Majority of Republicans Doubt Theory of Evolution

Gallup News Service ^ | 11 June 2007 | Frank Newport

[Alter Kaker]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans' religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution. Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about evolution.

The data indicate some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on this issue. About a quarter of Americans say they believe both in evolution's explanation that humans evolved over millions of years and in the creationist explanation that humans were created as is about 10,000 years ago.

Broad Patterns of Belief in Evolution

The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin and development of life has been controversial for centuries, and, in particular, since the 1859 publication of Charles Darwin's famous The Origin of Species. Although many scientists accept evolution as the best theoretical explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, the issue of its validity has risen again as an important issue in the current 2008 presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates have included questions to the candidates about evolution. Three candidates -- Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo -- indicated in response to a question during the May 3 debate that they did not believe in the theory of evolution, although they have attempted to clarify their positions in the weeks since.

Several recent Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a significant number of Americans have doubts about the theory of evolution.  

One such question was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:

Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you, personally, believe in evolution, or not?

	Yes, believe in evolution	No, do not	No opinion
2007 May 21-24		49	48	2

It is important to note that this question included a specific reference to "thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth . . ." that oriented the respondents toward an explicit consideration of the implication of evolution for man's origin. Results may have been different without this introductory phrase.

With that said, Americans' responses to this question are essentially split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and about half say they do not.

A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll asked about evolution side by side with a similar question about creationism:

Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?

A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		18%	35	16	28	3	53	44

B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		39%	27	16	15	3	66	31

These results are similar to those from the question asked in May. A little more than half of Americans say evolution -- as defined in this question wording -- is definitely or probably true. Forty-four percent say that it is probably or definitely false.  

In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of creationism is definitely or probably true.

A separate Gallup Poll trend question -- also asked in May -- gave Americans three choices about human beings' origins. Responses to this question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative closest to the creationist perspective, that "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation of evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a total of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God's direction.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

	Man developed, with God guiding	Man developed, but God had no part in process	God created man in present form	Other/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2007 May 10-13	38	14		43	4
2006 May 8-11	36	13		46	5
2004 Nov 7-10	38	13	45	4
2001 Feb 19-21		37	12	45	5
1999 Aug 24-26	40	9	47		4
1997 Nov 6-9	39	10	44	7
1993 Jun 23-26	35		11	47	7
1982 Jan	38	9	44	9

To summarize the results of these three questions about evolution and human origins:

• Across the three question wordings, the data show consistently that about half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe that the theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or believe that humans developed over million of years with or without God's guidance.

• Belief in the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 years ago is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept is measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans -- when presented with three alternatives -- say they believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same time, two-thirds of Americans in a stand-alone question say they believe in the theory of "creationism" -- defined as the idea that humans were created in their present form 10,000 years ago.

It might seem contradictory to believe that humans were created in their present form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at the same time believe that humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the two side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold these conflicting views.

View of Evolution and View of Creationism Numbers Represent % of Total Sample
		View of Creationism
		Definitely true	Probably true	Probably false	Definitely false
			%	%	%	%
View of Evolution	Definitely true	3	1		2	11
	Probably true	5	14	12	3
		Probably false	6	8	1	1
	Definitely false	24		3	*	1
* Less than 0.5%

These results show that:

• 24% of Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the theory of creationism are probably or definitely true
• 41% believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
• 28% believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false

• 3% either believe that both are false or have no opinion about at least one of the theories

Without further research, it's not possible to determine the exact thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of evolution and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some respondents were seeking a way to express their views that evolution may have been initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer that they agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to express this more complex attitude.

Importance of Religion

It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the origin of human beings.

This wording may have made Americans think about the implications of the theory of evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as reflected in religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo-Christian story of human origins as related in the book of Genesis. USA Today recently quoted Christian conservative and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer as saying: "Most of us don't think that we're just apes with trousers."

Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with explicitly religious explanations: 

(Asked of those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most important reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution? [OPEN-ENDED]      

	2007 May 21-24
	%
I believe in Jesus Christ	19
I believe in the almighty God, creator of Heaven and Earth		16
Due to my religion and faith	16
Not enough scientific evidence to prove otherwise	14
I believe in what I read in the Bible	12
I'm a Christian	9
I don't believe humans come from beasts/monkeys	3
Other	5
No reason in particular	2
No opinion	3

The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It is fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief. Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the statement that "I'm a Christian." A relatively small number of this group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe that humans come from beasts or monkeys.

The graph shows the relationship between church attendance and response to the straightforward question of belief in evolution.

The group of Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory of evolution.

Republicans Most Likely to Reject Evolution

As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the political debate already this year, with much attention given to the fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.

It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to the choir" in terms of addressing their own party's constituents -- the group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans are much more likely to be religious and attend church than independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more likely not to believe in evolution than are independents and Democrats. 

Bottom Line

The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible -- that God created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, occurred about 10,000 years ago.

Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about evolution.

Being religious in America today is strongly related to partisanship, with more religious Americans in general much more likely to be Republicans than to be independents or Democrats. This relationship helps explain the finding that Republicans are significantly more likely than independents or Democrats to say they do not believe in evolution. When three Republican presidential candidates said in a May debate that they did not believe in evolution, the current analysis suggests that many Republicans across the country no doubt agreed.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[sirchtruth]

There is absolutely no doubt about it here. It’s very sad that so many do believe in evolution.

