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Ted Cruz Has Two Big Problems
National Review ^

Posted on 02/20/2016 10:43:13 PM PST by springwater13

72 percent.

That's the number of Republican voters in South Carolina's primary that identified as evangelical or born-again Christians, according to exit polling. That's an eye-popping, record-shattering figure: It was 65 percent in South Carolina's 2012 GOP primary, and 60 percent in 2008.

With three-quarters of the electorate identifying as evangelical, it was shaping up as a great night for Ted Cruz, who launched his campaign at Liberty University and has boasted of building a "firewall" to dominate the March 1 southern states because of their ultra-conservative, religious composition. South Carolina represented the first test of that theory.

Cruz failed. Among South Carolina's evangelical Republican voters, Trump won 33 percent, Cruz won 27 percent, and Rubio won 22 percent. And while Cruz did carry the 38 percent of "very conservative" voters in the state, it wasn't enough to finish anywhere close to Trump. Nor was it enough to beat Rubio, whom he finished roughly 1,000 votes behind.

This spells trouble for Cruz on Super Tuesday. He remains better-organized than any other candidate across the south (which should make a difference, considering both Trump and Rubio benefited from having impressive field operations in South Carolina). But there's no question Cruz's inability to carry the evangelical vote here portends poorly for him in states of similar ideological and demographic makeup.

That's a big problem for Cruz on March 1. But he faces even bigger challenges beyond then. Both Trump and Rubio performed evenly with non-evangelicals in South Carolina: Trump took 30 percent, and Rubio took 22 percent. But Cruz saw a significant drop-off, winning just 13 percent of that group. This echoes Cruz's performance in Iowa (33 percent with evangelicals, 19 percent with non-evangelicals) and New Hampshire (24 percent with evangelicals, 8 percent with non-evangelicals).

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: South Carolina; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; canadian; christianvote; cruz; election2016; florida; ineligible; iowa; jebbush; johnkasich; marcorubio; newhampshire; newyork; ohio; sc2016; southcarolina; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: Catsrus

And what in Trump’s big government history and plans makes you believe the economy will soar under him? He has a history of enriching himself, while leaving wreckage behind for his partners, which is fine if you’re Trump - not so promising for the rest of us.


101 posted on 02/21/2016 12:04:46 AM PST by dead (I've got my eye out for Carl Grimes.)
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To: A Conservative Thinker

Maybe Cruz should just start running some ads telling the voting public what he has to offer. Ever thought of that unique idea? Guess not - it seems his negative ads aren’t working.


102 posted on 02/21/2016 12:05:39 AM PST by Catsrus (I callz 'em as I seez 'em)
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To: Catsrus

The President’s job is not to win souls. The “Christians” here on FR hated on Cruz because they claimed he wanted to be the pastor of the US rather than be President, so that’s the exact opposite of what you’re saying.

I think it comes down to people really not wanting a candidate who verbalizes that their trust is in God. I think they’re uncomfortable with that - as if Christianity is supposed to be hidden in your back pocket. Makes no sense to me.

Do those “evangelicals” think James Dobson and all the other Christian leaders who supported Cruz did so because they wanted to use God for gain?


103 posted on 02/21/2016 12:05:42 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: AllAmericanGirl44

No, what’s rude is that a registered Democrat sho was a big donor to Democrats including Hillary Clinton that praised Obama for being so smart passing a trillion dollar stimulus package and supported TARP with absolutely no history of supporting conservative causes and his immigration ruse is really touchback amnesty but now there’s this conservative segment that worships a celebrity as vain as Obama but throws a tea party conservative that fought against the establishment under a bus because they want a foul mouthed blowhard. Its shocking and disheartening.


104 posted on 02/21/2016 12:05:57 AM PST by A Conservative Thinker (Ted Cruz 2016 - Trump in '04: "I probably identify more as Democrat")
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To: butterdezillion

I am afraid you are wrong butterdezillion. I actually heard the report by CNN live as it happened. They only reported that Carson said he was not travelling directly to NH from Iowa, that he was stopping off in FL to pick up some clothes and would be in NH later in the week for the debate. The report did not mention that Carson would not be campaigning in NH or SC. I do not know where you got your information but I think its a case of telephone where the information gets stretched as tie goes on. Anyway, that is what happened. I am not casting any aspirations on the Cruz campaign, only reporting what I heard at the time of the CNN story/report.


105 posted on 02/21/2016 12:06:46 AM PST by abigkahuna (How can you be at two places at once when you are nowhere at all?)
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To: DB

In CA we don’t vote until June. I’m used to it being over before the we get to vote.


106 posted on 02/21/2016 12:08:56 AM PST by Hugin ("First thing--get yourself a firearm!" Sheriff Ed Galt, Last Man St anding.)
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To: Catsrus

Are you joking? Your candidate is giving speeches at a fourth grade level and is so off topic that its a salad bowl. He campaigns on negativity for crying out loud!


107 posted on 02/21/2016 12:09:06 AM PST by A Conservative Thinker (Ted Cruz 2016 - Trump in '04: "I probably identify more as Democrat")
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To: QuinqueViae; A Conservative Thinker

EVERYONE who won South Carolina used to become the nominee, until 4 years ago when Gingrich won it.

SC appears to have changed in recent years and become much more idiosyncratic, preferring the meanest, loudest, trash-talking candidate.


