Posted on 08/30/2024 1:09:14 PM PDT by thegagline
New polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a widening margin over former President Donald Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Thursday.
It found Harris leads Trump 45% to 41%. Among registered voters, the 4 percentage-point lead was more significant than the 1-point lead Harris had over Trump in the outfit’s last poll in July. The poll had a 2% margin of error.
Over in polling guru Nate Sliver’s latest models, Harris didn’t fare as well.
“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3,” Silver wrote in the Silver Bulletin. “There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading.”
*** “The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption,” he wrote. “But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”***
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
She doesn’t have a lead. She is behind by a lot.
Trump isn’t going to be allowed back into the WH, so just get ready for a Harris Walz $h!tshow.
If polling and voting were completely honest and accurate, Trump would have a substantial lead...
But we all know how honest and accurate recent polling and voting have been, don’t we????
They keep using registered voters instead of likely voters.
Voting begins in less than two weeks in North Carolina and Pennsylvania along with a lot of states before the end of September.
Due to this, they definitely should use likely voters. I know they use likely after Labor Day. But that rule is inadequate since Election Day is no longer just one day in November.
Trump said he is ahead. But it’s close
Pennsylvania has voted Democrat all but 5 times since 1960—the exceptions were Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980 and 1984, Bush in 1988, and Trump in 2016. (Of course I believe that Biden won in 2020 only by fraud.)
Any poll of registered voters is garbage and is meant to shape opinion/make news.
State by state polls of likely voters would have more value.
I don’t really even think it is close. But the only thing that matters is election day...or week...or whatever.
If voting “was honest,” Trump would be running for his third term. [absent the Twenty Second Amendment]
She isn’t at all popular. But she may end up being declared the winner.
Kamala is running a vibrator campaign?
s
It would seem that Ralphie Ciffaretto was and still is correct about her.
So much Astroturf, lies and projection in one place.
Polling guru and Nate Silver do not belong in the same sentence.
Why do we
continue to post Psych Ops Fake polls from
Reuters
a lying Brit Socialist Rag and that
Gay Radical leftist from that Nutter Gay Left Blog .
This Push poll still had Biden ahead the Day he resigned .
Its pure BS .
But more important to the media, races must be reported as close, even when they're not, so BOTH SIDES keep buying advertising
Elections are like Christmas for media companies. And because the advertising must be PAID IN ADVANCE, throw in New Year and Valentine's Day as well.
DO NOT believe these polls. At this point they are ALL ABOUT media raking in the bucks by playing both sides, as they have been for decades.
“It found Harris leads Trump 45% to 41%.”
Bullshit. Show me the Aug 30 polls in 2016. The ones where Hillary was way ahead.
Which is reference to the second part of my comment...
Which is reference to the second part of my comment...
The Reuters Ipsos poll conducted between August 26, 2016 to September 1, 2016 among 1804 likely voters had Trump 40% and Clinton 39%. This poll seemed to be somewhat close to the final vote margin but later in the article https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us-politics/trump-catches-up-to-clinton-latest-reutersipsos-poll-finds-idUSKCN1182PS/ a “separate Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation polling project estimated Clinton was on track to win the Electoral College, by about 332 votes to 206”. So Reuters/Ipsos got the electoral count wrong at the beginning of September 2016.
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