31 July. No reports of
damage or casualties due to Franklin have been received.

Tropical Storm Gert formed in the Bay of Campeche on 23 July and
moved slowly toward the west-northwest. Gert made landfall near
Cabo Rojo on the eastern coast of Mexico late on 24 July with 45
mph winds. Gert brought locally heavy rainfall to those areas that
had been affected by Hurricane Emily less than a week earlier. Gert
dissipated well inland over central Mexico on 26 July. No reports
of casualties or damage have been received.

Harvey formed from a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa
on 23 July. This wave showed signs of organization as it moved
westward across the tropical Atlantic for several days... before
emerging over the northeastern Caribbean Sea on 29 July. An
associated area of disturbed weather crossed Hispaniola on 30 July
and moved northward for a couple of days. The system organized into
a tropical depression on 2 August about 370 miles southwest of
Bermuda. Moving north-northeastward... the cyclone strengthened
into Tropical Storm Harvey on 3 August. On 4 August...Harvey turned
toward the northeast and east-northeast... passed about 45 miles
south-southeast of Bermuda...and strengthened to its peak intensity
of 65 mph. Bermuda reported sustained winds of 37 mph with a gust
to 51 mph when Harvey passed by. The storm turned northeastward on
6 August and stayed on that general heading for a couple of days.
It lost tropical characteristics late on 8 August about 535 miles
southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. The large and powerful
extratropical cyclone lingered over the north Atlantic for several
days before finally losing its identity on 14 August. No reports of
damage or casualties due to Harvey have been received.

Hurricane Irene was a long-lived Cape Verde tropical cyclone that
remained over the open Atlantic throughout its lifetime and became
a strong Category 2 hurricane well to the north of Bermuda. Irene
formed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 1
August. It developed into a depression on 4 August about 690 miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands...but turned northwestward
across cooler waters. Further development was halted until 7 August
when it strengthened to a tropical storm about 1250 miles east of
the northern Leeward Islands. Irene moved over the open waters of
the central tropical Atlantic for the next few days...weakening to
a tropical depression before restrengthening to a tropical storm on
10 August. Irene turned northwestward and moved between Bermuda and
Cape Hatteras on 14 August. Irene turned north-northeastward and
strengthened into a hurricane...reaching its peak intensity of 105
mph on the 15th. The hurricane turned to the east and weakened.
Irene then moved east-northeastward over much cooler waters and
became extratropical about 295 miles east-southeast of Cape Race
Newfoundland on 18 August. No reports of damage or casualties due
to Irene have been received.

Tropical Depression Ten developed from a tropical wave on 13 August
about 1050 miles east of Barbados. Strong vertical wind shear
caused the westward-moving cyclone to dissipate the next day. The
remnants of TD-10 moved west-northwestward until 20 August... and
the remnant mid-level part of the system likely contributed to the
initial development of Hurricane Katrina. No reports of damage or
casualties due to Tropical Depression Ten have been received.

Jose was a short-lived tropical storm that formed from a tropical
wave on 22 August over the Bay of Campeche about 80 miles
east-northeast of Veracruz. It became a tropical storm later that
day...and made landfall late that evening about 35 miles north of
Veracruz with maximum winds of near 50 mph. Jose soon dissipated
over the mountains of eastern Mexico. Jose was responsible for 6
deaths in Mexico.

Katrina will likely be recorded as the most devastating hurricane in
the history of the United States...producing catastrophic damage
and hundreds of casualties in the New Orleans area and along the
Mississippi gulf coast... and additional casualties in south
Florida. Katrina was directly responsible for an estimated 1200
deaths in the United States... making it the deadliest U. S.
hurricane since the Palm Beach-Lake Okeechobee hurricane of
September 1928. Katrina also caused an estimated $80 billion
dollars in damage... making it the costliest U. S. Hurricane on
record.

