Kerry may pick up a couple of points in the weeks leading up to the debates, but I think you've got it about right.
The race is not frozen, Kerry is losing ground on a daily basis. He just gave up on 3 more states this week.
Unfortunately for Kerry there are no more weeks leading up to the debates. The first one is six days away, and some analysts contend that it's the only one that matters since it's the only one didicated to foreign policy. If Kerry fails to hit a home run in the first debate, the other two might not matter.