...Epsilon becomes yet another hurricane in the record breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season...
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.7 north... longitude 48.2 west or about 1220 miles...1965 km... west of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today... but gradual weakening is forecast to begin later tonight or on Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 28 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.7 N... 48.2 W. Movement toward...northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
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despite moving over slightly cooler water since this time yesterday ...Epsilon has continued to become better organized with a solid convective band now wrapping completely around the cyclone center ...Which has produced a well-defined 25 nmi diameter eye. The upper-level outflow pattern has also continued to improve... especially to the north and east. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are t4.0/65 from TAFB and SAB... and a 01/0920z NESDIS/CIRA AMSU presssure estimate was 986 mb.. and 01/0920z intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS was 985 mb/66 kt. Based on this information... Epsilon has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. This is not unprecedented for a hurricane to form this late in the season or over this part of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Noel in November 2001 formed near 38n 50w...about 250 nmi north of Epsilon.
The initial motion is 045/12 kt. Satellite fix positions from all three agencies have been coming in on the previous forecast track ...So little change has been made. NHC model guidance has continued to become more convergent on a northeastward motion for the next 72 hours. Afterwards... however... the models diverge significantly on how they handle Epsilon as an extratropical low. The GFDL and GFDN take Epsilon more northward... whereas the GFS... UKMET... and NOGAPS models take the cyclone more eastward and southward by 120 hours due to complex interaction and/or merger with another extratropical low that is forecast to develop over the Azores. The official forecast is similar to the previous forecast track and remains a little north of and slower than the NHC model consensus.
Ship dedm located about 160 nmi east of Epsilon at 12z reported a SST of 24c/75f... which indicates that Epsilon has been moving along a narrow ridge of warmer SSTs. This likely explains to a large degree why Epsilon has been able to improve its convective organization this morning. However... buoys northeast of the cyclone indicate SSTs below 70f are less than 200 nmi away. As such... Epsilon should begin to steadily weaken within the next 12-18 hours and probably become extratropical by 36 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/1500z 33.7n 48.2w 65 kt 12hr VT 03/0000z 34.6n 46.9w 60 kt 24hr VT 03/1200z 35.8n 45.0w 55 kt...becoming extratropical 36hr VT 04/0000z 37.0n 43.0w 50 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 04/1200z 38.3n 40.7w 45 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 05/1200z 40.8n 36.2w 45 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 06/1200z 43.0n 32.0w 40 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 07/1200z 44.5n 29.0w 40 kt...extratropical
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Edwards demanded his recount. Damn.