This horrific tropical cyclone formed from a tropical wave...
becoming a depression about 175 miles southeast of Nassau in the
Bahamas on 23 August. It became a tropical storm the following day.
Katrina moved northwestward through the Bahamas...and then turned
westward toward south Florida and gradually strengthened. Katrina
became a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall near the
Miami-Dade/Broward County line during the evening of 25 August.
Katrina moved southwestward across south Florida...dumping over a
foot of rain... Toppling trees and power lines... and damaging
homes and businesses in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Katrina
also brought heavy rains and sustained tropical storm-force winds
to portions of the Florida Keys. After entering the Gulf of Mexico
...Katrina strengthened significantly... reaching Category 5
intensity on 28 August about 250 miles south-southeast of the mouth
of the Mississippi River. Later that day... Katrina's winds reached
a peak intensity of 175 mph and the pressure fell to 902 mb...which
was at the time the fourth lowest pressure on record. Katrina
turned to the northwest and then north... Making landfall in
Plaquemines Parish Louisiana just south of Buras with an
operationally estimated 140 mph winds...Category 4...at 610 am cdt
on 29 August. Continuing northward...Katrina made a second landfall
near the Louisiana/Mississippi border at 1000 am cdt...with maximum
winds operationally estimated at 125 mph...Category 3. Post-storm
analysis of Katrina's intensity is still in progress. Katrina
weakened as it moved inland to the north-northeast but was still a
hurricane 100 miles inland near Laurel Mississippi. Katrina
continued to weaken and became a tropical depression near
Clarksville Tennessee on 30 August.

Tropical Storm Lee developed from a tropical wave over the central
tropical Atlantic...first becoming a depression on 28 August about
925 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression dissipated
the following day...but its remnants redeveloped into a depression
and then a storm on 31 August. The system then quickly weakened and
dissipated the next day several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.
No reports of damage or casualties due to Lee have been received.

Maria developed from a vigorous tropical wave that crossed the west
coast of Africa on 27 August. The system became a tropical
depression on 1 September while centered about 1100 miles east of
the northern Leeward Islands. Moving west-northwestward to
northwestward...the cyclone strengthened into a tropical storm on 2
September. Maria turned north-northwestward and became a hurricane
on 4 September. Peak intensity...115 mph... was reached early on 6
September when the cyclone was centered about 470 miles east of
Bermuda. Maria recurved northeastward and weakened to a tropical
storm before regaining hurricane intensity on 7 September. Over the
next few days the intensity slowly decreased... and Maria weakened
to a tropical storm early on 9 September. Maria became a powerful
extratropical storm over the north Atlantic about 730 miles
east-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland on 10 September. The storm
moved into Scandinavia on 14 September... ehere it caused a
landslide and 1 death in Norway.

Hurricane Nate formed from a tropical wave that exited the coast of
Africa on 30 August. The northern portion of the wave broke away
and moved northwestward as it interacted with a weak upper-level
trough near Bermuda. A tropical depression formed late on 5
September about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda...and the system
quickly strengthened into a tropical storm just 6 hours later. Nate
drifted northeastward for the next 2 days and rapidly intensified
into a hurricane by 7 September. Early on 8 September...Nate
quickly accelerated east-northeastward and briefly threatened
Bermuda. However...the hurricane passed well to the southeast of
the island and gradually weakened back to a tropical storm on 9
September. Slow weakening continued as upper-level shear increased
ahead of an approaching frontal system...and Nate transformed into
a strong extratropical low pressure system on 10 September about
midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands. Extratropical low
Nate continued to move quickly to the east-northeast and merged
with a frontal system later that day about 900 miles west-southwest
of the Azores. No reports of damage or casualties due to Nate have
been received.

