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New data from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion offers insight into Black voters' support heading into the 2024 presidential election. The Howard University poll shows an overwhelming majority of Black voters in the seven swing states support Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Trump. A whopping 82% of respondents told pollsters that they supported Harris compared to just 12% that backed Trump. Approximately 5% of respondents indicated they are undecided and the final 1% said they intend to vote for a candidate other than Harris or Trump. The data shows a significant difference between age groups. Approximately...

Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction. The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error. This marks the first time Harris...

I’ve been taking the under on Nikki Haley for several weeks now and I’ve been wrong every time. So I looked under the hood on the South Carolina results and what I see is a signal that Trump is weaker than he looks. Let’s start with the exit polls. Haley kept it close: independent voters made up 22 percent of the electorate and she won them 62-37. South Carolina is an open primary, so this was a case of independents showing up to vote against Trump in a meaningless contest. That’s bad news for him. Among people who thought the...

A new dementia risk score, which draws on 11 mostly modifiable risk factors, identifies people at risk—from midlife onward—of developing the disease within the next 14 years, suggests a large long term study. The UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score, or UKBDRS for short, outperformed three other widely used risk scores originally developed in Australia (ANU-ADRI), Finland (CAIDE), and the U.K. (DRS), the findings show. In all, 220,762 (average age just under 60) people from the UK Biobank study and 2,934 (average age 57) from the Whitehall II study were included in the final analysis. The researchers compiled a list of...