Posted on 11/06/2018 4:50:16 AM PST by LS
Whatever happens, please do NOT be goaded into hysteria by Drudge or ANY sources (including me) saying "this is happening" or "that is happening," or above all . . .
"EXIT POLLS SHOW . . . "
Let me remind some of you newer Freepers about election day 2004.
Everything came down to OH. If George W. Bush won OH, he won the election. If Lurch (John Kerry) won it, he would win.
I was working for the Bush campaign in Dayton, OH as a "Poll flusher." Perhaps now technology has mitigated this, but at that time, teams would fan out to key polling places at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and see how many of your party in that precinct had voted already, then send out walkers or make calls to get those turned out who hadn't already voted.
It just so happened that my precinct was one of the key bellwether precincts in all of OH. However the precinct I was flushing went, so went OH, and so went the election. It's one of those that the networks use to "call" a state with only 1% of the vote in.
10:00 was normal, maybe high for Repubilcans. But I got home and saw Drudge headlines screaming about exit polls, how Bush was losing badly. Well, I hadn't seen that but who knows? Freepers were jumping out of buildings.
At 4:00 though, I found that 90% of Rs had already voted. We were told by Rove that if Rs just voted in OH, we'd win because of the voter registration advantage. I knew if, before work was even over for most people, 90% of Rs had voted we would easily hit 100% in this key precinct. The Ds couldn't win.
I posted my #s then got back to the computer and tried to calm people that in fact we'd won the election despite the exit polls. Bush won by 117,000---Trump won FL in 2016 by 113,000.
Moral of the story: DO NOT be intimidated or frightened by ANYTHING you see on the news or or Drudge. In in MT, in IN, and in AZ, we will win if Rs turn out. Indies in these states would have to break 2:1 against the R for the D to win. FL is a different story with its D-heavy registration, but over and over we've shown Rs can win that state just by turning out.
No one knows about the House. My prediction is we hold by as few as five and as many as fifteen seats. But these are individual races with really, really bad polling and it's extremely doubtful that the "news" is going to know what's going on til the votes are counted. (Remember 2016, where Trump had a very late lead in VA and NH? Many here knew that Northern VA was coming in and would change that, but no one knew a bunch of MA fraudsters were going to NH to vote!
There will be no reliable House numbers from precincts until most of them are closed, esp. in more rural areas.
As with 2016, if you watch the fake news, remember if there is a D victory, they will call it at 8:01. If the evidence suggests that Ds have won key "flip" districts like VA5, VA10, FL26, FL27, NY19, NY22 (and they need almost all of them), they will post it immediately.
My guess is if you don't know who won the House and you go to bed, the Rs probably held.
Now, as it was in 2016, this is in God's hands. Let's let Him do His work. We don't always know the twists and turns of His plans.
Nice post. I agree.
Good points.
It's my hope that Freepers don't bust your chops over your analysis if things go wrong tonight.
Keep on Freeping!
Pray.
Vote.
...and Pray some more.
Showing up is half the battle.
Turn the tube off and follow the election here. I’ll tune in to the networks early tomorrow morning when they have another “Oh s**t” moment when they realize we beat them again!
Nope.
This requires everyone to GET OUT AND VOTE.
Don’t leave anything up to faith.
VOTE.
VOTE.
VOTE.
thank you for all of your work.
I was surprised by your tweet yesterday that FL might split their votes between Scott and Gillum due to virtue signalling by white women. Seems anecdotal?
Got out to vote here in Pennsylvania with a lot of rain pouring down and a line. Lucky I got inside before it picked up.
Thank you LS!
Thank you Larry!!!
I hope you’re right. I’ve been maintaining an upbeat attitude and promoting conservative causes, but the media is a flood of negatives for the Republicans. I pray they’re all wrong.
Great post. I totally agree, Drudge has been trumpeting (in all red caps, of course) “BLOWOUT: EXIT POLLS SHOW DEM SWEEP!!
God helps those who help themselves...
Today, like every day, is God's day. We are an arrogantly sinful people who do not deserve his grace. Yet his grace and his mercy surrounds us every day. I do not need to understand why things happen the way they do today, I just need to be obedient to Gods will. I pray for the courage and steadfastness to see his will in what ever happens today. I beg God, please do not turn your face from your people this day. Amen
Thank you for your posts. One of the many reasons we are blessed here at FR.
BINGO...and bears repeating!!!
Thank God later.
Get out and vote.
Everyone.
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