Posted on 10/09/2015 6:52:52 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
The latest New Hampshire poll shows a far more engaged electorate continuing to be a thorn in the side of the 2015/16 GOPe scheme to anoint Jeb Bush. In addition, the ruse candidates, Fiorina and Rubio have exhausted their media-fueled surge and remain static alongside Jeb Bush at 8%.
John Kasich’s ground game and almost exclusive attention to New Hampshire has garnered him a position just above Jeb, Carly and Marco. However, the vulgarians are determined to Make America Great Again!
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,035 registered voters in New Hampshire regarding the presidential election and other areas. The poll was conducted October 5-6, 2015. The sample includes 662 Republicans, 373 Democrats, and the remainder not planning on participating in the primary, but are planning to vote in the regular elections. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.1% [3.8% for Republican Caucus/5.1% for Democratic Caucus]. (link)
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
HOORAY Trump
Thanks! Now that IS a great post!
My guess is that the 660 or so Republicans are those saying they will be particpating in the primary, of which there can be R, D’s and I’s. I believe NH I s an open primary, so that should explain the differences between those numbers and the self identifiers by party. They didn’t do a great job of explaining.
Lindsey Graham has surged 30%. Trump better look out.
The way I read it, a large percentage of those who are registered Republicans, no longer identify with the Republican Party.
No, I’m telling you that is the question that they weighted the poll with.
Yes it is an eternity but Trump certainly has weathered the worst that could be thrown at him also he’s clearly managed to consolidate his early lead and move into a new phase. Through the end of the year he is doing exactly what I’d do from a marketing standpoint. He’s contracting with non political ad agencies to sell his brand which is something he knows how to do. He’s also going to bring his family on the campaign trail with him plus he will continue to drop policy papers proving even more so his credibility.
I don’t see time as being anything but an asset for Trump. I do think that his biggest risk will be in the period of time between the first primaries and Super Tuesday because that is the time when we are likely to see donors re-evaluate their support for Jeb Bush and make a final decision on whether they will consolidate behind Rubio. I think Rand will be out of the race by then. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will determine if there is going to be a reshuffle before Super Tuesday. I don’t see how Jeb manages to keep his supporters if he doesn’t have a top 3 showing in the early primaries. Once he and Rubio lose Florida and Kasich loses Ohio they GOP-E are going to be a very bad place. That said I think if it comes down to a race between Trump and Carson they will ultimately support Carson. If Cruz can win Texas and Rubio, Bush, and Kasich don’t win their states he will have a chance to rise in their absence. Cruz needs to place in the top tier in Iowa and South Carolina before Super Tuesday to remain credible.
I think it is very likely that Trump or Carson will ultimately be the nominee if they do well in the early primaries. I think Cruz will be in a strong position with Trump to be a running mate but it will be extremely tempting for Trump to simply add Carson to his team provided Carson holds together till the end. The problem is that once the board begins to reshuffle it will be hard to determine how long a 2nd place or third place contender can manage to hold his or her support.
.... More engaged electorate....
Three words that sums it all
Not really an eternity. Trump has been leading for 4 months.
His level of support is very stable. It’s hard to think of anything that can happen between now and February that will change things.
I really enjoy that Sundance whoever he/she is. Great writing skills.
“If Jeb had Trump’s numbers the RNC would move the convention to Thanksgiving 2015.”
If they can postpone the vote for speaker to control who they get, they can also speed it up. Traitors!
Think they want us to doubt that Trump’s in it for the long haul so they can pry us away. News flash, if it turned out to be one of theirs, not many would stick around for their pick.
Does Megyn have black roots too?
GO TRUMP!!!
Its four months to February and its an eternity in politics. If Trump is still up double digits by January, we have something to talk about.
you are right but he is managing the whole show.
I happened to scroll down, and found this in the comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=133&v=YOnRJi9QJr8
It’s silly, but, shoot, this is Friday night! :-)
(No, it’s not the Boxer hair diss...)
Don’t know but i always identify as democrat because i am registered democrap. so’s i can vote against them twice. i live on pa.
WOW - best post I’ve read in a long while.
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