Majority of Republicans Doubt Theory of Evolution

Gallup News Service ^ | 11 June 2007 | Frank Newport

[Alter Kaker]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans' religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution. Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about evolution.

The data indicate some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on this issue. About a quarter of Americans say they believe both in evolution's explanation that humans evolved over millions of years and in the creationist explanation that humans were created as is about 10,000 years ago.

Broad Patterns of Belief in Evolution

The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin and development of life has been controversial for centuries, and, in particular, since the 1859 publication of Charles Darwin's famous The Origin of Species. Although many scientists accept evolution as the best theoretical explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, the issue of its validity has risen again as an important issue in the current 2008 presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates have included questions to the candidates about evolution. Three candidates -- Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo -- indicated in response to a question during the May 3 debate that they did not believe in the theory of evolution, although they have attempted to clarify their positions in the weeks since.

Several recent Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a significant number of Americans have doubts about the theory of evolution.  

One such question was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:

Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you, personally, believe in evolution, or not?

	Yes, believe in evolution	No, do not	No opinion
2007 May 21-24		49	48	2

It is important to note that this question included a specific reference to "thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth . . ." that oriented the respondents toward an explicit consideration of the implication of evolution for man's origin. Results may have been different without this introductory phrase.

With that said, Americans' responses to this question are essentially split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and about half say they do not.

A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll asked about evolution side by side with a similar question about creationism:

Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?

A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		18%	35	16	28	3	53	44

B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		39%	27	16	15	3	66	31

These results are similar to those from the question asked in May. A little more than half of Americans say evolution -- as defined in this question wording -- is definitely or probably true. Forty-four percent say that it is probably or definitely false.  

In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of creationism is definitely or probably true.

A separate Gallup Poll trend question -- also asked in May -- gave Americans three choices about human beings' origins. Responses to this question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative closest to the creationist perspective, that "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation of evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a total of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God's direction.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

	Man developed, with God guiding	Man developed, but God had no part in process	God created man in present form	Other/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2007 May 10-13	38	14		43	4
2006 May 8-11	36	13		46	5
2004 Nov 7-10	38	13	45	4
2001 Feb 19-21		37	12	45	5
1999 Aug 24-26	40	9	47		4
1997 Nov 6-9	39	10	44	7
1993 Jun 23-26	35		11	47	7
1982 Jan	38	9	44	9

To summarize the results of these three questions about evolution and human origins:

• Across the three question wordings, the data show consistently that about half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe that the theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or believe that humans developed over million of years with or without God's guidance.

• Belief in the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 years ago is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept is measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans -- when presented with three alternatives -- say they believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same time, two-thirds of Americans in a stand-alone question say they believe in the theory of "creationism" -- defined as the idea that humans were created in their present form 10,000 years ago.

It might seem contradictory to believe that humans were created in their present form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at the same time believe that humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the two side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold these conflicting views.

View of Evolution and View of Creationism Numbers Represent % of Total Sample
		View of Creationism
		Definitely true	Probably true	Probably false	Definitely false
			%	%	%	%
View of Evolution	Definitely true	3	1		2	11
	Probably true	5	14	12	3
		Probably false	6	8	1	1
	Definitely false	24		3	*	1
* Less than 0.5%

These results show that:

• 24% of Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the theory of creationism are probably or definitely true
• 41% believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
• 28% believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false

• 3% either believe that both are false or have no opinion about at least one of the theories

Without further research, it's not possible to determine the exact thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of evolution and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some respondents were seeking a way to express their views that evolution may have been initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer that they agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to express this more complex attitude.

Importance of Religion

It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the origin of human beings.

This wording may have made Americans think about the implications of the theory of evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as reflected in religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo-Christian story of human origins as related in the book of Genesis. USA Today recently quoted Christian conservative and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer as saying: "Most of us don't think that we're just apes with trousers."

Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with explicitly religious explanations: 

(Asked of those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most important reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution? [OPEN-ENDED]      

	2007 May 21-24
	%
I believe in Jesus Christ	19
I believe in the almighty God, creator of Heaven and Earth		16
Due to my religion and faith	16
Not enough scientific evidence to prove otherwise	14
I believe in what I read in the Bible	12
I'm a Christian	9
I don't believe humans come from beasts/monkeys	3
Other	5
No reason in particular	2
No opinion	3

The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It is fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief. Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the statement that "I'm a Christian." A relatively small number of this group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe that humans come from beasts or monkeys.

The graph shows the relationship between church attendance and response to the straightforward question of belief in evolution.

The group of Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory of evolution.

Republicans Most Likely to Reject Evolution

As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the political debate already this year, with much attention given to the fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.

It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to the choir" in terms of addressing their own party's constituents -- the group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans are much more likely to be religious and attend church than independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more likely not to believe in evolution than are independents and Democrats. 

Bottom Line

The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible -- that God created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, occurred about 10,000 years ago.

Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about evolution.

Being religious in America today is strongly related to partisanship, with more religious Americans in general much more likely to be Republicans than to be independents or Democrats. This relationship helps explain the finding that Republicans are significantly more likely than independents or Democrats to say they do not believe in evolution. When three Republican presidential candidates said in a May debate that they did not believe in evolution, the current analysis suggests that many Republicans across the country no doubt agreed.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Coyoteman]

I agree, and there is massive evidence for a world wide flood.

Sorry, that happens not to be the case. Most experts place the flood at about 4350 years ago, and that is a time period that is well known to archaeologists (note: archaeologists, not geologists).

If there was such massive evidence it would be easy to find. It has not been found. Instead, there is massive evidence that no such global flood occurred at about 4350 years ago.

[ASA Vet]

Care to waste your time playing the flute again?

[itsahoot]

You're not only wrong, you really couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

Show us a few hundred examples, just to prove the truth of your statement, then no one here will doubt your veracity, else sell that cr@p somewhere else.

[mnehring]

Yes it is. And while creationists have managed to dig up a tiny handful of scientists who say they don't believe in evolution, virtually all of them refuse to believe in evolution because they are evangelical Christians or Islamic fundamentalists, and their religion requires them to reject evolution regardless of the evidence. What you don't find are scientists who dispute evolution on what are primarily scientific (as opposed to theological) grounds.

I can actually find you more scientists who are Christians and don't see a conflict between Christianity and the Bible. At that, it seems the more scientific knowledge one has, the more 'spiritual' (for lack of a better term) they become... A lot of this battle is fought or vocalized, in the middle area of people who have only rote (High School/Sunday School) level knowledge of the Bible and Science.

[Retired Greyhound]

Good luck proving any of that. Lots of hypothesis in there.

There are many gaps and many assumptions that have to be made to make the link.

In any case, suppose that it is all true, it only argues for a God that must have known what He is doing.

[Alter Kaker]

Yulp, jest taint getting it.

There are only two possibilities: you're either not familiar with the evidence, which is overwhelming and conclusive, or you willfully choose to ignore that evidence. The former explanation is more charitable than the latter, which implies dishonesty on your part. I don't like to think that people are dishonest, so I choose the former.

[JohnnyZ]

What a condescending little twerp.

You can say that again.

Oh, I just did.

[mnehring]

Correction on 64--
I can actually find you more scientists who are Christians and don't see a conflict between Christianity Evolution and the Bible...

[svcw]

Ape
My dad used to say we had family that swung by their necks but never by their tails.

[radioman]

Sounds like the author wants to equate the belief in evolution with the right to govern.

That's my take on it too.
.

[Steve_Seattle]

People don’t reject evolution because they are intellectually incapable of understanding it. To phrase this as a conflict between intelligence and stupidity is way off the mark. It is fundamentally a conflict between two basic beliefs: (1) mind and intelligence can evolve from non-mind and non-intelligence; and (2) mind and intelligence must spring from a greater mind and greater intelligence. Position #2, the anti-evolutionist position, insists that the cause cannot be inferior to the effect.

