...Hurricane Epsilon refuses to weaken...future intensity uncertain...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.6 north...longitude 35.1 west or about 545 miles... 880 km...west-southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today and a turn toward the southwest is likely in a day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.6 N... 35.1 W. Movement toward...east-southeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
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satellite presentation has not changed significantly since yesterday. The amount of deep convection in the eyewall has continued to fluctuate and it is currently surrounding the large eye again. Objective T-numbers for the past 3 hours have been oscillating around 4.5 suggesting winds of 75 knots but the subjective numbers are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale or 65 knots. Initial intensity is set in between at 70 knots. Epsilon has ignored the cold SSTs as well as the strong upper-level westerlies and has maintained hurricane strength. I am am not going to speculate any more on the future intensity of Epsilon and will just follow SHIPS and GFDL which are the best guidance available. SHIPS model gradually weakens the cyclone and the GFDL keeps it as a hurricane for nearly 3 days. The official intensity forecast is then a compromise between these two models. Both of the models either weaken or dissipate Epsilon beyond 3 days and so the the official forecast.
Epsilon is moving toward east-southeast or 105 degrees at 7 knots. There has been no change in the steering currents and global models insist on developing a mid-level high to the north and a cut off low to the southeast of Epsilon. This pattern should force Epsilon on a southwesterly track in day or so. By then...Epsilon is expected to be a weakening tropical cyclone or a remnant low.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/1500z 33.6n 35.1w 70 kt 12hr VT 06/0000z 33.3n 34.0w 65 kt 24hr VT 06/1200z 32.0n 34.0w 55 kt 36hr VT 07/0000z 30.5n 35.5w 45 kt 48hr VT 07/1200z 29.0n 37.0w 30 kt 72hr VT 08/1200z 26.0n 40.0w 25 kt...remnant low 96hr VT 09/1200z 23.0n 43.0w 25 kt...remnant low 120hr VT 10/1200z 19.5n 47.0w 20 kt...remnant low
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