Posted on 11/02/2015 7:15:02 AM PST by VinL
In the first Iowa poll results since the third Republican debate, Ben Carson and Donald Trump are still running first and second while Ted Cruz has broken ahead of the remaining pack to third place and within striking distance of Trump, according to a poll conducted by KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA and Monmouth College (IL).
Carson leads among likely Iowa caucus-goers at 28% followed by Trump at 20%. Cruz is in third place at 15% while Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and nearly tied at 10% and 9% respectively.
“Ted Cruz is the only candidate who has improved his standing since the debate, doubling his percentage since the first KBUR-Monmouth College poll in June and about 5 points better than the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average and 6 points higher than the Huffington Post trend,†said Robin Johnson, who hosts the “Talking Politics†radio show on KBUR and teaches part time at Monmouth College. “Republican voters seem to be sorting the race down to five candidates as we move closer to caucus day on February.â€
Among the rest of the field, Carly Fiorina is in sixth place at 4%, followed by Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Bobby Jindal at 2%. Rick Santorum and John Kasich are at 1% and the other candidates (Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, and Lindsay Graham) are all under .5%. Four percent of voters were undecided.
Other key takeaways (snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at kbur.com ...
They went for the Duke! Iowa is the kiss of death!
W in 2004. Before that Reagan in1984.
At some point, Iowa polls are going to have to reflect the reality that Cruz and Trump have strong Iowa ground games, as does Carson, although Carson’s doesn’t match the Cruz and Trump organizations.
Rubio, Bush, et al., are pretty much too late to the game, or are uninteresting to most activists, to get many Iowa insiders.
I see this sentiment expressed on the forum either directly or indirectly. Here's how that works out.
The RNC will never get behind Cruz. Period. He doesn't stand for what they do, and they won't have any part if it.
If Trump is dismissed and Cruz should become the leader in the polls, he will crash and burn during the primary process.
Anyone but Cruz will be nominated.
Folks have learned nothing from 32 years of them not being able to nominate a true Conservative. Not since 1984 have we done it, and even then it was because it was Reagan's second term. The question becomes, why haven't we?
These are the people who vote in all to many of our primaries.
1. Democrats
2. Independents
3. Moderate Republicans
4. Conservative Republicans
Conservatives are merely a slice of the Republican pie. As such they have three groups voting against them to select their nominee. Please recall that Moderate Republicans think the Tea Party members are terrorists. Remember that? John McCain has said it. So did McConnell and Boehner.
Fine. Dump Trump. See what you wind up with.
It will be Carson, Rubio, or Fiorina. Once again we will have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
We have a guy out there selling every platform plank of Ronald Reagan. He's drawing tens of thousands of people to our cause. He'll pulling in people across every demographic line. Despite this some folks hope he'll fail.
If he does, so do we and our nation.
This guy is your last chance. He's our last chance.
He draws across demographic lines. Cruz will never draw across demographic lines. He doesn't have the charisma.
Cruz is good, but he'll never be the nominee.
Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Rubio..., they're essentially the same person.
Watch what happens when you go into the primaries without Trump. In 2016 I had hoped I'd have someone to vote for...
Without Trump, that's not happening.
We’re going to do better in Iowa than we do nationwide this year. If it’s close, we pick up Iowa. Middle-class White people are abandoning the Democratic Party in droves. Wisconsin same direction of drift, but less.
Bad news is Virginia has been drifting in the opposite direction.
The problem with your analysis and recommendation is that Trump ain’t a conservative.
wonder how Cruz Carson poll against hitllery
The latest match up I could find had Hellary up by 6.8 vs Cruz
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_cruz_vs_clinton-4235.html#polls
Just Google Clinton vs Carson Iowa and you should be able to get the Carson/Clinton match up(s), as well.
Trump up, over Hellary by 2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html
Cruz would make mincemat of Hillary in the debates.
After he would be done, even Chelsea wouldn’t vote for her own mom.
Exactly. Do you Remember those wild polls that showed Cruz and Fiorina almost even with Trump? I believe only one showed Cruz there, but a couple showed Fiorina there.
This Carson phenomenon is the same nonsense IMO.
If Carson’s numbers are real, we’re in serious trouble. It means another Leftist Republican will get the nomination.
If that happens, I pity the nation.
The problem with your analysis and recommendation is that Trump ain’t a conservative.
The boss and The Great One (Levin) disagree with you, then.
Levin reviewed most of Trump’s plans/policies and asked “How can ANYONE not call these conservative?”
JimRob....(before Trump’s great VA policy was published)....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3324042/posts?page=93#93
Donald Trump is beginning to sound more and more like a real Republican everyday (as compared to today’s run of the mill mealy-mouthed RINO statists who are passing themselves off as Republicans).
Secure the borders. Get a handle on immigration. Cut the regulations. Cut the spending. Cut the government. Cut the taxes. Make the government smarter. Get a handle on the debt. Strengthen the economy. Bring capital and jobs back to America. Strengthen our military. Make America great again! And make the world respect us again while we’re at it.
Ok, I’m going to get flamed for this but I don’t think Cruz can win under any circumstances. He’s not really very likable and the voters have to like their candidate.
The difference with Trump is, he’s an entertainer in addition to politician. People love to hear him. But with Cruz he has a very serious air (necessary in these serious times) but it doesn’t attract. I like his views (except Cardin vote) but the election has been turned into a beauty contest like it or not and the girl playing the piano doesn’t stand a chance next to the belly dancer.
IMHO
From your lips to God's ears.
Carson has been consistently leading in Iowa in multiple polls, though I do realize that only polls showing Hillary’s dear friend Donald winning are valid.
Cruz is my guy.
My main concern is he does not seem to be doing well in one on one match-up against Hillary in the RCP average polls.
See here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Strangely, it is Ben Carson who does the best against Hillary.
No flaming from me. Seems we all have our own candidate. Would be wonderful if we could unite behind one candidate now to ensure that the liberal Republican hierarchy does not force another loser candidate down our throats, but that doesn’t look likely. I really believe that now is the time for a unified front, rather than waiting till next year. Next year might he too late.
Okay ace. Then neither was Reagan.
Trump is selling the Reagan platform planks the public in ways it hasn’t been since Reagan.
If you put your ego aside for a moment and study up on what Trump is hawking to the public and placing in his platform, you’d have nothing to complain about.
A few Marxist Media paid for polls, many of them 4 to 11 months old.
The first question I have is why believe what Trump says today?
Last month he was for universal government-paid-for healthcare. He’s a 100% supporter of Kelo. He said Obama had a good fundamental understanding of the economy and picked a good team. He supported Hillary and Pelosi and Reid.. major contributor to Charlie Rangel...
So, number 1, the guy lacks integrity making it hard to believe anything he says; number two he’s supporting some really not-conservative positions and people. I don’t trust him to do anything but say what will sell. No telling what we’d get if he was actually elected.
Thanks for your reply.
I’ll agree with you on two points:
1 Trump is selling
2 Trump is hawking
:)
But for the life of me I cannot see anything resembling Reagan in Trump. Beginning with integrity.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.