Posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123
Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.”
Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the polls now, mid-September didn’t win the nomination, didn’t even come close. So, if you look four years ago, Rick Perry was in the midst of a surge right now, and eight years ago on the Democratic side, you had Howard Dean — or 12 years ago, rather, Howard Dean was surging, Hillary Clinton was still way ahead of Barack Obama in 2008. Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls in 2008. I think people — there’s so much interest in this election, in this campaign, people forget that polls five months before Iowa, historically, have told you very, very little.”
-snip-
Silver added that an establishment candidate was “probably” going to be the nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Ted Cruz!
Seriously though, this guy just pulled 5% out of his bung?
I guess it gets him on these shows.
Was anyone really excited about Perot?
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Bill Clinton was.
Actually, I think Nate Silver is a Democrat.
I don't see how there is a conflict there.
I don't think we'll know much of anything until after the first of the year, but I agree that this time, things at least SEEM different.
I would not or will not vote for Yeb.
Neither will I. I will not cast a vote for the Uniparty if a GOPe candidate is in there. No way.
Cruzzzzzzzz!
Has the GOP stopped to think what will happen to the Party if Trump does NOT get the nomination?
Don’t remember him drawing crowds like Trump. Had lots of family in Dayton.
He who accepts the most $$ from outside interests wins, and is controlled by the puppet masters. Trump has no strings, therefore he is dangerous, and not open to influence $$$. At least I hope he isn’t. All we ever get are the best politicians “Money can buy”.
He probably has an inside track to the Democrat fraud machine, so he knows the outcome in advance.
“Disagree. Trump is just a reiteration of Ross Perot. He has no political gravitas, and while that is currently a huge bonus, it will ultimately be his exit ticket. Once Trump is gone - it’ll be politics as usual.”
Actually, IMO, the advantage that Trump has over all the GOP candidates, and every Rat candidate not named PIOPS, is that everyone already knows his name. He is a celebrity. Even the low info. voters know who he is. His name recognition is huge, much, much, more so than Perot was.
Yep, he has a pretty accurate track record I think.
“He must be a Jebby supporter.”
LOL! Nate Silver????
I’ll take 20:1 money on Trump.
I don’t like him, but if Nate Silver is a betting man, I’ll take Trump for my one thousand against Nate and everyone else for twenty thousand. I like my odds.
Nate Silver has about 2.5% chance of being seen as a wise person.
Pop over to 44, I think it was.
Mastador1 saw it and called it.
“This jerk got lucky once so how he’s touted as some sage.”
No, not just once. He makes predictions in all the big races, and they are usually pretty good.
For example, in 2008, he accurate predicted the results of 49 out of 50 states, and in 2012 he beat that and got 50 out of 50 states right. So I don’t think his statistical methods didn’t just got lucky on a fluke.
Booshies have 0%.
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