Erratic Hurricane Ophelia formed from an area of disturbed weather
along the western end of an old frontal system. The cyclone began
to organize on 4 September over the central and northwestern
Bahamas...and a tropical depression formed on 6 September near
Grand Bahama Island. The depression moved erratically
north-northwestward and became Tropical Storm Ophelia on 7
September about 115 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.
Ophelia meandered off the central Florida coast for the next two
days...briefly becoming a hurricane on 8 September. Ophelia began a
northeastward motion late on 9 September...which continued until it
again stalled on 11 September about 235 miles south of Cape
Hatteras North Carolina. During that time...it twice reached
hurricane strength before weakening back to a tropical storm.
Ophelia made a slow loop on 12-13 September...moving southwestward
and northwestward before beginning a northward motion toward the
North Carolina coast. The cyclone became a hurricane yet again late
on 13 September...and maximum sustained winds reached 85 mph by the
time the northern eyewall reached the North Carolina coast near
Cape Fear on 14 September. Ophelia turned slowly east-northeastward
with the center passing south of Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras on
15 September. It then weakened to a tropical storm early on 16
September about 45 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Ophelia
accelerated to the northeast later on 16 September and passed east
of Cape Cod the next day. The storm transformed into an
extratropical low near Nova Scotia early on 18 September...passed
over Newfoundland on 19 September...and reached the eastern
Atlantic on 21 September. Extratropical Ophelia dissipated over the
North Sea on 23 September.

One death was attributed to Ophelia...a drowning along the
southeastern coast of Florida. The storm caused an estimated $1.6
billion in the United States...with significant beach erosion noted
from the North Carolina coast southward to the central Florida
coast.

Philippe formed from a tropical wave...becoming a depression on 17
September about 305 miles east of Barbados. The depression became a
tropical storm later that day. Philippe moved north-northeastward
to the east of the Lesser Antilles and strengthened...becoming a
hurricane on 19 September about 390 miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Philippe reached its peak intensity of 80 mph early the
following day. Continuing to the north-northwest over open
waters... Philippe weakened to a tropical storm late on 20
September. The cyclone turned northward and its circulation became
embedded within a larger non-tropical area of low pressure on 22
September. Rotating counter-clockwise within the larger low...
Philippe turned to the west and south...and weakened to a tropical
depression the next day. The circulation of Philippe was absorbed
by the non-tropical low early on 24 September. No reports of damage
or casualties due to Philippe have been received.

Rita was an intense...destructive... and deadly hurricane that
significantly impacted the Florida Keys and devastated portions of
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Rita became a depression
just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands late on 17 September. It
moved westward and became a tropical storm the following afternoon.
Continuing on through the central Bahamas on 19 September...Rita
approached hurricane strength with 70 mph winds. While Rita did not
strengthen during the following night...it rapidly intensified on
20 September while moving through the Florida Straits. It reached
Category Two intensity as the center passed about 50 miles south of
Key West. Even though the center did not make landfall in the
Florida Keys...it downed trees and produced storm tides of up to
five feet in portions of the island chain... flooding sections of
U.S. Highway 1 and many other streets...as well as several homes
and businesses.

After entering the Gulf of Mexico... Rita intensified at a rapid
rate... from Category Two to Category Five in about 24 hours...
with winds reaching 165 mph on the afternoon of 21 September. The
hurricane strengthened further and reached a peak intensity of 175
mph early on 22 September about 570 miles east-southeast of
Galveston Texas. The central pressure fell to 897 mb...which at the
time was the third lowest on record in the Atlantic Basin. Rita
began to weaken later that day... but as it passed through the Gulf
of Mexico... it produced storm surge flooding in portions of the
New Orleans area that had previously been inundated by Katrina.
Rita turned northwestward and weakened to Category Three on 23
September. It then made landfall around 230 am cdt 24 September
just east of the Texas/Louisiana border between Sabine Pass and
Johnson's Bayou...still at Category Three intensity with 120 mph
winds. Rita caused devastating storm surge flooding and wind damage
in southwestern Louisiana and extreme southeastern Texas. It
weakened after moving inland...but remained a tropical storm until
reaching northwestern Louisiana late on 24 September. It then
turned northeastward and merged with a frontal system two days
later. Rita caused 6 deaths and damage estimated at $9.4 billion in
the United States.

Tropical Depression Nineteen formed on 30 September about 665 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The system moved slowly
northwestward and dissipated on 2 October about 780 miles west of
the Cape Verde Islands. No reports of damage or casualties due to
TD-19 have been received.