[dannyboy72]

All articles written about evolution always come from the perspective of ...”how stupid, all these people still don’t believe in evolution...what is wrong with them”. But the truth is there is no evidence that proves the “theory” of evolution. The person who put forth the theory of evolution thought Blacks were an inferior offshoot or animalistic race.

I personally believe in “adaptation”, not evolution. I don’t think we evolved from a single cell. I think we were a planned creation that has adapted to our surroundings. And for all of the holier-than-thou evolutionists to say they are right, when they openly admit they cannot prove this, is all about egotism. Them being smarter than anyone else. Just because the Libs and the schools have “taught” evolution for decades doesn’t mean it’s true.

The “fact” that blacks were inferior, not human, was taught for hundreds of years. Didn’t mean it was true. So, evolutionists, I think it’s adaptation, prove me wrong. You can’t.

[svcw]

Hey I thought the earth was flat otherwise maps would be round.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Because you refuse to listen. Scientific voices are silenced because there are some emotionally invested in the idea of evolution, even though the rational mind rejects it on its face as laughable and absurd.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Now you are conflating a scientific knowledge of the “evolutionary process” of mutations and genetic manipulations with the historical recreations of the origins of species using an evolutionary, non-creative framework.

They are two separate things. If a person doesn’t think mutations exist, they are denying what can be seen with their own eyes, and tested and proven.

But (not advancing a theory) if God simply created the universe 10,000 years ago with exactly the properties it would possess had it evolved over 4 billion years, all your “science” would be unable to tell the difference.

And if there WAS a creation, that creation had to make everything SOMEHOW, so to argue that it’s absurd that a Creator WOULD make things in one manner or another is simply to argue against something you probably don’t believe anyway.

After all, some things would almost have to be created with appearance of age — gravity seems to operate in the time domain, so to create a solar system, the Creator would best apply gravity as if the things brought into being had done so minutes earlier (such that the gravity was already effecting the outcome), and if you are going to create lights in the sky, it makes sense to create the light waves reaching the earth.

In fact, it would be really funny if God just created the light wave/particles/effects, and skipped the whole actual BODIES, for things that were “too far away”.

This is not what I believe, or don’t believe, it’s just to point out that once I accept that there is a God powerful enough to create the universe, your entire theory of Evolution is useless for explaining origins, as my God’s creation could be precisely aimed at misleading those who refuse to believe in Him.

[mnehring]

Depends on what makes ‘man’ human.. is this referring to the physical flesh body or is this a pesher describing the spirit?

After all, what makes ‘man’, man? Is it our flesh or is it the Spirit God put in us?

The interesting thing about Genesis 1:26, is, in Genesis 2:4, it says God created man ‘before any shrub appeared or any plant sprung up’. This seems to indicate that ‘man’ in some way, preceded the Genesis 1 creation (at least the vegetation steps.) Could this be reflecting on our true selves, our Spirit? All through the Bible, it says that we are not our body, we are our Spirit.

[CharlesWayneCT]

My take on this is that many people just have a gut feeling that intelligence and order cannot spring from non-intelligence and disorder.

They probably noticed their closets are never organized when they open the doors, even when they are certain they arranged them neatly earlier. :-)

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Guessing that it’s just easier to dismiss Creationists as a bunch of ignorant morons.

[yankeedame]

Humanity will turn back to it’s proper place in God’s creation...

And that would be? (A genuine question, not a dare)

[Stingray51]

The article also ignores the Christian belief that humans, unlike animals, are not just a body, but instead are made up of both a body and a soul. I think this is pretty critical to understanding the perspective of a lot of the people attempting to respond to the poll.

Also, I think the questions would have been more interesting without the 10,000 year figure, as it is very possible to reject human evolution without believing that the approximately 10,000 year age of mankind is literal or even having an opinion on that issue.