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TROPICAL STORM EPSILON
noaa ^

Posted on 11/29/2005 7:16:12 AM PST by SoFloFreeper

Storm #28 forms: Epsilon



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: epsilon; nhc; tropicalstorm; tropics; tsepsilon
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To: backhoe; AnAmericanMother

This month's issue of Georgia Backroads has a really interesting article about the hurricane of 1898 that struck coastal Georgia. Pictures of the damage to downtown Brunswick, among other things.

Thought you might want to check it out if you could find one.


81 posted on 11/30/2005 2:46:34 AM PST by Amelia
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To: Amelia
This month's issue of Georgia Backroads has a really interesting article about the hurricane of 1898 that struck coastal Georgia. Pictures of the damage to downtown Brunswick, among other things. Thought you might want to check it out if you could find one.

Thanks- this is a print publication? If so, I'll have to look for it.

The house we're in survived what locals called "The Great Hurricane." A building I used to rent at 1329 Newcastle Street had watermarks in the bricks at about eye level, where the waters had risen during that storm.

82 posted on 11/30/2005 3:03:56 AM PST by backhoe (The Silence of the Tom's ( Tired Old Media... ))
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To: steveegg

Unbelievable year. Saved you from shoveling, though!


83 posted on 11/30/2005 3:43:40 AM PST by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: Amelia
I'll bet mom 'n' dad have a copy, but I'll check with them.

The accounts in John Legare's diary are pretty scary!

84 posted on 11/30/2005 5:29:12 AM PST by AnAmericanMother (. . . Ministrix of ye Chace (recess appointment), TTGC Ladies' Auxiliary . . .)
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To: laz
Don't even look like a tropical storm.
I think hurricane center is promoting this as a storm to cook the number storms up so they can say it's global warming. < haha >
85 posted on 11/30/2005 8:04:29 AM PST by chemicalman (Many have skeletons in their closets. In New Orleans, we have skeletons in our attics.)
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To: SE Mom

No; it didn't. The snow fell Friday night, and the rains didn't start until Sunday.


86 posted on 11/30/2005 8:24:08 AM PST by steveegg (Take two - throw those long knives at the DemonRATs and lieberals - and include the RINOs)
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To: chemicalman
Don't even look like a tropical storm.
I think hurricane center is promoting this as a storm to cook the number storms up so they can say it's global warming. < haha >

Ring-a-ding-ding (or at least it would have been yesterday - TS Edwards is starting to look like a tropical storm on the satellites this morning).

87 posted on 11/30/2005 8:26:56 AM PST by steveegg (Take two - throw those long knives at the DemonRATs and lieberals - and include the RINOs)
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To: backhoe
this is a print publication?

Georgia Backroads is a magazine. Occasionally I've seen it for sale at, say, Books-a-Million.

The article says that downtown Brunswick was under 16 feet of water after the storm, but the pictures show only 4-5 feet, it appears.

Excerpts of letters written at the time tell a terrifying tale.

88 posted on 11/30/2005 3:00:57 PM PST by Amelia
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To: All
Epsilon might reach hurricane status after all:

Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on November 30, 2005

...Epsilon continues to strengthen over the central Atlantic...

 
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.8 north... longitude 54.2 west or about
650 miles...1045 km... east-southeast of Bermuda and about 1650
miles...2660 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is making a small loop toward the south near  7 mph...
11 km/hr. Some erratic motion is possible tonight... but a turn
toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur on Thursday. On
the forecast track... Epsilon is expected to remain well to the
east of Bermuda.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early
Thursday... and Epsilon could briefly become a hurricane before
gradual weakening begins by late Thursday or on Friday.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
...350 km from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  990 mb...29.23 inches.

 
Although Epsilon is not expected to directly affect Bermuda... 
large ocean swells that are being generated well to the northwest 
of Epsilon will move southwestward and continue to produce heavy
surf and rough wave conditions around the island during the next
couple of days.