Stan developed from a tropical wave that generated a persistent 
area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea in late
September. A tropical depression eventually formed on 1 October
about 110 miles southeast of Cozumel Mexico. The cyclone moved
west-northwestward... attaining tropical storm status just before
crossing the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula about 40 miles
south of Tulum Mexico on 2 October. Stan traversed Yucatan and
weakened to a depression... but it soon regained tropical storm
strength after it moved into the Bay of Campeche on 3 October. The
storm turned from a westward to a southwestward heading and
continued to strengthen. Stan became a hurricane as it neared the
coast of Mexico on 4 October and made landfall later that day about
90 miles east-southeast of Veracruz with maximum winds estimated at
80 mph. The cyclone weakened rapidly after moving inland and
dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico on 5 October.

Around the time of Stan's existence...torrential rains caused severe
flash floods and mud slides over portions of Mexico and Central
America...including Guatemala...El Salvador...Nicaragua... Honduras
...and Costa Rica. The estimated death toll associated with this
weather system ranges from 1000-2000. As best as can be determined
...Stan itself was responsible for 80 of these deaths.

Tammy was a short-lived tropical storm that developed just east of
the central Florida coast as a result of complex interaction
between an upper-level low and a tropical wave. Early on 5 October
...Tammy quickly developed into a tropical storm about 20 miles
east of Cape Canaveral Florida. The cyclone moved steadily
north-northwestward parallel to the Florida east coast most of the
day... before it turned northwestward and made landfall along the
northeastern Florida coast near Mayport very late that day with
maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Tammy moved westward over
southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama on 6 October before
becoming absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system
over the Florida panhandle. No significant damage occurred to
structures... but locally heavy rainfall of 3-5 inches did produce
some minor flooding across northeastern Florida and southern
Georgia.

short-lived Subtropical Depression Twenty-Two formed on 8 October
about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda from a non-tropical low
pressure system. The cyclone moved northwestward to westward and
degenerated into a low pressure area about 175 miles west-southwest
of Bermuda on 10 October. The remnants of the depression merged
with a cold front on 11 October and became an extratropical gale
center off the U. S. Mid-atlantic states on 12 October. This low
was absorbed by a larger non-tropical low on 14 October. No reports
of damage or casualties due to STD-22 have been received.

Vince... the first known tropical cyclone to make landfall in
Spain... developed from a non-tropical area of low pressure in the
eastern Atlantic. The low gradually acquired tropical
characteristics and became a tropical storm on 9 October about 515
miles east-southeast of the Azores Islands. It strengthened and
became a hurricane later that day as it moved slowly northeastward
to the northwest of the Madeira Islands. It weakened to a tropical
storm the next day as it accelerated east-northeastward. On 11
October... Vince weakened to a tropical depression shortly before
making landfall near Huelva Spain. Vince lost tropical
characteristics shortly after making landfall. No reports of damage
or casualties due to Vince have been received.

Wilma formed from a large area of disturbed weather that stretched
across much of the Caribbean Sea during the second week of October.
A surface low pressure system gradually became defined near Jamaica
and a tropical depression developed about 215 miles southeast of
Grand Cayman Island on 15 October. The tropical cyclone moved
erratically westward and southward for two days while slowly
strengthening into a tropical storm. Wilma became a hurricane and
began a west-northwestward motion on 18 October. Later that day...
Wilma began to explosively deepen. On 19 October it became a
Category 5 hurricane...and its minimum central pressure dropped to
an estimated 882 mb... while its very small eye was centered about
365 miles southeast of Cozumel. This is the lowest pressure on
record for a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. Wilma's maximum
intensity is estimated to have been 175 mph. On 20 October Wilma
weakened slightly and turned northwestward toward the northeastern
Yucatan peninsula. On 21 October...the hurricane made landfall over
Cozumel... and early the next day it made landfall over the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula... both at Category 4 intensity.
Wilma moved slowly and weakened over northeastern Yucatan and
emerged over the Gulf of Mexico early on 23 October as a Category 2
hurricane. Later that day it turned northeastward and accelerated
toward the southern Florida peninsula. The hurricane strengthened
as it approached the southwestern Florida coast... and it made
landfall near Cape Romano on 24 October with Category 3 intensity.
The system continued to accelerate northeastward...crossing Florida
in less than 5 hours. Wilma moved into the Atlantic just to the
north of Palm Beach as a Category 2 hurricane. It regained Category
3 status just off the east-central coast of Florida...and gradually
weakened thereafter. The hurricane moved rapidly northeastward over
the western Atlantic and lost tropical characteristics about 205
miles south-southeast of Halifax Nova Scotia on 25 October.

