[KantianBurke]

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

Contrary to many breathless freepers I seriously doubt MD or CA are going to end up in Bush's pocket. A 285 Bush win to Kerry's 253 is my guesstimate.

[comebacknewt]

I'm right with you. I say Kerry picks off NH, and W takes WI while everything else stays the same.

That would make it 284 - 254.

[WOSG]

Ah, but you are a "paleocon purveyor of pessimistic poll predictions". Try saying that 10 times fast! :-)

you are probably right that MD and CA will vote Kerry, but imho, OR, NJ, NH, IA and perhaps MI will fall in Bush's column. And certainly PA, WV and NM.

I predicted in February an 8 point Bush win.
I am going to stick by it, but Kerry's lousy campaign may cost him even more:

http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_freedomstruth_archive.html