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Carson Still Leads, Cruz Moves into Striking Distance in New ...(Monmouth Poll Iowa)
KBUR ^ | 11/2/15 | Staff

Posted on 11/02/2015 7:15:02 AM PST by VinL

In the first Iowa poll results since the third Republican debate, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are still running first and second while Ted Cruz has broken ahead of the remaining pack to third place and within striking distance of Trump, according to a poll conducted by KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA and Monmouth College (IL).

Carson leads among likely Iowa caucus-goers at 28% followed by Trump at 20%. Cruz is in third place at 15% while Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and nearly tied at 10% and 9% respectively.

“Ted Cruz is the only candidate who has improved his standing since the debate, doubling his percentage since the first KBUR-Monmouth College poll in June and about 5 points better than the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average and 6 points higher than the Huffington Post trend,” said Robin Johnson, who hosts the “Talking Politics” radio show on KBUR and teaches part time at Monmouth College. “Republican voters seem to be sorting the race down to five candidates as we move closer to caucus day on February.”

Among the rest of the field, Carly Fiorina is in sixth place at 4%, followed by Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Bobby Jindal at 2%. Rick Santorum and John Kasich are at 1% and the other candidates (Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, and Lindsay Graham) are all under .5%. Four percent of voters were undecided.

Other key takeaways (snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at kbur.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Florida; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; california; carlyfiorina; carson; cruz; election2016; elections; florida; iowa; jebbush; marcorubio; newyork; polls; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: SeaHawkFan

“Cruz would make mincemeat of Hillary in the debates.”

That doesn’t matter unless her supporters see that she was made mincemeat of.


61 posted on 11/02/2015 9:26:39 AM PST by cymbeline
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To: VinL

“Cruz Moves into Striking Distance”

Bingo!

Cruz is that natural home for conservatives of all stripes.

Only the R.I.N.O.s truly hate him.


62 posted on 11/02/2015 9:44:36 AM PST by Uncle Miltie ("The bipartisan project is to destroy conservatism" .. "Cruz is a thoroughbred conservative." - Rush)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Over here, Sir!

Your good early work is paying off.....


63 posted on 11/02/2015 9:45:49 AM PST by Uncle Miltie ("The bipartisan project is to destroy conservatism" .. "Cruz is a thoroughbred conservative." - Rush)
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To: D-fendr

And how do you define conservative? Conservative seems to be a very flexible term, so exactly what do you mean? Do you believe conservativism is classic liberalism, a belief in natural law? And where exactly does Donald Trump fall short when you put the policies he advocates in that context? There is some wiggle room in the details you know, you can be a believer in natural law, and differ a little on some issues, and still be a “conservative!” Certainly our founding fathers had differences while agreeing to, and adhering to basic principles of natural law. Trump, who is the elder statesmen in all of this, the one who has led a successful private life, certainly has articulated a belief system consistent with the tenants of natural law.


64 posted on 11/02/2015 9:48:12 AM PST by erkelly
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To: Vigilanteman

This is about momentum. Cruz has laid all sorts of groundwork. Now or never, he needs the momentum. This is just about the last moment his campaign could stand to get it.

Cruz on the inside, making his move!


65 posted on 11/02/2015 9:48:14 AM PST by Uncle Miltie ("The bipartisan project is to destroy conservatism" .. "Cruz is a thoroughbred conservative." - Rush)
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To: cymbeline
Priority 1: our nominee must be able to win the election.

I understand your point, but I believe it would be a pyrrhic victory with Trump. I think he would be inept in office and it wouldn't surprise me if he turned went liberal on several issues, as he has in the past.

He wants, needs, to be popular. His history is to say and do whatever that takes.

Thanks for your reply.

66 posted on 11/02/2015 9:54:09 AM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: The_Republic_Of_Maine

In Iowa the ground game is King. Supposedly Trump has the best ground team by far. You have to go knock on the door, take the voter to the caucus location, give them a bag lunch and then drive them home.


67 posted on 11/02/2015 10:04:22 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Cruz has a ground game in Iowa that is at least the equal of Trump’s, and the Cruz supporters at the caucuses will not be mostly lost newbies. Carson’s organization is pretty good too.


