Nate Silver Election Model raises Trump's victory chances to 60.1%, Pennsylvania to 61%

X/Twitter ^ | 09/05/2024 | Eric Daughtery

[SeekAndFind]

Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh

🚨 BREAKING - NATE SILVER ELECTION MODEL raises Trump's victory chances to 60.1%, PENNSYLVANIA to 61%

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:

🔴 Trump: 60.1% (+20.4)

🔵 Harris: 39.7%

SWING STATES:

🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 61%

🔴 ARIZONA: Trump 73%

🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 73%

🔴 GEORGIA: Trump 65%

🔴 NEVADA: Trump 57%

🟠 MICHIGAN: EVEN

🟠 WISCONSIN: EVEN

[Fai Mao]

From Nate Silver?

Just wow!

[Nervous Tick]

>> wow!

Exactly the word I expressed when I saw the graphic.

[Fai Mao]

Nate tends to lean left and under-represent Trump voters I believe.

[unclebankster]

The Harris hype will be short-lived.

The Trump campaign will define her negatively and she won’t have the talent or communication skills to thwart it.

[Nervous Tick]

>> Nate tends to lean left

That’s my understanding (and observation) too.

[Nervous Tick]

>> The Harris hype will be short-lived.

So you don’t think “Hollywood Joy” will carry her over the line, eh? ROFL. Me neither.

[MinorityRepublican]

Act like this is 2016. We have to assume we’re behind. We can’t be complacent.

[UnwashedPeasant]

This is pre-debate while Kamala is still in hiding.

[VanShuyten]

I just heard this guy a couple of days ago and he said Camela was going to win.

[Macho MAGA Man]

(I just heard this guy a couple of days ago and he said Camela was going to win.)

I did as well. He also said Biden would win in 2020. I screwed up in 2016 predicting Hillary would win.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: This is pre-debate while Kamala is still in hiding.

You expect it to be better for Kamala post-debate?

[citizen]

I like this Twitter guy’s info - BUT I take nothing for granted.

[Macho MAGA Man]

(I screwed up in 2016 predicting Hillary would win.)

Meant he screwed up predicting Hillary would win. It’s late and my mind is slow.

[TomGuy]

On election night, IF counting in ET and CT zones seems to halt around 8:30 pm CT, [again], then we can surmise that Harris is in deep trouble and the ‘elfs of magic’ are [again] trying to manufacture enough votes to get Harris over the finish line with the 270 electoral votes.

If Harris is actually doing this poorly, then the manufacture of extra needed votes might be a mountain too high.

[nwrep]

Why the disparity?

[ifinnegan]

This is why the renewed lawfare.

I worry about the other Avenue. The one that failed last time.

[Liz]

She got no appreciable convention bounce.

She got a few points on (gag) “joy.”

She collapsed after the Bash interview.

---

God knows what she’ll pump herself up with to get through the debate.

[paudio]

IIRC, at first he wrote for Daily Kos, then NYT. However, later on he started to become more independent. Kinda. Albeit still leftist, he seems to use more of his background in statistics in his predictions. That’s why we see his models fluctuating between Trump and Harris, not just one side like many other outlets.

[libh8er]

I used to mock Nate Silver by saying he could make his favorite stool disappear by sitting on it ….but no more.