Very soon, if I were Rove, I'd start pulling ads from OH and hitting MI, PA, NJ, CA, MN, IL, and NY. I'd keep the heat on in FL, but I think that is safe now.
Howard Fineman on Imus the other day had a great line: "It's over in Ohio. Pennsylvania is where the actionis now."
Their antiwar rhetoric won't play well in OH - I have to assume they are aware of this. OH is very patriotic State.
With that said, until we hear the Kerry camp has pulled ad buys from OH we still need to remain active there with our own ads.
As for FL, I think we are up there by a few points, but I would not consider it Safe just yet. We need to really have a big ground game up and running there on election day. FL will have a big turnout this year (just because of 2000).