108 posted on 02/21/2016 12:09:33 AM PST by JediJones (Trump 3/30/2011:"You have some great, productive [illegals] that came.You have to give them a path.")
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To: nickcarraway

“This was Thad Cochran all over again.”

Are you saying the Republican Establishment paid african-americans to vote for Trump to the tune of 10% of the entire vote?

Be serious.


109 posted on 02/21/2016 12:10:08 AM PST by map
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To: Utmost Certainty

Trump does NOT have the right position on trade. He has Bernie Sanders’ position.


110 posted on 02/21/2016 12:10:50 AM PST by JediJones (Trump 3/30/2011:"You have some great, productive [illegals] that came.You have to give them a path.")
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To: springwater13

They believe the Trump and Rove lies about Cruz being a mean fellow and a liar. That is the problem. But Rubio is already moving away from Conservatives by his response to the Breitbart article. His response was to attack the messengers, not defend against the substance of the article.

By calling Bretbart disreputable, he was calling into question the the PP tapes, too.

Rubio supports everything that Conservatives oppose and nothing that Conservative stand for. So, it looks like a brokered convention which will kill off the Republican Party. Have you seen all the articles about the end of the Constitutional era? Well, this is it.


111 posted on 02/21/2016 12:11:56 AM PST by Eva
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Comment #112 Removed by Moderator

To: abigkahuna

No, the transcript and video shows that to NOT be the case.

This is the CNN report in question:

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

Male: Ben Carson, what have we learned?

Female: That’s right, our - we should say, our Chris Moody is breaking this, this news, that Ben Carson is gonna go back to Florida to his home, regardless of how he does tonight here in Iowa. He’s gonna go there for several days, and then afterwards he’s not gonna go to South Carolina, he’s not gonna go to New Hampshire. He’s gonna come to Washington, DC, and he’s gonna do that because the National Prayer Breakfast is on Thursday. And people who have been following Ben Carsonâ€TMs career know that that’s really where he got himself on the political map, attending that prayer breakfast and really giving it to B, President Barack Obama at the time. And he became kind of a hero among uh, conservatives as well as evangelicals especially. But

M: And it’s very unusual

F: VERY unusual

M: to be announcing that you’re going home to rest for a few days, not going on to the next site. Plus, he’s already announced that he’s gonna be coming out and speaking at 9:15 local

F: Mm-hm

M: 10:15 Eastern, no matter whether or not uh, we know the results, uh, because he wants to get home and get ahead of the storm.

F: Look. If you want to be President of the United States, you don’t go to Florida. I mean, that’s just bottom line. That’s the end of the story. If you want to signal to your supporters that you want it, that you’re hungry for it, that you want them to get out and campaign, you gotta be out there doing it too, and he’s not doing it. It’s very unusual.

M: Very unusual news, that CNN has just learned, CNN’s Chris Moody breaking the story. Wolf, back to you in Washington.

Wolf Blitzer: VERY significant news indeed, guys. Thanks very much.

END OF RECORDING


113 posted on 02/21/2016 12:13:13 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: A Conservative Thinker

Your post is nonsense. Trump didn’t cast one vote in Congress which hurt any of us - did he? But, the Senators in this race - including Ted Cruz - have. I know Trump has had some liberal viewpoints in the past, but, I also understand that he has lived all his life in NYC. There you get nonstop liberal crap 24/7 - it’s a steady diet of it.

Having said that - Trump is a quick learner and has changed his viewpoints on many, many issues. According to Cruzobts - people have to believe everything all their lives and be rigid, never learning or growing as individuals. What a sad way to live!


114 posted on 02/21/2016 12:13:51 AM PST by Catsrus (I callz 'em as I seez 'em)
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To: JediJones

I reiterate. Momentum and the public’s perception of who’s winning, are two critical factors which feed off each other and tend to become self driving phenomena.

It works a little like a stampede, or an idea that swiftly takes the country by storm. It’s the ‘viral’ effect. Once started, there’s little that can stop it. Voters begin being swayed to the winner’s camp, merely because he’s winning - or because he gains the appearance of inevitability.

After Nevada, Trump will have that phenomena at his back. Coupled with his intense competitive nature, he’ll be almost impossible to beat, ground games and secret armies notwithstanding.


115 posted on 02/21/2016 12:14:31 AM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: DB

“So three small states have voted and its over, is that correct?”

Yeah it’s crazy. As the candidates drop out someone else will be getting those votes. Nobody is going to win with 20 or 30% support.


116 posted on 02/21/2016 12:15:26 AM PST by 1035rep
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To: JediJones

SC keeps re-electing Linda Graham and I still cant figure that one out.


117 posted on 02/21/2016 12:16:34 AM PST by Blue Highway
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To: Hugin

Sure they do, and most of them have pastors - they are looking for a commander-in-chief, and they also need jobs - as many, many do. This economy is on the brink, and most Christians are aware of that as well.


118 posted on 02/21/2016 12:17:32 AM PST by Catsrus (I callz 'em as I seez 'em)
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To: Blue Highway

He got 57% in the last primary. That’s more telling about what kind of Republican party they have there.


119 posted on 02/21/2016 12:18:58 AM PST by JediJones (Trump 3/30/2011:"You have some great, productive [illegals] that came.You have to give them a path.")
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To: Steelers6

4am reference bump. - Thanks.


120 posted on 02/21/2016 12:19:50 AM PST by Tunehead54 (Nothing funny here ;-)
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