The CNN electoral map tells the story. Bush is solid in the South and mid-West. Kerry is moving his dwindling resources into fewer and fewer states attempting to stem the Bush/Cheney tide. The problem is they are fighting to hang onto states that should be in the bag for them. One of the best examples is New Jersey ... many polls show it as a toss-up. It was won by Gore by 16 points. If Bush takes it, that would be a 30 point swing for a state his campaign never would have expected at the beginning. And if NJ fails Kerry on election night, the rest of the country in the Mid-West and West will stay home or vote for Bush so they can say they voted for the winner.
If I was a political analyst on TV eletion night, I would make Jersey my key early flag. Only it's a Kerry flag, because if it goes to Bush, it's over for Kerry early. But if it goes for Kerry, it just means the battle rages on.
CNN gives NM to Bush?? Great news. I still have hopes for OR and MN too.