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Here is an update for those of you in the Tennessee Valley. Here is the latest high-resolution model and what it is showing for the Valley. Notice the band of potential heavy snow that pushes across from west to east. This would be due to convective nature of the system. New models start to roll in around 9 PM so I will try to post another updated thought late this evening.

***Added a comment based on a look at the new BAMS 3KM Model run see below in (*)*** Confidence is on the high side that a major snow event is ready to take place from the Panhandles of Texas to Virginia. A wide swath of 6 to 12 inches will be expected with some spots may see up to 18 inches. The heaviest is expected across the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma, northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and the mountains of Virginia/North Carolina and southeastern Kentucky. Still have questions has to how far south icing problems will be a concern. Could it make it...

This is a very complicated and difficult winter storm forecast for the Tennessee Valley and a lot can still change. Confidence is definitely increasing for a major winter storm for much of the I-40 corridor from New Mexico-Amarillo-Oklahoma City-Little Rock-Memphis-Nashville Thursday through Friday. If you are planning travel in these locations please be aware of the potential travel hazards that could greet you.

It is looking ever more likely that a major winter storm pact with snow and ice is going to take place along the I-40 corridor from New Mexico to Tennessee, through Friday. There are still some questions

A potential major winter storm with snow and ice is eying portions of the southern U.S. later this week. Question is exactly where. To help give you an idea of at least where the potential lies and the reason questions linger, I have provide a video blog post. Enjoy!

Busy weather week coming up, just like the way things have been here since the holidays. Glad things are slowing down a bit so I can provide you with the latest updates again. Well, I don’t need to tell many of you just how cold it has been since the first of the year as you, like I, have been experiencing it. But really, just how cold has it been? Since the 1st of January, more than 2,900 winter related records have been tied or broken.

Last night, the models were all in pretty good agreement with taking this storm system from north-central Texas up through western Missouri and then into Minnesota which lead me in the direction of providing you the information in the latest post. Things may be on the change again. Not a huge surprise to me, though. As I had previously mentioned until the storm system really moves into the U.S. the upper air data would not be that great and that would influence the model outputs.

It is appearing more likely that the heaviest snow, in excess of 6” and as much as 2 feet, will be falling Wednesday through Christmas Day from the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma to Wisconsin. Some cities that will be affected includes:

How Will It Impact Your Travel? Still watching the likely development of a BIG winter storm from the Southwestern US to the Heartland but details are still sketchy. To explain why I say this, I chose to provide you with another video blog post. I hope it helps clear some fuzziness up.

Still a lot of questions for the upcoming holiday week storm but things are becoming a bit clearer. However, I won't be comfortable nailing this one down until the storm moves on shore in the Pacific NW over the next day or two so the models have better initial data to use. I explain the very latest in today's video blog entry. Enjoy!

Lot going on so did a video blog post today. Wish quality was better. Will give it a try again tomorrow but hopefully it helps get the ideas across.

Are you “Dreaming of a White Christmas”? Many of us each year dream of a white Christmas but we know it is just going to be a dream unless we head to the mountains or someplace else where we know snow will be. This year, though, many of us who normally have to just hold on to a dream of a white Christmas may actually get what we dream for as a present from Mother Nature. As I hinted to last week, the weather pattern setting up for Christmas week appears generally to be cold. Specifics were up in question...

A very fast and active weather pattern will continue across the United States for the next week or more. The pattern is definitely setting up as anticipated with El Nino in charge. The southern jet stream is very active with a quick flow across the southern tier of the U.S. This is bringing several quick-moving storm systems from the Pacific Coast through the southern Rockies and into the Southeast. In addition, several surges of cold-arctic airmasses have made it south through the Plains and eastward into the Ohio Valley and portions of New England. This has already set up to...

An upper level storm system will be digging south-southeastward out of Colorado and into eastern Texas during the next 24-hours. You can see the storm system spinning on this water vapor image.

A one two punch storm system is organizing across SE New Mexico and will be tracking eastward over the next 24 hours. In addition, a second storm system will be dropping south through the Northern Plains. These two systems will be phasing, or coming together, on Wednesday and a powerful low pressure system will track from the southeast Texas coast to near Louisville, Kentucky by Wednesday evening. A sharp shot of cold air will sink rapidly southward behind this moisture rich system and likely rainfall will be changed over to accumulating snow.

Many of you from coast-to-coast experienced a wet and cool October and now the official numbers are in. Since 1895, October 2009 was the 3rd coolest October, nationally.

Halloween is upon us and many of the Little Punkins will be seeking the treasure of candy and goods Saturday evening. But will they be able to do so with just their costume and bag at hand or will they need coat/jacket and or rain gear?

A vigorous storm system moving through the center of the nation has delivered feet of snow to Colorado including the Denver metro area and is also delivering strong to severe storms across portions of SE Oklahoma/NE Texas/Western AR/Western LA. As of 2 PM CT, 3 tornado watches were in effect.

A powerful early winter season storm is spinning up across the 4-corners with a surface low across southeast Colorado. The surface system will gradually lift north-northeastward through Saturday while the upper level support will be slowly track eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. What does this mean?

Crops such as Corn, Cotton and Soybeans Affected If it has seemed like it has been raining unusually often and by quite a bit, you are right. The months during harvest time (August/September/October) are traditionally the driest of year for most locations east of the Rockies, especially across the corn and cotton belts. This season, though, has been an exception. Here is a slide show that shows how the precipitation of these months has compared to normal.