<p>August 16, 2002 -- I INTENDED to get out of the political-prognostication business after my prediction that John McCain would be the GOP presidential nominee in 2000 made me look like an idiot. But, as Al Pacino said in "Godfather 3," every time I try to get out, they pull me back in. Indeed, it was my own idiocy in 2000 that informs this totally, maybe even absurdly, confident prediction.</p>