...Epsilon regains hurricane strength...but forecast to weaken...
at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 34.3 north...longitude 39.2 west or about 725 miles...1170 km...west-southwest of the Azores.
Epsilon is moving toward the east near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher gusts. A gradual weakening should begin later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...34.3 N... 39.2 W. Movement toward...east near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 979 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
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after a slight weakening overnight...morning satellite images indicate that Epsilon has restrengthened. The eye has become more symmetric and the ring of convection is stronger than yesterday. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.5 on the Dvorak scale and on this basis...the initial intensity is increased to 75 knots. There are no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the facts. However...I still have to make an intensity forecast and the best bet at this time is to predict weakening due to cold water ...High shear and dry air.
Epsilon is moving eastward at 10 knots...running ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough. But soon...according to the global models...the cyclone will be trapped south of a developing ridge which eventually force Epsilon southward and then southwestward. There is fairly good guidance agreement in showing this motion. Although Epsilon will encounter warmer waters once it moves toward the southwest. However...the upper level winds are expected to be highly unfavorable and Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I heard that before about Epsilon...haven't you?
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/1500z 34.3n 39.2w 75 kt 12hr VT 05/0000z 34.3n 37.2w 60 kt 24hr VT 05/1200z 34.0n 35.0w 50 kt 36hr VT 06/0000z 33.5n 33.5w 40 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 06/1200z 32.0n 33.5w 30 kt...remnant low 72hr VT 07/1200z 29.0n 36.0w 25 kt...remnant low 96hr VT 08/1200z 25.5n 39.0w 25 kt...remnant low 120hr VT 09/1200z 21.5n 44.0w 25 kt...remnant low
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