Posted on 10/13/2016 10:32:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There's one word to describe the major national presidential election polls over the last two weeks: "wild."
Just about all of those wild swings in the polls lately have been in favor of Hillary Clinton, as she's now increased her lead from less than one percentage point in the RealClearPolitics poll average to 4.6 points as of Thursday morning.
But there's another word you have to use when you see such massive swings in the polls in just a few days with less than a month to go before Election Day: "baloney." And the reason why they're baloney has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, partisan weighting, or even Russian hacking. It's all about common sense.
The wild poll swings we saw after the first debate and after the Donald Trump "Access Hollywood" tape was leaked were not a straightforward case of Trump did a poor job or Trump looked bad so fewer people now say they'll vote for him. What happens in polling is that, if your candidate does something that makes him or her look bad, or that you don't agree with, you're less likely to want to answer poll questions about him – even if it's anonymous. It doesn't mean you still don't support him. Just that right this minute, you really don't want to talk about it....
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
From the article :
The crazy numbers are simply representative of which candidate’s supporters are responding to the polls more.
This entire scenario is just the latest example of why it’s not wise to call this contest over before it’s over. You’d think that after the third, fourth, or fifth crazy thing to happen in this election, the “experts” would get that.
I guess not. Should we take another poll?
There’s another word I think of...
Rigged.
In Lies We Trust.
Trump ~ 65%
Clinton ~ 27%
Bank it.
In reality Trump is far, far ahead. His strategy of bypassing the media in favor of several massive rallies a week has gotten his message directly to the people...not filter. And once people see Trump they stop listening to the media. The media is desperately trying to do what they’ve done in the past but it’s not working....so they ratchet it up...and it still doesn’t work. It’s the ONLY weapon they have.
I was polled by Rasmussen several years ago, with the automatic phone button poll method. I thought it was very well done. No human on the other end to "imply" you are a racist if you say NO, I'm not voting for Obama.
I've also been polled by Quinnipiac (University) a couple of times, back in the GW Bush years. One of the polls was to answer questions about Connecticut candidates. I think the other was for presidential candidates.
Polls now are intended to sway public opinion, not reflect it.
LOL! Good one.
Good article, I learned something.
We never participate in polls or surveys at our house.
Anybody that wants information out of us has to work for it.
Flies are attracted to rotting meat.
Pushing the buttons was easy enough, yes, I just think that they will delete the vote of the mid 50’s white man.
You see...I don’t trust them.
I don’t know how they make ALL of their money.
A somewhat encouraging word. Thanks, 2DV.
From the article:
“...Every poll has a list of the top people it wants to survey, but when and if those top people don’t respond, the survey’s statistical reliability starts to decline. ...”
What if —nobody— answered a poll?
I bet that is what happened with brexit.
Everyone is in denial,what’s the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Well folks guess what,we are all insane,we go through the same exercise every election cycle I can remember,facts are we had two terms of a guy who got blow jobs in the oval office and used a cigar on her among all the others he was doing,we have had eight years of a Muslim sympathizer,now we are going to have eight years of a lying felon with a Muslim brotherhood sympathizer as a chief of staff.
I don’t know how much evidence we need to come to the realization that our Country is filled with people who are all scam artists and crooks of every type,they just admire Hillary for her accomplishments,the perfect crime,she a felon will now be in charge of the entire criminal justice system,our military that she despises,she is the ultimate super hero villain,she has acquired the One Golden ring to control them all.
GOD HELP US ALL
I have received numerous calls from election pollsters and have NOT told them who I’m voting for, I just hang up and block them... I’m sure there are many(thousands) that do not respond to these poll calls either and I’m sure that skews these BS poll#’s also.
There is no enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article103298997.html young vote support for Clinton down from 24 % to 5%
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/14/the-non-religious-are-now-the-countrys-largest-religious-voting-bloc/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-has-the-edge-among-people-planning-to-skip-election/
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/296360-enthusiasm-gap-looms-for-clinton
(http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/voters-demand-government-a-political-reform/
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1182a12016ElectionPredebate.pdf
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