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Nate Silver: Trump, Carson Have About 5% Chance Of Winning Gop Nomination
Breitbart ^ | 9/15/15 | IAN HANCHETT

Posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123

Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.”

Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the polls now, mid-September didn’t win the nomination, didn’t even come close. So, if you look four years ago, Rick Perry was in the midst of a surge right now, and eight years ago on the Democratic side, you had Howard Dean — or 12 years ago, rather, Howard Dean was surging, Hillary Clinton was still way ahead of Barack Obama in 2008. Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls in 2008. I think people — there’s so much interest in this election, in this campaign, people forget that polls five months before Iowa, historically, have told you very, very little.”

-snip-

Silver added that an establishment candidate was “probably” going to be the nominee.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; demagogicparty; election2016; howarddean; memebuilding; natesilver; newyork; pajamaboy; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; rickperry; rudygiuliani; trump; trump2016
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1 posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123
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To: jimbo123

OK.

Cruz it is!


2 posted on 09/15/2015 9:52:18 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: jimbo123

Wasn’t Nate Silver the one who nailed it - right down to the winning percentage - when he called the Obama/Romney race results?


3 posted on 09/15/2015 9:53:29 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (With Great Freedom comes Great Responsibility)
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To: jimbo123

I’d say he knows very little. He must be a Jebby supporter.

OTOH, the GOPe is determined to lose.


4 posted on 09/15/2015 9:53:36 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: jimbo123

Let’s see ,,,,,, my next guess is Lindsey ,,,, right Nate ???


5 posted on 09/15/2015 9:54:32 AM PDT by Lionheartusa1 ()-: 0bamanomics is the equal distribution of adolescent propaganda & indoctrination :-)
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To: jimbo123

Will all the serious issues facing the country, this will not be a “typical” election cycle.


6 posted on 09/15/2015 9:54:40 AM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Liberals are like the Taliban and ISIS....destroying cultural icons they don't like.)
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To: jimbo123

Whew! Now that that’s settled I can go back to sleep.


7 posted on 09/15/2015 9:54:42 AM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: Responsibility2nd
He called every state except one in 2008, and called all 50 states accurately in 2012.

He's bad at sports predictions, but amazingly accurate at political ones.

8 posted on 09/15/2015 9:55:07 AM PDT by GunRunner
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To: jimbo123

Something here about stopped clocks being right twice a day. This jerk got lucky once so how he’s touted as some sage. BS!


9 posted on 09/15/2015 9:55:40 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: SaveFerris
I’d say he knows very little. He must be a Jebby supporter.

Actually, I think Nate Silver is a Democrat.

10 posted on 09/15/2015 9:56:23 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: BenLurkin

Agreed. Cruz it is, then. :-)


11 posted on 09/15/2015 9:56:26 AM PDT by Theo (May Christ be exalted above all.)
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To: GunRunner

But those were traditional elections. This one is anything but traditional.

I think that is why all of the pundits can’t believe what is happening. It goes against everything they have always known about elections and the electorate.


12 posted on 09/15/2015 9:57:11 AM PDT by Amntn
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To: Responsibility2nd

Nate Silver was fed internal poll numbers from David Axelrod for Obama/Romney.

His most recent predictions (without help) have been failures.


13 posted on 09/15/2015 9:57:14 AM PDT by jimbo123
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To: jimbo123

Perry and Gulliani were not pulling down crowds of 20,000 to 30,000 in stadiums. All major channels were not carrying their speeches in entirety every other day. So Nate give it a break. LOL!


14 posted on 09/15/2015 9:57:39 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: CA Conservative

Well then, he’s definitely hoping Jebby will get nominated.

He knows how much a Bush name is political poison.

You can write the campaign ads right now.


15 posted on 09/15/2015 9:57:59 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: Responsibility2nd
per wiki

 

After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, in 2009 Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.[5]

 

 

In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2012_U.S._elections

16 posted on 09/15/2015 9:58:41 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (With Great Freedom comes Great Responsibility)
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To: jimbo123
One is that if you look back at history...

You'll see this situation is unprecedented, so history can provide no insight.

17 posted on 09/15/2015 9:58:54 AM PDT by papertyger (Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui neat. / Proof lies on him who asserts, not on him who denies)
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To: jimbo123

Nate is out to lunch. I’d give Carson 5%, but Trump is at 50%. !Yeb! is at 2%


18 posted on 09/15/2015 9:59:13 AM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: jimbo123

An establishment candidate?

15 or 16 of the 18 can be called establishment.

Nate’s really sticking his neck out!

LOL!


19 posted on 09/15/2015 9:59:17 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: GunRunner

Silver did not do that well in the 2014 midterms.


20 posted on 09/15/2015 9:59:48 AM PDT by kabar
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