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How close is the race for president? |
Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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How close is the race for president? |
W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
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Loaded with Zogby's interactive special sauce and a load of BS.
Actually, the results are not far from other polls. The real difference is that ARG has Penn and Fla going for Kerry each by 1%. That represents a 48 EC point turnaround for Kerry. BFD, there's only one poll that counts.
i have seen other polls today showing a big jump for kerry--not good--but they were based on rassmusan-and zogby
I believe it means that they have the Rep/Dem/Ind breakdown of the state reflected in the percentages of the respondents.
rasmussen...
Election 2004
National Political Tracking Data
Updated daily by Noon Eastern
Last Update Wednesday
Click on Topic for Details
Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 45
Congress Dem 43 GOP 41
President Bush Job Approval 53
Electoral College Bush 213 - Kerry 204
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 42 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 37
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 41
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 50 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 47 Terrorists 30
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 45 Poor 42
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 43 Poor 41
No worries. I emailed Garrety @ Kerry Spot and told him this was bogus: http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
Look at "UPDATE" he quotes me.
From 2000:
1) KY Gore +6 (Bush won by 16)
2) LA Gore +7 (Bush won by 8)
3) WV Gore +8 (Bush won by 6)
4) TN Gore +6 (Bush won by 4)
a big drop here
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
if you run the mouse over each state you will see what poll it's using
I think that ARG is generally 3-6 points weighted pro-Kerry in most states. Here are some examples: Bush leads by double-digits in Arizons in most polls, but six with ARG. Bush leads by 16 points or so in Georgia in most polls, but 11 with ARG. Bush trails by 4-6 points in Michigan but is down 8 with ARG. Bush has a comfortable 13 point lead or so in TN, but is only up 7 with ARG.
http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html
Contrary to many breathless freepers I seriously doubt MD or CA are going to end up in Bush's pocket. A 285 Bush win to Kerry's 253 is my guesstimate.
But that's just a guess.
Bush adds WI (+10), WV (+5), FL (+27), MN (+10), OR (+7), PA (+21), which very closely matches what unbiased polls show. That makes the race Bush 333, Kerry 205.
If we only adjust two points, Bush gains only Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, and the other two go tossup, which still yields Bush 316, Kerry 205.
Wasn't a poll released on Monday showing an 8-pt lead in Ohio?
Ah. Must be those anti-Atkins types, General Mills or somebody, behind this poll!:)
Rasmussen sez: Bush wins and Dasshole loses.
I can live with that.
From electoral-vote.com the ARG results appear similar to what is currently posted with the most recent changes coming from Rasmussen. You may be right about ARG, if the weight their % based upon registrations of the population (that's usually what is meant by weighted), then their number could be wildly off. It depends upon the accuracy of the weighting. I just refuse to get upset by the day-to-day fluctuation in polling numbers.
Mel Martinez also wins, IMHO.
That would make it 284 - 254.
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