Posted on 09/24/2004 7:28:05 AM PDT by ironmike4242
Recent comments by Kerry campaign "guru" Tad Devine hinted that Bush's bounce is over, and that polls are moving towards Kerry. Is this true? To answer the question for myself I analyzed the horserace results from 13 major pollseters: AP/Ipos, Fox, CBS, NBC, Zogby, IBD/TIPP, Gallup, ARG, Battleground, Pew, Harris, Newsweek, and Time. I think I got them all.
METHOD
I define "momentum" for Kerry as closing the gap by a reasonable margin (a 1-2 point swing is statistically irrelevant). So I looked to see if the margin for any of these polls has closed for Kerry recently. And of course I compared Gallup to Gallup, and Time to Time. It's pointless to compare Gallup to Time for obvious reasons.
RESULTS
In two polls out of the 13 Kerry closed the Gap on Bush. The Newsweek polls showed Bush up 11 on 9/3/04, but only up 6 on 9/10/04. The second poll where Kerry gained was that bizarre Pew poll that showed Bush up 16 on 9/10/04, but only up 1 four days later. By the way I should mention that Bush led in the most recent version of every poll except the last Harris poll that had Kerry up 1 48-47. In fact Bush maintained or expanded his lead in each of the other 11 polls.
DISCUSSION
So what on earth is Tad Devine talking about when he says Kerry has momentum? Well that's simple... I've seen it before in the Dole campaign, and Pat Buchanan's primary campaigns. You need to be able to tell your volunteers, and staff that things are ok, that you're in good shape, and most importantly that they're not wasting their time working for you. We've seen several examples of this out of the Kerry camp recently. He's "ready to fight!" and "not going to sit around and let Bush blah blah blah!" These comments are little more than an attempt to energize his currently dormant voter base.
Kerry has no momentum in national polls. He has no momentum in any state polls either. Bush has moved ahead in Iowa, and Wisconsin, and he's pulled at least even in Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, and maybe Oregon AND Bush might even be competitive in places like New Jersey and Maryland. Kerry HAS to put a good face on this campaing because it's on the verge of moving completely out of his reach. The stepped-up attacks, and the false bravado should be taken for what they are.... strategy.
JMHO.
no
Very soon, if I were Rove, I'd start pulling ads from OH and hitting MI, PA, NJ, CA, MN, IL, and NY. I'd keep the heat on in FL, but I think that is safe now.
Howard Fineman on Imus the other day had a great line: "It's over in Ohio. Pennsylvania is where the actionis now."
I surely hope that is not needed but it would be rather exquisite to lose FLA and still win the WH. I think FLA is Bush by 8-10%. What military family wants Kerry who is helping the enemy and hoping they win.
Absolutely. I agree.
I've been saying that all along.
IMHO, Kerry has no-chance if he doesn't carry Pennsylvania. The fact that Kerry has yet to seal the deal in PA is very telling, especially when you realize that his campaign is effectively pulling out of about 4 other swing-states.
If PA does go for Bush, it will be as part of a landslide. And I think at this point that is a distinct possibility.
Kerry is not now, nor has he really ever been close in OH. Bush was ahead in OH by 8% just one week prior to the election in 2000, before the DUI hurt him---but he still won by 4%. He is now, based on the poll, up between 4-10%. Kerry can save his/Ta-Ray-Za's money.
Exactly right. PA decides if it's a 320 EV night or (hope, hope, hope) a 400 EV night.
i am not a political expert/analyst, i just pray Bush will win. my husband is career military, and when clinton was our commander in chief the military was neglected sooooooooooo much. training aids, ammo, flight training for ALL flight guys were NOTHING!(like you all don't already know this!) and my favorite gift of clinton- the 1.4% pay raise for the military members...it may have been 2.8% one year, but if i remember correctly, for the majority of clinton's reign of terror our pay raises were a hearty 1.4%...thanks for nothing bill...i named my third son William becuz it's my granfather's name, but sometimes I wonder if I should have...haha. Anyway, does it make anyone else burn with impotent rage that the electoral map is a sea of lovely, vibrant red, while the blue is an isolated cluster concentrating on urban welfare states, and every election it's "too close to call" becuz of those big numbers blue gets with those few states?? I have no beef w the electoral college, but damn, the whole country is ruled by a few key lib states! I was a democrat in college, wised up in the real world after I saw the world serving in the military and traveled to europe, saudi arabia, other countries in the middle east, and saw for myself how damn lucky and good it is to be an American. Please someone with more experience and smarts tell me Kerry is doomed...i think he is, but PA, Fla, and CA nerve me.
Their antiwar rhetoric won't play well in OH - I have to assume they are aware of this. OH is very patriotic State.
With that said, until we hear the Kerry camp has pulled ad buys from OH we still need to remain active there with our own ads.
As for FL, I think we are up there by a few points, but I would not consider it Safe just yet. We need to really have a big ground game up and running there on election day. FL will have a big turnout this year (just because of 2000).
Kerry's best off keeping up his efforts in Ohio. While I think it's quite unlikely that he'll take Ohio, he needs to reel Wisconsin and Iowa back in, hold Pennsylvania, then take either Ohio or Florida to have any hope of winning. That's a tall order, but trying to draw the inside straight of WI, IA, PA, and FL is even tougher.
57% to 38% in TX...forget which poll...or was it 58% to 37%...hmm.
Your relatives are odd-man-out, here in West Texas...it will go HUGE for Bush!
Agree with you here. I think the Kerry camp and the MSM have invested to much effort in trying to move OH to the Kerry column for them to just walk away now.
However, with that said, the Kerry camp is trying to play both ways - Talking down Iraq (nationally) while trying to win OH (that is going to be very hard to do).
Until I hear that Kerry has pulled money out of OH - I tend to believe we need to keep our resources there as well.
The CNN electoral map tells the story. Bush is solid in the South and mid-West. Kerry is moving his dwindling resources into fewer and fewer states attempting to stem the Bush/Cheney tide. The problem is they are fighting to hang onto states that should be in the bag for them. One of the best examples is New Jersey ... many polls show it as a toss-up. It was won by Gore by 16 points. If Bush takes it, that would be a 30 point swing for a state his campaign never would have expected at the beginning. And if NJ fails Kerry on election night, the rest of the country in the Mid-West and West will stay home or vote for Bush so they can say they voted for the winner.
If I was a political analyst on TV eletion night, I would make Jersey my key early flag. Only it's a Kerry flag, because if it goes to Bush, it's over for Kerry early. But if it goes for Kerry, it just means the battle rages on.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Kerry is toast. He will do worse than Dukakis.
CNN gives NM to Bush?? Great news. I still have hopes for OR and MN too.
Kerry may pick up a couple of points in the weeks leading up to the debates, but I think you've got it about right.
It sure would be easier WITH Florida but it is possible for the Repubs to win without it. In addition to the states you mentioned though, GWB probably also has to take IA, and hold on to WI. Not to mention NH, WV, NV. All the signs are looking pretty good for now though. I hope the good poll news ramps up Republicans more, and dispirits the Dems. :)
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