I really have no problem with people believing in evolution just so long as they don't try and trump it as a Fact!

But you're right, it is said so many believe in such a farce and turn a blind eye to the evidence for ID when commons sense dictate is all around them.

[curiosity]

For some reason the headline writer lumped the 2% who "Don't know" with the 48% who say "No," making the assumption that the "Don't know" people doubt evolution. That's probably a bad assumption; I suspect the Don't knows haven't thought about it and don't care very much.

[Texas_Dawg]

The party will either go into the 21st century and win elections, or it will refuse to modernize and continue to lose. I hope party leaders have the foresight to realize that opposing modernity is a losing strategy.

The GOP had to bring on a lot of poorly educated people in order to advance its war. Now it's stuck with a bunch of big government loving retards.

It's the 21st Century and the GOP still loves all kind of Socialism and is full of people highly suspicious of free markets and capitalism. No big surprise then that its voters would reject evolution as well.

[curiosity]

“Evolution does not explain creation”

Who ever said it does?

[JSDude1]

I agree, and there is massive evidence for a world wide flood.

[Steve_Seattle]

If I read these numbers correctly, almost half of the country does not believe in the official scientific theory of human origins. That's quite amazing, and should confirm Europeans in their belief that Americans are ignorant.

I'm surprised how high these numbers are, especially since newspaper editorialists will have you believe that only a tiny fringe element of Christian fundamentalists rejects evolution. But Christian fundamentalists do not comprise half of the population.

My take on this is that many people just have a gut feeling that intelligence and order cannot spring from non-intelligence and disorder.

[Alter Kaker]

Most freepers seem to be Macroevolutionists.

Well, maybe freepers are just maybe better educated than the general voting population. You should know that the owner of this site is an outspoken creationist, something that has occasionally frustrated those us who believe in Science.

[mnehring]

there is no evidence that one species becomes another.

You should check out the book 'The Language of God' by Francis Collins. He is a strong Christian and head of the Human Genome Project. He shows there isn't a conflict w/ Creation and Evolution.. and there is evidence that one species can change into another. It has been shown through genetics that one small genetic error(sic) (mutation) can result in species changes. You can actually use genetics to track back species evolution. What is good about Collins' book is that he shows this doesn't reject God, but proves there is a God. Note: this isn't intelligent design but what is termed 'Theistic Evolution.'

[Red6]

Evolution, as the dogma that is instructed at public schools and embraced by secularists as part of their humanistic religion, is a theory. It is based on seven very large assumptions and much is extrapolated. It is a theory, no more, no less. The problem that the secularists have with those who point this out is that just like they oppose any belief in a divine being, rejecting evolution rejects their premise of a universe void of God, which is what they ultimately are out to prove in their argumentation. Those beating the evolution drum are not about science, something they claim to have on their side. They are about pushing humanism, something very popular in Germany where this “ersatz religion” is very popular.

[tflabo]

A line from an old Doc Watson song....Thats All

Man came from monkey...so some folks say....but the Good Book don't quite tell it that way.....if you believe this monkey business like some folks do.... then I'd rather be the monkeys' brother than you.... and Thats all....Thats all......

[Ben Mugged]

I think you agree with the author. Are you an athest? (a real question, not intended to insult).

[Always Right]

My take on this is that many people just have a gut feeling that intelligence and order cannot spring from non-intelligence and disorder.

Similar to the gut feeling Einstein had on the issue.

[JSDude1]

the scientific community is not uniform in their belief of macro-(neo darwinist) evolution: there is much “scientific evidence” that disputes the theory of macro-evolution.

[mnehring]

The question is, what makes us ‘man’, the flesh we wear or the spirit God put in us?

[Alter Kaker]

Because one may not buy the total “evolution theory” does not mean they are 1900th century caveman.

If you don't understand how evolution occurred, you're not very well educated. There are a lot of people who aren't very well educated, but basing a political party on their support is a bad long term strategy -- when competing for their votes, the Democrats can out demagogue us any day of the week.

[Steve_Seattle]

" . . . someone who believes in sea monsters or creationism probably also doesn't have the requisite analytical abilities to manage bureaucracy, defeat terrorism or keep social security solvent."

The authors of the creationist books are genarally highly intelligent and trained in the sciences and/or mathematics. Any idiot can believe in the theory of evolution; it's actually a very simplistic theory. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it certainly doesn't require any great mental powers to understand it.

[Sybeck1]

Wonder how many believe in the “Big Bang”?

[docbnj]

Oh, I love these aruments that evolution is not a fact.

Let’s get this stratight. A fact is a verifiable observation. A theory (in science) is a comprehensive system of explanation for many observations. It is not the same as an hypothesis.

Evolution is a Theory. That does not mean that it is tentative, unproven, or not. It is a thoeory, just as is the Atomic Theory of matter, the Theory of Gravity, the Theory of Plate Tectonics.

All those theories are true, by the way.

[Perdogg]

Who decided that the two were mutually exclusive?

When you think about it, Christianity itself evolved.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Good for Mr. Robinson.

Macroevolution isn't science, and there are many idiotic Macroevolutionists (not you), and many intelligent Creationists.