 
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...29.8 N... 54.2 W.  Movement
toward...south near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 11 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 

 
$$

89 posted on 11/30/2005 3:29:15 PM PST by laz (France, la chaussure est sur l'autre pied, non?)
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To: laz
Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on November 30, 2005

 
while the depth of the central convection has decreased and cloud
tops have warmed... the overall inner and outer convective patterns
have increased significantly...including the development of a
ragged 30 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are 45 kt... and 35 kt from AFWA... respectively. The lower
intensity estimates are mainly due to the warm cloud tops that are
not allowing for solid banding features according to the Dvorak
rules... which is typical for shallow tropical cyclones like
Epsilon. However... a 30/1008z UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 991 mb...
the improved convective structure... and the eye feature are the
basis for increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt.

 
The motion estimate is 180/06. The models have all indicated that
Epsilon would move west and then north before turning northeastward
...But the cyclone has instead moved southwest and now southward.
It appears that the strong wraparound surface to mid-level ridge to
the north and west of Epsilon should force the cyclone to make a
small clockwise loop before eventually turning northeastward by 36
hours. The models are still in good agreement on the steering flow
becoming westerly ahead of a deep layer trough that is forecast to
move off the U.S. East Coast by 48 hours. The official track has
been shifted southward or to the right of the previous track to
account for the more southerly initial position... and is a little
north of the NHC model consensus. However... if Epsilon keeps
moving southward... subsequent forecast tracks may have to be
shifted more to the south... which could result in Epsilon passing
much closer to the Azores Islands in 120 hours and beyond.

 
The southward motion has resulted in Epsilon moving over warmer
water... as indicated by nearby buoy reports of 76-77f SSTs. Cirrus
cloud motions also indicate a well-defined upper-level anticyclone
has developed over the center. Just a modest increase in convection
is needed to make Epsilon a hurricane. The cyclone is expected to
be over the warmest water and in the lowest shear conditions for
the next 6 to 12 hours... after which increasing westerly vertical
shear and decreasing SSTs should induce slow but steady weakening.
However... Epsilon is forecast remain a significant extratropical
low pressure system due to increasing baroclinic effects.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      30/2100z 29.8n  54.2w    60 kt
 12hr VT     01/0600z 30.5n  54.1w    60 kt
 24hr VT     01/1800z 31.1n  53.5w    55 kt
 36hr VT     02/0600z 32.1n  51.8w    55 kt
 48hr VT     02/1800z 33.2n  50.0w    50 kt...becoming extratropical
 72hr VT     03/1800z 35.0n  46.0w    50 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     04/1800z 37.0n  41.0w    45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     05/1800z 39.0n  36.0w    40 kt...extratropical

$$

90 posted on 11/30/2005 3:31:44 PM PST by laz (France, la chaussure est sur l'autre pied, non?)
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To: Amelia

Appreciate the link- the old Yellow Frog was relocated to Judge Ringel's old building downtown in 1983, and the walls still bore watermarks- at eye level. It's still a lot of water!


91 posted on 11/30/2005 3:53:40 PM PST by backhoe
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To: NautiNurse; steveegg

;-)

92 posted on 11/30/2005 8:53:22 PM PST by laz (France, la chaussure est sur l'autre pied, non?)
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To: SoFloFreeper; aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; alnick; Amelia; asp1; ...
Epsilon becomes record 14th hurricane of Atlantic season
Associated Press

Epsilon strengthened into a record 14th hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean on Friday - two days after the 2005 season officially ended. Forecasters said it posed no threat to land.

Epsilon had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at 10 a.m. EST, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It continued to turn away from Bermuda, but it could still cause dangerous surf conditions, forecasters said.

It was centered about 955 miles east of Bermuda. Forecasters said Epsilon was moving northeast near 14 mph.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts six months and officially ended Wednesday.

93 posted on 12/02/2005 7:03:29 AM PST by NautiNurse (The greatest crime since World War II has been U.S. foreign policy - Ramsey Clark)
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To: NautiNurse; steveegg
Looks like someone forgot to tell Epsilon that hurricane season is over:

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 02, 2005

...Epsilon becomes yet another hurricane in the record breaking
   2005 Atlantic hurricane season...