68 posted on 11/02/2015 10:10:52 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: D-fendr

“The problem with your analysis and recommendation is that Trump ain’t a conservative”

Well let’s see:

Cruz has no plan to deport the milions of illegals in the USA. Cruz plants to let them stay and legalize them. Trump wants to deport all or as many as he can get his hands on in addition to sending back any muslim invaders Obama brings in.

Cruz voted for TPA. Trump was opposed to TPA

Cruz will likely vote for TPP. Trump is opposed to TPP

Cruz voted for the Corker Bill. Trump thought it was a bad idea.

The facts can be pesky things.


69 posted on 11/02/2015 10:13:37 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Vigilanteman

Be sure to sign the Green Party petition.


70 posted on 11/02/2015 10:18:35 AM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: jjotto

As much as I would like to see Trump sweep the primaries it could be that Carson might win it. Santorum and Huck both flawed candidates won the Iowa Caucus and never became the nominee. I still think Trump may pull it out.


71 posted on 11/02/2015 10:20:29 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: fatnotlazy

Agreed that we need a unified front. But if you look at the crowds, at the support for Trump, it’s obvious he pulls in most voters.

Then, if you look at ALL other candidates, their events are sparse by comparison. Those numbers aren’t going to explode if Trump drops out. That is why the GOPe can manipulate if they eliminate Trump. There’s enough room between candidates to fudge numbers or falsely report poll swings.

They can’t do it with Trump because it’s obvious, he’s not dropped.


72 posted on 11/02/2015 10:20:42 AM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: VinL

And another poll out today in New Hampshire shows the Donald leading by 10 points. This race is far from settled.


73 posted on 11/02/2015 10:24:43 AM PST by No Dems 2016
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Oh sure, absolutely Trump can win Iowa. A few months away is a long time in politics, but looking from today, the winner is going to have to work for it. Also, finishing second or third is not necessarily a failure, depending on expectations.


74 posted on 11/02/2015 10:25:23 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: SamAdams76

I bet Trump uses his helicopters to go to large number of Iowa counties in the run up to the Iowa Caucus. You could honestly write Trump ‘flying rings around’ his rivals for the win.


75 posted on 11/02/2015 10:55:16 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Trump will walk away with Iowa. Monmouth is not counting new caucus goers and they have a liberal bias. And we know Trump is going to attract new caucus goers like no one else in Iowa history. So many of those thousands of voters we see at Trump Iowa rallies are not being counted on purpose. You can bank on it that Trump wins Iowa.


76 posted on 11/02/2015 11:04:59 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Kenny
Now it's my turn to request that I not be flamed.

Please understand that I like Trump in many respects, particularly his no-nonsense style and lack of PC sensibilities. He has thumbed his nose at both the Republican establishment and at Dems in general with great success. Anyone that can pizz them and the suck-up media off is OK by me.

But I still have that nagging feeling that he's not really serious about the presidency. Irrational? Maybe and no, I don't have any hard evidence that he's going to fold his tent and go home. But the feeling is still there. Trump is a master showman, and while that has worked to his advantage, it also makes me wonder about his true intentions. Is this a show or is he really serious?

I will say this: If Trump does stick around and the other candidates drop out, I could live with voting for Trump. We could do a lot worse (and we have). Just don't ask me to vote for Yeb, Rubio, Kasich or any of the other potential Republican losers. No how, no way.

77 posted on 11/02/2015 11:06:56 AM PST by fatnotlazy
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To: traderrob6

Can’t it would be called all kinds of names and get me put against a wall and shot by RINOs.


78 posted on 11/02/2015 11:15:24 AM PST by The_Republic_Of_Maine (politicians beware, a terminally ill US Marine is the most dangerous thing on earth.)
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To: fatnotlazy
Just don't ask me to vote for Yeb, Rubio, Kasich or any of the other potential Republican losers. No how, no way.

Never!

79 posted on 11/02/2015 11:58:08 AM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: fatnotlazy

I completely agree, it’s good to see Cruz in double digits.


80 posted on 11/02/2015 11:59:38 AM PST by erod (Chicago Conservative | Cruz or Lose!)
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