Posted on 11/29/2005 7:16:12 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
Storm #28 forms: Epsilon
This month's issue of Georgia Backroads has a really interesting article about the hurricane of 1898 that struck coastal Georgia. Pictures of the damage to downtown Brunswick, among other things.
Thought you might want to check it out if you could find one.
Thanks- this is a print publication? If so, I'll have to look for it.
The house we're in survived what locals called "The Great Hurricane." A building I used to rent at 1329 Newcastle Street had watermarks in the bricks at about eye level, where the waters had risen during that storm.
Unbelievable year. Saved you from shoveling, though!
The accounts in John Legare's diary are pretty scary!
No; it didn't. The snow fell Friday night, and the rains didn't start until Sunday.
Ring-a-ding-ding (or at least it would have been yesterday - TS Edwards is starting to look like a tropical storm on the satellites this morning).
Georgia Backroads is a magazine. Occasionally I've seen it for sale at, say, Books-a-Million.
The article says that downtown Brunswick was under 16 feet of water after the storm, but the pictures show only 4-5 feet, it appears.
Excerpts of letters written at the time tell a terrifying tale.
...Epsilon continues to strengthen over the central Atlantic...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 29.8 north... longitude 54.2 west or about 650 miles...1045 km... east-southeast of Bermuda and about 1650 miles...2660 km...west-southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is making a small loop toward the south near 7 mph... 11 km/hr. Some erratic motion is possible tonight... but a turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur on Thursday. On the forecast track... Epsilon is expected to remain well to the east of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early Thursday... and Epsilon could briefly become a hurricane before gradual weakening begins by late Thursday or on Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles ...350 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Although Epsilon is not expected to directly affect Bermuda... large ocean swells that are being generated well to the northwest of Epsilon will move southwestward and continue to produce heavy surf and rough wave conditions around the island during the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...29.8 N... 54.2 W. Movement toward...south near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
while the depth of the central convection has decreased and cloud tops have warmed... the overall inner and outer convective patterns have increased significantly...including the development of a ragged 30 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt... and 35 kt from AFWA... respectively. The lower intensity estimates are mainly due to the warm cloud tops that are not allowing for solid banding features according to the Dvorak rules... which is typical for shallow tropical cyclones like Epsilon. However... a 30/1008z UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 991 mb... the improved convective structure... and the eye feature are the basis for increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt.
The motion estimate is 180/06. The models have all indicated that Epsilon would move west and then north before turning northeastward ...But the cyclone has instead moved southwest and now southward. It appears that the strong wraparound surface to mid-level ridge to the north and west of Epsilon should force the cyclone to make a small clockwise loop before eventually turning northeastward by 36 hours. The models are still in good agreement on the steering flow becoming westerly ahead of a deep layer trough that is forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast by 48 hours. The official track has been shifted southward or to the right of the previous track to account for the more southerly initial position... and is a little north of the NHC model consensus. However... if Epsilon keeps moving southward... subsequent forecast tracks may have to be shifted more to the south... which could result in Epsilon passing much closer to the Azores Islands in 120 hours and beyond.
The southward motion has resulted in Epsilon moving over warmer water... as indicated by nearby buoy reports of 76-77f SSTs. Cirrus cloud motions also indicate a well-defined upper-level anticyclone has developed over the center. Just a modest increase in convection is needed to make Epsilon a hurricane. The cyclone is expected to be over the warmest water and in the lowest shear conditions for the next 6 to 12 hours... after which increasing westerly vertical shear and decreasing SSTs should induce slow but steady weakening. However... Epsilon is forecast remain a significant extratropical low pressure system due to increasing baroclinic effects.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 30/2100z 29.8n 54.2w 60 kt 12hr VT 01/0600z 30.5n 54.1w 60 kt 24hr VT 01/1800z 31.1n 53.5w 55 kt 36hr VT 02/0600z 32.1n 51.8w 55 kt 48hr VT 02/1800z 33.2n 50.0w 50 kt...becoming extratropical 72hr VT 03/1800z 35.0n 46.0w 50 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 04/1800z 37.0n 41.0w 45 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 05/1800z 39.0n 36.0w 40 kt...extratropical
$$
Appreciate the link- the old Yellow Frog was relocated to Judge Ringel's old building downtown in 1983, and the walls still bore watermarks- at eye level. It's still a lot of water!
;-)
MIAMI - Epsilon strengthened into a record 14th hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean on Friday - two days after the 2005 season officially ended. Forecasters said it posed no threat to land.
Epsilon had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at 10 a.m. EST, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It continued to turn away from Bermuda, but it could still cause dangerous surf conditions, forecasters said.
It was centered about 955 miles east of Bermuda. Forecasters said Epsilon was moving northeast near 14 mph.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts six months and officially ended Wednesday.
...Epsilon becomes yet another hurricane in the record breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season...
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.7 north... longitude 48.2 west or about 1220 miles...1965 km... west of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today... but gradual weakening is forecast to begin later tonight or on Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 28 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.7 N... 48.2 W. Movement toward...northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
despite moving over slightly cooler water since this time yesterday ...Epsilon has continued to become better organized with a solid convective band now wrapping completely around the cyclone center ...Which has produced a well-defined 25 nmi diameter eye. The upper-level outflow pattern has also continued to improve... especially to the north and east. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are t4.0/65 from TAFB and SAB... and a 01/0920z NESDIS/CIRA AMSU presssure estimate was 986 mb.. and 01/0920z intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS was 985 mb/66 kt. Based on this information... Epsilon has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. This is not unprecedented for a hurricane to form this late in the season or over this part of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Noel in November 2001 formed near 38n 50w...about 250 nmi north of Epsilon.
The initial motion is 045/12 kt. Satellite fix positions from all three agencies have been coming in on the previous forecast track ...So little change has been made. NHC model guidance has continued to become more convergent on a northeastward motion for the next 72 hours. Afterwards... however... the models diverge significantly on how they handle Epsilon as an extratropical low. The GFDL and GFDN take Epsilon more northward... whereas the GFS... UKMET... and NOGAPS models take the cyclone more eastward and southward by 120 hours due to complex interaction and/or merger with another extratropical low that is forecast to develop over the Azores. The official forecast is similar to the previous forecast track and remains a little north of and slower than the NHC model consensus.
Ship dedm located about 160 nmi east of Epsilon at 12z reported a SST of 24c/75f... which indicates that Epsilon has been moving along a narrow ridge of warmer SSTs. This likely explains to a large degree why Epsilon has been able to improve its convective organization this morning. However... buoys northeast of the cyclone indicate SSTs below 70f are less than 200 nmi away. As such... Epsilon should begin to steadily weaken within the next 12-18 hours and probably become extratropical by 36 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/1500z 33.7n 48.2w 65 kt 12hr VT 03/0000z 34.6n 46.9w 60 kt 24hr VT 03/1200z 35.8n 45.0w 55 kt...becoming extratropical 36hr VT 04/0000z 37.0n 43.0w 50 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 04/1200z 38.3n 40.7w 45 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 05/1200z 40.8n 36.2w 45 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 06/1200z 43.0n 32.0w 40 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 07/1200z 44.5n 29.0w 40 kt...extratropical
$$
Edwards demanded his recount. Damn.
Well, okay.
Go ahead and take about six months off, get yourself rested and relaxed, maybe take at trip to Florida and report to duty no later than 6-01-2006.
I heard this on the radio while driving today...thought of you immediately! LOL:)
Would someone please put me on your ping list. I went checking to see when we are going to get some cooler weather and I was shocked.
I predict it'll never make it to the US.
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