Posted on 02/02/2016 5:56:10 AM PST by Red Steel
The first in a series of daily tracking polls leading up to the New Hampshire primary finds Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders holding huge leads among Granite State voters.
The poll, released Monday by UMass Lowell, found Trump leading the Republican race by 26 percentage points. Sanders leads among Democrats by 31 percentage points.
The poll results are consistent with other recent surveys that have found Sanders and Trump in the lead, although the UMass Lowell poll has both Trump and Sanders leading by larger margins than other recent polls.
New Hampshire will hold the nation's first primary next Tuesday, Feb. 9. The poll results are being released on a day that most political observers are focused on Iowa, where voters are holding the country's first caucuses on Monday.
New Hampshire voters tend to be heavily independent, and the poll results show that those candidates performing well are those who are generally seen as independent from establishment-as-usual politics.
On the Republican side, the businessman Trump has support from 38 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with 12 percent. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 9 percent, followed by Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7 percent.
New Hampshire Republicans are often more socially liberal than Republicans in other parts of the country, and they tend to vote for more moderate candidates. But the numbers appear to indicate that the moderate vote is split among several candidates, while conservatives have coalesced around Cruz.
The poll found that Trump's support is strongest among men and among voters with lower levels of education. Cruz leads among religious voters.
On the Democratic side, Sanders, an independent U.S. Senator from neighboring Vermont, has support from 61 percent of likely voters. Former secretary of state, U.S. Senator and first lady Hillary Clinton trails with 30 percent of the vote.
Sanders' support is incredibly strong among young Democrats. Of respondents ages 18 to 29, 89 percent preferred Sanders. Clinton polled best among older voters.
UMass Lowell and 7NEWS will be conducting daily tracking polls from Monday through Feb. 8. The results will be posted each morning on the UMass Lowell website.
The poll released Monday surveyed 1,413 voters, including 461 Republican likely voters and 442 Democratic likely voters, between Jan. 29 and Jan. 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percent for Republican likely voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for Democratic likely voters.
Polls, polls, polls, polls. Polls, polls, polls.
I have absolutely no doubt that Trump is leading in the polls in NH.
Because New York values!
Poll Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls!
Well the RCP ave had Trump up by 4 and Cruz beat Trump by 4. Wonder how far the NH polls will be off.
I have no doubt Trump will do better in a primary. Caucuses favor Cruz’s well run machine. Give him credit.
Nowhere near like Iowa. Only 7 days from now.
Hey, it is time to wake up. Polls are phony.
Credit gladly given.
Now...what will it take for the media to shut up about non-hacker Rubio?
Don’t discount machines in primary states. Obama proved this in 2012. His ad spend was much less that Romney but got the voters to the polls. My theory as to why Iowa was important to the GOP was to show who could run a ground game!
Getting really tired of the condescension shown by individuals such as yourself over this values nonsense. This may come as a surprise to you, but many of us in the NYC area are quite confortable with the core values that we live our lives within. It always amazes me the condescension shown by people who obviously think they are better or more moral than someone else.
Yes, back to polls.
Quite frankly, New Hampshire primary is so overrated..I know before the 90’s, no one won the White House without winning NH..but the last three Presidents of both parties have NOT won NH..I lost respect for them when they voted for Pat Buchanan in 96..I know Dole was no prize, but come on..Pat Buchanan???? Just give Clinton the re-election..it’s a very beautiful state, but it really needs to be ignored..imho
>> It always amazes me the condescension shown by people who obviously think they are better or more moral than someone else.
It’s not a person-to-person value judgment, it’s a region-to-region value judgment.
Such regional value judgments are perfectly valid, and have numerous examples in Scripture.
There are, and always have been, a few righteous living among many wicked, and vice versa.
NH is a more liberal state than IA. Leans toward liberal candidates, Bernie and Trump.
A Cruz victory would be a YUUUGE upset.
He can't talk to Voters going into the Voting areas.
Now the other candidates know he is a snake.
Oh, no, as we understand it NYers NEED their values in order to survive up there.. jungle rules.
Not enough time to poll NH now to gauge if Cruz’ IA MO rustles up whatever Reagan Democrats that may still exist there.
Rubio is the chosen one, you could see it in the first Fox debate. He was constantly talked about for his “performance”. Bush and Rubio were declared winners of that debate.
It does not matter that Cruz won Iowa, he will get a brief moment and then they will sell us on how great Mr. Amnesty, open borders is for us.
I will tell you this, the GOP-e is happy Trump did not win last night. Trump can not build up a 4 state sweep to put this nomination to rest early. And to the GOP-e that is what they wanted.
GOP-e was the biggest winner last night
If you are here on FR, I assume you are probably a conservative. But NYC is clearly not a conservative area, and you, my friend, are in the minority.
I am a conservative, even though I live in the Boston area. There are a lot of conservatives here. Yet I am never offended when people justifiably talk about the overwhelmingly commie values of Massachusetts, because they are correct. Massachusetts has a horribly leftist progressive population, and there's no point in denying it.
New York City elected a famously commie mayor, didn't they? The mayor before that was an authoritarian leftist.
The governor of New York has publicly told conservatives to leave the state!
When conservatives criticize New York values, it's very clear what they mean, and that NYC deserves the criticism.
Acknowledging that doesn't make you a bad person. But denying that criticism does call one's powers of observation one's grasp on reality into question.
Ha! you should trying living in the South. This is Hypocrisy central! I never understood the meaning of “holier than thou” til I moved here.
To: usafa92
Northeast people leave your area, they come to Texas to get away from taxes, values, etc. of the northeast. They are so “smart” they come here and want to “change” us to their NE values. Everyone knows that Texans are bumpkins and we need to wise up and change Texas so that NE-ers get their way. New Yorkers wear their “I (heart) NY” Tee Shirts. They should be embarrassed they were ever in NY. I am getting tired of the condescension from norteastern folks, too.
If “Baggage Carrying Ted” can overcome a 26 point lead with Senior Amnesty fighting him from very close below and Trump fighting him from way above, it would be the miracle of the cycle. Plus because the Democrat side is serious there will be no Democrats meddling in the Republican primary. Any Democrat willing to go out and vote won’t throw away his vote on a dirty trick. Their race is much too close.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.