 
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 33.7 north... longitude 48.2 west or about 1220
miles...1965 km... west of the Azores.

 
Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today... but gradual 
weakening is forecast to begin later tonight or on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to   15 miles...  28 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  987 mb...29.15 inches.

 
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.7 N... 48.2 W.  Movement
toward...northeast near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 

 
$$

94 posted on 12/02/2005 7:04:36 AM PST by laz (France, la chaussure est sur l'autre pied, non?)
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To: laz
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 10:00 am EST on December 02, 2005

 
despite moving over slightly cooler water since this time yesterday
...Epsilon has continued to become better organized with a solid
convective band now wrapping completely around the cyclone center
...Which has produced a well-defined 25 nmi diameter eye. The
upper-level outflow pattern has also continued to improve...
especially to the north and east. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates are t4.0/65 from TAFB and SAB... and a 01/0920z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU presssure estimate was 986 mb.. and 01/0920z
intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS was 985 mb/66 kt. Based on this
information... Epsilon has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. This
is not unprecedented for a hurricane to form this late in the
season or over this part of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Noel in
November 2001 formed near 38n 50w...about 250 nmi north of Epsilon.

 
The initial motion is 045/12 kt. Satellite fix positions from all
three agencies have been coming in on the previous forecast track
...So little change has been made. NHC model guidance has continued
to become more convergent on a northeastward motion for the next 72
hours. Afterwards... however... the models diverge significantly on
how they handle Epsilon as an extratropical low. The GFDL and GFDN
take Epsilon more northward... whereas the GFS... UKMET... and
NOGAPS models take the cyclone more eastward and southward by 120
hours due to complex interaction and/or merger with another
extratropical low that is forecast to develop over the Azores. The
official forecast is similar to the previous forecast track and
remains a little north of and slower than the NHC model consensus.

 
Ship dedm located about 160 nmi east of Epsilon at 12z reported a
SST of 24c/75f... which indicates that Epsilon has been moving
along a narrow ridge of warmer SSTs. This likely explains to a
large degree why Epsilon has been able to improve its convective
organization this morning. However... buoys northeast of the
cyclone indicate SSTs below 70f are less than 200 nmi away. As
such... Epsilon should begin to steadily weaken within the next
12-18 hours and probably become extratropical by 36 hours.

 
Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      02/1500z 33.7n  48.2w    65 kt
 12hr VT     03/0000z 34.6n  46.9w    60 kt
 24hr VT     03/1200z 35.8n  45.0w    55 kt...becoming extratropical
 36hr VT     04/0000z 37.0n  43.0w    50 kt...extratropical
 48hr VT     04/1200z 38.3n  40.7w    45 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     05/1200z 40.8n  36.2w    45 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     06/1200z 43.0n  32.0w    40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     07/1200z 44.5n  29.0w    40 kt...extratropical

$$

95 posted on 12/02/2005 7:05:48 AM PST by laz (France, la chaussure est sur l'autre pied, non?)
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To: laz

Edwards demanded his recount. Damn.


96 posted on 12/02/2005 7:27:39 AM PST by steveegg (Take two - throw those long knives at the DemonRATs and lieberals - and include the RINOs)
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To: NautiNurse
"The Atlantic hurricane season lasts six months and officially ended Wednesday."

Well, okay.

Go ahead and take about six months off, get yourself rested and relaxed, maybe take at trip to Florida and report to duty no later than 6-01-2006.

97 posted on 12/02/2005 8:50:03 AM PST by blam
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To: NautiNurse

I heard this on the radio while driving today...thought of you immediately! LOL:)


98 posted on 12/02/2005 5:07:55 PM PST by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: SE Mom; blam; NautiNurse; All

Would someone please put me on your ping list. I went checking to see when we are going to get some cooler weather and I was shocked.

99 posted on 12/03/2005 7:40:06 PM PST by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg
That's what we get for taunting it. It's gotten mad and now it's coming back.

I predict it'll never make it to the US.

100 posted on 12/03/2005 7:50:18 PM PST by blam
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