At this time...22 deaths have been directly attributed to Wilma.
Wilma caused extensive damage in northeastern Yucatan...including
Cancun and Cozumel...and southern Florida. The hurricane also
produced major flooding over western Cuba. Damage in the United
States is estimated at $14.4 billion.

Due to the extremely active 2005 hurricane season... the National
Hurricane Center for the first time had to resort to using the
Greek alphabet when Tropical Storm Alpha formed from a vigorous
tropical wave near the Windward Islands on 21 October. Shower
activity became concentrated south of Puerto Rico... and radar data
from the island helped determine that a tropical depression formed
early on 22 October. The depression became Tropical Storm Alpha
later that day. Alpha moved northwestward and data from Hispaniola
indicate that the cyclone made landfall near Barahona in the
Dominican Republic with 50 mph winds. Alpha weakened to a tropical
depression over the high terrain of Hispaniola... and it continued
northwestward and northward over the southeastern Bahamas and the
Atlantic on 23 October. The cyclone weakened to a trough as it
approached the much larger circulation of Hurricane Wilma on 24
October. Alpha caused 20 deaths in Hispaniola...primarily from
flooding caused by heavy rains.

Beta developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea from a
tropical wave. A surface low pressure system formed along the wave
axis near the coast of Colombia on 25 October. The system became a
tropical depression the next day about 170 miles east of the Costa
Rica-Nicaragua border. The depression moved slowly northward for a
couple of days... becoming a tropical storm on 27 October. Beta
strengthened into a hurricane on 29 October near Providencia
Island. It then turned westward and west-southwestward and
strengthened into a Category Three hurricane on 30 October. Beta
weakened slightly later that day and made landfall as a Category
Two hurricane on the central east coast of Nicaragua near La Barra.
The cyclone moved westward over land and dissipated over western
Nicaragua early on 31 October. 

Beta caused widespread damage on Providencia Island.  Extensive
damage to structures was reported along the central Nicaraguan
coast.  Significant flooding also occurred in Honduras.

The vigorous tropical wave that spawned Gamma passed through the
southern Windward Islands on 13 November and produced wind gusts to
near tropical storm-force along with heavy rainfall. Early on 14
November... Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven formed over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea about 100 miles west of St. Vincent
Island. The depression continued on a westward track and may have
briefly reached tropical storm strength on 15 November before
strong westerly upper-level shear displaced the thunderstorm
activity to the east and caused the cyclone to degenerate back into
a tropical wave. The remnants of TD-27 accelerated westward across
the central Caribbean Sea on 17 November before slowing down and
reaching the western Caribbean Sea and eastern Honduras on 18
November. A large non-convective low pressure system developed over
Panama and moved northwestward and merged with the remnants of
TD-27 over central Honduras... and it is estimated that Tropical
Storm Gamma formed near the northern coast of Honduras later that
day. While the other low pressure system likely aided the
generation of Tropical Storm Gamma...convection associated with the
low- to mid-level vorticity center of TD-27 maintained continuity
throughout its lifetime... and it is estimated that the low-level
circulation of the other non-convective low merged with the remnant
low-level circulation of TD-27 over the mountains of central
Honduras. Gamma drifted northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and strengthened to 55 mph east of Roatan Island on 19 November
...and turned slowly southeastward on 20-21 November. Upper-level
northwesterly shear weakened the cyclone and it degenerated into a
non-convective remnant low late on 21 November and dissispated on
22 November just east of the Nicaragua-Honduras border. 

Heavy rainfall caused flash floods and mud slides in Honduras and
Belize. At this time... the flooding associated with Gamma has
resulted in a total of 37 deaths... 34 in Honduras and 3 in Belize. 
At least 13 people in Honduras were also missing.  Ten bridges were
destroyed and 7 more were damaged in Honduras. 

