For a few glorious weeks in the spring of 2026, the foreign policy establishment believed it had witnessed the impossible. Iran, a nation whose air defenses had been systematically dismantled, whose navy had been reduced to wreckage on the floor of the Persian Gulf, whose supreme leader had been killed by an American strike, had somehow emerged from 38 days of devastating combat as the victor. That, at least, was the story the drive-by media told. European leaders repeated it with undisguised satisfaction. Democrats echoed it with barely concealed glee. Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world's...