Posted on 11/06/2018 4:50:16 AM PST by LS
Whatever happens, please do NOT be goaded into hysteria by Drudge or ANY sources (including me) saying "this is happening" or "that is happening," or above all . . .
"EXIT POLLS SHOW . . . "
Let me remind some of you newer Freepers about election day 2004.
Everything came down to OH. If George W. Bush won OH, he won the election. If Lurch (John Kerry) won it, he would win.
I was working for the Bush campaign in Dayton, OH as a "Poll flusher." Perhaps now technology has mitigated this, but at that time, teams would fan out to key polling places at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and see how many of your party in that precinct had voted already, then send out walkers or make calls to get those turned out who hadn't already voted.
It just so happened that my precinct was one of the key bellwether precincts in all of OH. However the precinct I was flushing went, so went OH, and so went the election. It's one of those that the networks use to "call" a state with only 1% of the vote in.
10:00 was normal, maybe high for Repubilcans. But I got home and saw Drudge headlines screaming about exit polls, how Bush was losing badly. Well, I hadn't seen that but who knows? Freepers were jumping out of buildings.
At 4:00 though, I found that 90% of Rs had already voted. We were told by Rove that if Rs just voted in OH, we'd win because of the voter registration advantage. I knew if, before work was even over for most people, 90% of Rs had voted we would easily hit 100% in this key precinct. The Ds couldn't win.
I posted my #s then got back to the computer and tried to calm people that in fact we'd won the election despite the exit polls. Bush won by 117,000---Trump won FL in 2016 by 113,000.
Moral of the story: DO NOT be intimidated or frightened by ANYTHING you see on the news or or Drudge. In in MT, in IN, and in AZ, we will win if Rs turn out. Indies in these states would have to break 2:1 against the R for the D to win. FL is a different story with its D-heavy registration, but over and over we've shown Rs can win that state just by turning out.
No one knows about the House. My prediction is we hold by as few as five and as many as fifteen seats. But these are individual races with really, really bad polling and it's extremely doubtful that the "news" is going to know what's going on til the votes are counted. (Remember 2016, where Trump had a very late lead in VA and NH? Many here knew that Northern VA was coming in and would change that, but no one knew a bunch of MA fraudsters were going to NH to vote!
There will be no reliable House numbers from precincts until most of them are closed, esp. in more rural areas.
As with 2016, if you watch the fake news, remember if there is a D victory, they will call it at 8:01. If the evidence suggests that Ds have won key "flip" districts like VA5, VA10, FL26, FL27, NY19, NY22 (and they need almost all of them), they will post it immediately.
My guess is if you don't know who won the House and you go to bed, the Rs probably held.
Now, as it was in 2016, this is in God's hands. Let's let Him do His work. We don't always know the twists and turns of His plans.
I just give poll worker my name and address. They check my signature and compare it with the one on file. That has been the procedure for 30+ years in my precinct.
I miss Novak...
Never Ever check Drudge, I stopped looking at his site a week ago, his over dramatic headlines are simply dumb and remind me of the nonsense by the MSM of which I count Drudge a member of now ...
My pearls broke. Can I borrow some? I have nothing to clutch.
Drudge can go suck a Lemon.
It was a “model” not raw data, and it allocated indies by 7 points to Enema. I deleted it.
I don’t think Enema wins indies by anywhere near that, but even if so, the model still projected a slight McSally win.
The dems will become comfortable in the safety they perceive and won't have time to activate the fraud machine.
Plus, the disappointment on their faces late tonight will be EPIC!
Thank you much for your work and insight, LS.
Thank you for this and all the heartening posts you’ve made about this election. Indeed, we are in God’s hands.
Hear, hear!
Larry, how well I remember that day in 2004!
Had a buddy who was a local GOP official and by lunchtime his face was white as a sheet and he looked like he was going to jump off a building.
I told him to calm down and sit tight, and for God’s sake, turn off the lies of the MSM.
Frankly, I don’t recollect the Bush years with much fondness TBH, but that day was a high point as Lurch and the the lying media went down in flames.
Man, FR was a disaster that day.
Yep. No TV here today. Camped out here and my feed on Twitter.
In my central CT town,
Turnout was 9000 in ‘16
6000 in ‘14
It was just under 5000 at 1240pm
We will have historic turnout. In CT
Of course, the cities are also historically high
this?? 
or this...? 
Rush just talked about your election analysis piece, had great respect for your work.
How cool is that?
Modified my numbers ....
Turnout was 4000 plus several hundreds of absentees
Maybe we’ll hit 7000, but nothing outlandish
As it is EVERY election!!!
Daniel 2:20-21
Blessed be the name of God forever and ever, for wisdom and power belong to Him.
He changes the times and seasons; He removes kings and establishes them.
He gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to the discerning.
So, are we taking the CT governorship? And any chance in CT-05?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.