Delta originated from an extratropical low over the central
Atlantic. On 19 November this system was located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. The low moved eastward and then
northeastward... reaching a position about 800 miles southwest of
the Azores on 22 November. The low turned southward later that day
and developed into a subtropical storm. Delta continued southward
on 23 November as it became a tropical storm...and winds reached an
estimated 70 mph the next day while the storm moved southeastward.
Delta moved erratically southward through 26 November while
weakening...then it turned northeastward and and strengthened on 27
November...with winds again reaching 70 mph. Delta turned eastward
and became a vigorous extratropical low on 28 November about 350
miles west-northwest of the Canary Islands. The extratropical low
brought wind gusts of hurricane force to the Canary Islands on 28
November before weakening and moving into Morocco on 29 November.
Seven deaths on or near the Canary Islands were attributed to the
extratropical stage of Delta.

Tropical Storm Epsilon...like its predecessor...developed from an
extratropical low over the central Atlantic about midway between
the Azores and Bermuda on 29 November. Epsilon moved west-
southwestward and slowly strengthened.... and at month's end was
located several hundred miles east of Bermuda and moving
east-northeastward over the open waters of the central Atlantic.


SUMMARY TABLE

NAME              DATES       MAX WIND   DEATHS   U.S. DAMAGE
			        MPH	          $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
TS  ARLENE      8-13 JUN         70         1      MINOR
TS  BRET       28-29 JUN         40         1          0
TS  CINDY       3-7  JUL         70         1      MINOR
H   DENNIS      4-13 JUL        150        41       1840
H   EMILY      11-21 JUL        155         5      MINOR
TS  FRANKLIN   21-29 JUL         70         0          0
TS  GERT       23-25 JUL         45         0          0
TS  HARVEY      2-8  AUG         65         0          0
H   IRENE       4-18 AUG        105         0          0
TD  TEN        13-14 AUG         35         0          0
TS  JOSE       22-23 AUG         50         6          0
H   KATRINA    23-30 AUG        175      1200      80000
TS  LEE        28 AUG - 1 SEP    40         0          0
H   MARIA       1-10 SEP        115         0          0
H   NATE        5-10 SEP         90         0          0
H   OPHELIA     6-17 SEP         85         1       1600
H   PHILIPPE   17-24 SEP         80         0          0
H   RITA       18-26 SEP        175         6       9400
TD  NINETEEN   30 SEP - 2 OCT    30         0          0
H   STAN        1-5  OCT         80       100          0
TS  TAMMY       5-6  OCT         50         0      MINOR
STD TWENTY-TWO  8-10 OCT         35         0          0
H   VINCE       9-11 OCT         75         0          0
H   WILMA      15-25 OCT        175        22      14400
TS  ALPHA      22-24 OCT         50        20          0
H   BETA       26-31 OCT        115         0          0
TS  GAMMA      13-20 NOV         55        37          0
TS  DELTA      22-28 NOV         70         0          0
TS  EPSILON    29 NOV - ?? DEC   70         0          0
--------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/AVILA/FRANKLIN/KNABB/PASCH
 
  
$$

Didn't you know all those Indian smoke signals contributed to global warming back then? ;)

Actually, there is indeed global warming. But it isn't caused by humanity and it's quite natural. And it's happening on Mars too. The real cause is increasing output by the sun. People tend to forget that we're still coming out of the last Ice Age. The sun's output increases and decreases in cycles which last thousands of years, leading to increases and decreases in the Earth's average temperature. This is something I was taught in grade school. But today's socialist, leftist pseudo-scientists focus strictly on the change in temperatures over the past few decades only, and draw a completely flawed conclusion which is in line with their flawed thinking and ideology. They concentrate on a single tree and fail to see the entire forest.

In addition to the sun's cycles, there are also cycles of increased hurricane activity. We're in such a cycle right now, which actually began a decade ago. But the average leftist only looks back as far as the year 2000, and seeks to explain everything based on the Bush presidency.

So it looks like there may have been fifteen hurricanes this season (Epsilon included), if Cindy is indeed upgraded, and four Category Fives, if Emily is upgraded as well.

