I reiterate. Momentum and the public’s perception of who’s winning, are two critical factors which feed off each other and tend to become self driving phenomena.
It works a little like a stampede, or an idea that swiftly takes the country by storm. It’s the ‘viral’ effect. Once started, there’s little that can stop it. Voters begin being swayed to the winner’s camp, merely because he’s winning - or because he gains the appearance of inevitability.
After Nevada, Trump will have that phenomena at his back. Coupled with his intense competitive nature, he’ll be almost impossible to beat, ground games and secret armies notwithstanding.
Did you not pay attention to 2012? Santorum and Romney had a real race. Santorum won Iowa, lost the next 4 states, then won the next 3. The race was not wrapped up quickly for Romney. He had high negatives just like Trump.