Interestingly, the numbers show that despite all the media hoopla over what Katrina supposedly did to NOLA, Wilma was more powerful when she hit Florida than either Katrina or Rita when they hit Louisiana. Katrina's and Rita's winds on landfall were 125 and 120 respectively, and both were weakening and moving slowly. Wilma, on the other hand, was intensifying and accelerating when she made landfall with 125 mph winds. IMO, Wilma was trying to get back up to Cat 5 again, but Florida got in her way.

As far as I'm concerned, what happened in NOLA is not directly attributable to Katrina. Katrina had little effect on NOLA when she made landfall. Indeed, the media exulted for 24 hours after landfall that NOLA had dodged a bullet and survived. The true devastation caused by Katrina on landfall occured on the Mississippi coast, because Cat 3 Katrina was still pushing a Cat 5 storm surge. NOLA started flooding the day after landfall, and blame for that should be ascribed to Democrat corruption and incompetence regarding the levies, not to Katrina.

Of course, after the flooding started, the media created the myth of Katrina/NOLA... but if the levies had been properly maintained and had held, NOLA would have gotten off quite easy. Indeed, Cancun was hit much harder by Wilma than NOLA was by Katrina, pummeled for two whole days by 140 mph winds and five feet of rain. But thanks to the media's distortion, many people have the mistaken impression that Wilma plays second fiddle to Katrina in terms of overall strength. Not so. Katrina beats Wilma in terms of storm surge, but in nothing else.

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13
Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 02, 2005

 
despite moving over slightly cooler water since this time yesterday
...Epsilon has continued to become better organized with a solid
convective band now wrapping completely around the cyclone center
...Which has produced a well-defined 25 nmi diameter eye. The
upper-level outflow pattern has also continued to improve...
especially to the north and east. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates are t4.0/65 from TAFB and SAB... and a 01/0920z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU presssure estimate was 986 mb.. and 01/0920z
intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS was 985 mb/66 kt. Based on this
information... Epsilon has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. This
is not unprecedented for a hurricane to form this late in the
season or over this part of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Noel in
November 2001 formed near 38n 50w...about 250 nmi north of Epsilon.

 
The initial motion is 045/12 kt. Satellite fix positions from all
three agencies have been coming in on the previous forecast track
...So little change has been made. NHC model guidance has continued
to become more convergent on a northeastward motion for the next 72
hours. Afterwards... however... the models diverge significantly on
how they handle Epsilon as an extratropical low. The GFDL and GFDN
take Epsilon more northward... whereas the GFS... UKMET... and
NOGAPS models take the cyclone more eastward and southward by 120
hours due to complex interaction and/or merger with another
extratropical low that is forecast to develop over the Azores. The
official forecast is similar to the previous forecast track and
remains a little north of and slower than the NHC model consensus.

 
Ship dedm located about 160 nmi east of Epsilon at 12z reported a
SST of 24c/75f... which indicates that Epsilon has been moving
along a narrow ridge of warmer SSTs. This likely explains to a
large degree why Epsilon has been able to improve its convective
organization this morning. However... buoys northeast of the
cyclone indicate SSTs below 70f are less than 200 nmi away. As
such... Epsilon should begin to steadily weaken within the next
12-18 hours and probably become extratropical by 36 hours.

 
Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      02/1500z 33.7n  48.2w    65 kt
 12hr VT     03/0000z 34.6n  46.9w    60 kt
 24hr VT     03/1200z 35.8n  45.0w    55 kt...becoming extratropical
 36hr VT     04/0000z 37.0n  43.0w    50 kt...extratropical
 48hr VT     04/1200z 38.3n  40.7w    45 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     05/1200z 40.8n  36.2w    45 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     06/1200z 43.0n  32.0w    40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     07/1200z 44.5n  29.0w    40 kt...extratropical

$$

Looks like someone forgot to tell Epsilon that hurricane season is over:

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 02, 2005

...Epsilon becomes yet another hurricane in the record breaking
   2005 Atlantic hurricane season...

 
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 33.7 north... longitude 48.2 west or about 1220
miles...1965 km... west of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today... but gradual 
weakening is forecast to begin later tonight or on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to   15 miles...  28 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  987 mb...29.15 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.7 N... 48.2 W.  Movement
toward...northeast near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
$$

;-)

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on November 30, 2005

 
while the depth of the central convection has decreased and cloud
tops have warmed... the overall inner and outer convective patterns
have increased significantly...including the development of a
ragged 30 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are 45 kt... and 35 kt from AFWA... respectively. The lower
intensity estimates are mainly due to the warm cloud tops that are
not allowing for solid banding features according to the Dvorak
rules... which is typical for shallow tropical cyclones like
Epsilon. However... a 30/1008z UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 991 mb...
the improved convective structure... and the eye feature are the
basis for increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt.

 
The motion estimate is 180/06. The models have all indicated that
Epsilon would move west and then north before turning northeastward
...But the cyclone has instead moved southwest and now southward.
It appears that the strong wraparound surface to mid-level ridge to
the north and west of Epsilon should force the cyclone to make a
small clockwise loop before eventually turning northeastward by 36
hours. The models are still in good agreement on the steering flow
becoming westerly ahead of a deep layer trough that is forecast to
move off the U.S. East Coast by 48 hours. The official track has
been shifted southward or to the right of the previous track to
account for the more southerly initial position... and is a little
north of the NHC model consensus. However... if Epsilon keeps
moving southward... subsequent forecast tracks may have to be
shifted more to the south... which could result in Epsilon passing
much closer to the Azores Islands in 120 hours and beyond.

 
The southward motion has resulted in Epsilon moving over warmer
water... as indicated by nearby buoy reports of 76-77f SSTs. Cirrus
cloud motions also indicate a well-defined upper-level anticyclone
has developed over the center. Just a modest increase in convection
is needed to make Epsilon a hurricane. The cyclone is expected to
be over the warmest water and in the lowest shear conditions for
the next 6 to 12 hours... after which increasing westerly vertical
shear and decreasing SSTs should induce slow but steady weakening.
However... Epsilon is forecast remain a significant extratropical
low pressure system due to increasing baroclinic effects.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      30/2100z 29.8n  54.2w    60 kt
 12hr VT     01/0600z 30.5n  54.1w    60 kt
 24hr VT     01/1800z 31.1n  53.5w    55 kt
 36hr VT     02/0600z 32.1n  51.8w    55 kt
 48hr VT     02/1800z 33.2n  50.0w    50 kt...becoming extratropical
 72hr VT     03/1800z 35.0n  46.0w    50 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     04/1800z 37.0n  41.0w    45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     05/1800z 39.0n  36.0w    40 kt...extratropical

$$

Epsilon might reach hurricane status after all:

Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on November 30, 2005

...Epsilon continues to strengthen over the central Atlantic...

 
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.8 north... longitude 54.2 west or about
650 miles...1045 km... east-southeast of Bermuda and about 1650
miles...2660 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is making a small loop toward the south near  7 mph...
11 km/hr. Some erratic motion is possible tonight... but a turn
toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur on Thursday. On
the forecast track... Epsilon is expected to remain well to the
east of Bermuda.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early
Thursday... and Epsilon could briefly become a hurricane before
gradual weakening begins by late Thursday or on Friday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
...350 km from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  990 mb...29.23 inches.

 
Although Epsilon is not expected to directly affect Bermuda... 
large ocean swells that are being generated well to the northwest 
of Epsilon will move southwestward and continue to produce heavy
surf and rough wave conditions around the island during the next
couple of days.

 
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...29.8 N... 54.2 W.  Movement
toward...south near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 11 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
$$

And Zeta may be waiting in the wings:

If TS Zeta shows up, what do we call it?

I agree. If anything, NHC has shown they're quite conservative in declaring tropical storms.

The last two storms are notable because they began as non-tropical storms. They never formed from tropical depressions. They eventually developed tropical characteristics, and as soon as they did, they were named because they already had winds in excess of 39 mph.

Looks like my prediction panned out:

---

But the way this season has been, I won't be surprised if Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon are down the pike.

75 posted on 10/30/2005 11:44:27 AM PST by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

---

However, I will not be responsible if TS Zeta, Eta, and Theta show up. ;)